The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Nathan Eovaldi (R) $9,700 Texas Rangers (-141) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Eovaldi, 36, is beginning to show some signs of slowing down in his 15th MLB season. Fortunately for Eovaldi, his last few years were strong enough that even a slightly diminished version is still a high-level pitcher. He comes into Thursday with a 4.02 ERA that is his highest since 2019 but still solid and a 25.2% strikeout rate that probably should be higher based on his swinging strikes.
What he also has is elite Vegas data for this matchup with the Angels. While the Rangers’ moneyline isn’t anything to get excited about, that’s more of a function of the poor offense behind him. The Angels are implied for just 3.3 runs, which is about half a run lower than any other team on the slate.
They rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties with the second-highest strikeout rate and have occasionally led all teams in the latter category. For a pitcher like Eovaldi, who has had bad strikeout luck this season, that could give him a massive boost, especially in terms of his ceiling.
Eovaldi leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection but comes in at 2nd in ownership, making him a solid all-around option. He’s pricey, but we have enough value at the position that it’s fairly easy to get to him, making him a big part of my plans.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jack Perkins (R) $6,600 Athletics (+115) at Detroit Tigers
Perkins is likely extremely grateful to be on the road for this appearance (he’s expected to serve as a long reliever following an opener) after 4 of his 6 starts this season have been at one of the worst pitchers’ parks in baseball in Sacramento. He seems to have shifted permanently to the rotation after opening the season in the bullpen and has an ugly 6.75 ERA that isn’t a reflection of his true ability.
Perkins’ underlying numbers are all right around 4.00, save for his SIERA, which is 3.40. The latter number is more heavily reliant on strikeouts, with Perkins bringing a 27.9% rate into the contest. If I took the name and ERA out of the equation and told you a pitcher with a 3.40 SIERA and 28% strikeout rate was pitching, you’d expect to pay somewhere in the $8,000–$9,000 range at a minimum.
Especially in this matchup: Detroit is a top-5 team in strikeout rate against righties, with a slightly below-average wRC+. They’re not a team I’m going out of my way to target, but with Perkins’ profile, they should provide a nice boost, especially at Comerica Park, which is a slightly below-average park for bats.
Perkins leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal today while also bringing plenty of upside, making him a solid option for all contest types. His status as a long reliever also makes it easier for him to get a potential win bonus, as the A’s getting a lead before he takes the field would still count for him, and he won’t have the 5-inning minimum requirement to qualify.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Framber Valdez (L) $7,300 Detroit Tigers (-135) vs. Athletics
The roller-coaster ride that is Framber Valdez continues on, as he’s now managed to go 11 consecutive starts scoring either fewer than 5 DraftKings points or more than 18. His salary is down thanks to his last two outings being of the poor variety, but today he’s a slight home favorite against the A’s. They tend to push opponents to a wide range of outcomes as well, ranking 6th in strikeout rate against lefties but 8th in wRC+. Anything is possible for Valdez tonight, making him an interesting tournament option at a budget price.
Jesus Luzardo (L) $9,000 Philadelphia Phillies (-163) at Cincinnati Reds
Like the A’s, the Reds also rank top-10 in terms of both wRC+ and strikeouts against lefties, giving their opponents a fairly wide range of outcomes. Unlike the A’s, the Reds get to play in their hitter-friendly home park tonight, but I’m not especially concerned, given Luzardo’s profile. He has an excellent 28.6% strikeout rate this season, and when the ball is put in play, it tends to stay on the ground. He trails only Eovaldi in median and ceiling projection and is tied with Perkins for the Pts/Sal lead, making him probably the best overall pitching option tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Rockies-Dodgers series has come to a merciful end, which opens up the range of teams available for consideration as the top stack of the day. Tonight, our models like the Phillies, another expensive, star-filled team like the Dodgers, albeit one that’s somewhat more affordable on the whole.
Philadelphia has been a slightly below-average team against righties this season, but much of that was due to a terrible first couple of months of the season. Through the end of May, they had an overall wRC+ of just 83; since then, it’s jumped to a much stronger 108.
They also get to play at one of baseball’s best home run parks in Cincinnati, where the weather is offering an additional boost to the long ball, with winds blowing out to left field. For a team as home-run-dependent as the Phillies, that’s an important factor.
Personally, I’m unwilling to spend the $5,400 for Trea Turner at the top of the lineup given his awful play this year, but I will use PlateIQ to create some alternative Phillies stacks (or just roster the 2-5 hitters). That helps relieve some salary while still getting plenty of exposure to the only team on the slate with a total above 5 runs.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Spencer Steer 1B/OF ($4,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Jesus Luzardo)
With Luzardo approaching 50% ownership despite favorable park and weather factors for bats tonight in Cincinnati, it makes a ton of sense to roster hitters against him in lineups where you aren’t using the Phillies lefty. It’s not all that hard to find solid options, either, with Cincinnati a top-5 team in wRC+ against southpaws on the season. Let’s use PlateIQ to identify some candidates:
As you can see, the top 5 bats all have excellent numbers (albeit with some smaller sample sizes beyond the 3 spot). However, Steer, with his cheaper price tag (relative to Elly De La Cruz ($5,600) and Sal Stewart ($4,500)) and multi-positional eligibility, is my favorite of the bunch if you aren’t using full stacks.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,000) Athletics at Detroit Tigers (Framber Valdez)
I wrote up Valdez above, noting his extremely wide range of outcomes this season. That makes him both a solid pitcher to roster and to roster hitters against, as things tend to blow up in a hurry when Valdez is having an off day. That often comes in the form of home runs, especially against righties. 9 of the 11 homers he’s given up this season have been against right-handed bats.
Which makes Langeliers a nightmare matchup for Valdez. The A’s all-star is hitting .327 with a 1.011 OPS against southpaws this season. That includes 8 home runs in just 98 at-bats. He has a massive ceiling tonight.
Jake Croneworth 2B ($2,400) San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
One player I find myself continuously coming back to tonight is Cronenworth. He isn’t the most exciting pick (to put it generously) with a. 183 batting average this season. However, he’s been somewhat unlucky. His BABIP of .221 is about 60 points below his career mark, and he’s a .244 lifetime hitter.
More importantly, he’s extremely cheap. With all of the expensive, high-upside options on the slate, it’s crucial to get some salary relief somewhere. Cronenworth offers that in a matchup against Merrill Kelly ($6,300) and his 5.71 ERA. Literally any nonzero score from Cronenworth feels like a value tonight, so I’ll take my chances.
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Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi
Photo Credit: Imagn
