The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cole Ragans ($9,800) Kansas City Royals (-258) vs. Colorado Rockies
Despite the very small four-game slate, we have one of the best pitching options of the week in Thursday in Cole Ragans. He has the rare combination of being an elite pitcher and having an excellent matchup, as he takes on the Rockies at home.
Ragans has increased his strikeout rate and decreased his xERA in each of his four years in the majors so far, as he seems poised to become one of the game’s best lefties. This year, he has a strikeout rate over 35%, a swinging strike rate over 16%, and just a 2.23 xERA.
While he’s not cheap, there’s an argument that he’s slightly underpriced. That’s due to the difference between his actual ERA of 3.58 and his much better underlying numbers, which suggests he’s just been unlucky.
Now he draws a Rockies team with a 56 wRC+ and 30% strikeout rate against lefties, and they’re implied for a slate low of 3.4 runs. He’s a must-play in all contest types on the afternoon slate, even at his likely high ownership. Ragans leads all pitchers in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection by a solid margin.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Chris Paddack ($7,000) Minnesota Twins (-225) vs. Chicago White Sox
The only arm anywhere near Ragans in terms of Pts/Sal projection is Paddack. Unlike Ragans, he hasn’t been especially good, but a matchup with the White Sox has a way of smoothing that over. Chicago ranks 28th in wRC+ overall this season.
Paddack also hasn’t been as bad as his 7.27 ERA indicates. His underlying metrics are mostly in the mid-fours, which certainly isn’t great but is a bit easier to stomach. It’s still a matchup of bad hitting against bad pitching, but Paddack is more “somewhat bad,” while the White Sox are awful.
The big concern here is the weather, which is currently a yellow/orange in Kevin Roth’s free MLB Weather Report. A delay in mid-game probably means Paddack is done for the afternoon, which severely limits his scoring potential. Keep an eye on the news throughout the day, as a potential moved-up start here would make things more comfortable.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Garret Crochet ($10,300) Boston Red Sox (-172) vs. Seattle Mariners
The better option, in theory, to pair with Paddack is Crochet. The fellow lefty is another young starter who continues to improve, and he’s off to a torrid start in 2025. Through five starts, Crochet has a 1.13 ERA and 28.5% strikeout rate, and he would’ve led qualified starters in K rate last season had he thrown a few more innings.
The problem, of course, is the price tags. Crochet and Ragans cost just over $20,000 combined, and Ragans is pretty clearly the better option of the two when factoring in matchup. The Mariners are a top-ten team in wRC+ against lefties, though they do strike out at the third-highest rate.
That makes Crochet slightly risky, though likely to strike out enough hitters to overcome any potential runs he allows. His elevated salary means he won’t be too popular (at least relative to Ragans), making him a solid pivot.
I’d love to be able to fit both lefties in my lineups today, though we’ll have to find plenty of value at hitter to get there. It will certainly be a contrarian build, though, and is worth considering.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals stack is certainly a good start to the value hunt, with an average salary just over $4,000 for their five hitters. You can free up even more salary by fading $6,000 shortstop Bobby Witt as well, though he has by far the best projection on the team.
Either way, their 5.3 implied total leads the slate and they’re cheap enough to allow you to get up to at least one top pitcher even when including Witt.
That makes them a pretty obvious stack against German Marquez ($5,500) and his 8.27 ERA this season.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Dylan Moores 2B/3B ($4,300) Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (Garret Crochet)
Typically in smaller slates like this, it’s important to be contrarian and build leverage off the popular players. The obvious method is to roster hitters against the popular pitchers you aren’t playing. I went looking through PlateIQ to find the best hitter to roster against Crochet in my lineups that fade him:
That would be Moore, who is set to lead off for the Mariners lineup and has elite numbers against lefties. I’d stay away from him due to the difficult matchup on a larger slate, but he’s worth a shot in larger field GPPs this week due to the ownership dynamics.
Trevor Larnach OF ($3,300) Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Shane Smith)
The Twins five-run total is second only to the Royals on Thursday, with a similar amount of value to be found in their lineup. Perhaps the best option is Larnach, who is just $3,300 and batting cleanup against the White Sox’s Shane Smith ($6,000).
Smith is making just his fifth big league start today and has a 2.82 ERA but ERA indicators are around two runs higher. He’s due for some regression, and on top of that, the Chicago bullpen has a 4.58 ERA this year.
While the weather in this game is a concern, it’s less so for hitters. If anything, a mid-game delay helps bats, since it could potentially end the day early. I’d still watch out for a potential PPD, but I’m not especially concerned on the hitter side.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Cole Ragans
Photo Credit: Getty Images
