The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $10,600 Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. San Diego Padres
There are a bunch of strong pitching options on Saturday’s slate, but it’s hard to argue against Yamamoto for the top overall spot. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball ever since arriving in the USA, and he’s putting together another excellent season. He owns a 2.67 ERA with an 8-5 record while averaging 8.29 strikeouts per nine innings.
Yamamoto gets a strong matchup Saturday vs. the Padres. While they entered the year with big expectations, San Diego has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. They’re dead last in the MLB in runs per game, and they’re 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
Unsurprisingly, Yamamoto has elite Vegas metrics in this matchup. He leads all pitchers in both moneyline odds (-250) and opponent implied run total (3.4), and pitchers with comparable marks have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.38 (per the Trends tool).
The strikeout potential is the only thing that keeps Yamamoto from being one of the best arms in fantasy. He’s not a bad strikeout pitcher – his strikeout rate puts him in the 62nd percentile – but his numbers are down significantly from previous seasons. The good news is that San Diego has the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handers, so Yamamoto has a bit more upside than usual in that department.
Add it all up, and he’s the safest option at the position.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Shota Imanaga (L) $7,400 Chicago Cubs (-161) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Like Yamamoto, Imanaga came over from Japan in 2024 and found success right out of the gates. He pitched to a 2.91 ERA for the Cubs while compiling a 15-3 record in 29 starts.
Unlike Yamamoto, Imanaga has regressed a bit since then. His ERA slipped slightly to 3.73 last year, and he’s at 4.30 so far this season. However, the advanced metrics suggest that Imanaga is still a very capable pitcher. His xERA checks in nearly a full run lower than his actual mark (3.65), while he’s racked up 92 strikeouts in 96.1 innings. Home runs have been his biggest red flag, allowing just under two per nine innings.
That shouldn’t be a huge issue vs. the Cardinals. They’re merely 21st in ISO against southpaws this season, and they’re exactly league average in wRC+. If Imanaga can keep the ball in the ballpark on Saturday, he should be able to limit the damage vs. this lineup.
The Cardinals are currently implied for just 3.7 runs in this contest, which is the fifth-lowest mark on the slate. Each of the pitchers with a lower opponent implied run total is priced at $9,300 or more, so Imanaga represents a nice source of savings. He’s also the fourth-largest favorite on the slate, while he ranks first in THE BAT X in projected Plus/Minus.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Greene (R) $8,700 Cincinnati Reds (-125) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Greene will make his season debut on Saturday, and there’s always a bit of risk in targeting a pitcher in his return from injury. He will very likely be on a pitch count, so the odds of him going deep into the game are slim. That said, Greene is extremely talented, so he can do a lot of damage in just five or six innings. He pitched to a 2.76 ERA with a 93rd percentile strikeout rate last season, and the Orioles have the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this year. His $8,700 salary could end up being his cheapest price tag of the year, so take advantage while you can.
Jesus Luzardo (L) $8,800 Philadelphia Phillies (-155) at Kansas City Royals
The Royals have massively disappointed this season, currently owning the worst record in baseball. They’ll have their hands full with Luzardo on Saturday, who has followed up last year’s breakout campaign with another strong showing this season. His 3.23 xERA puts him in the 79th percentile, while he’s racked up 116 punchouts in 97.1 innings. He also has elite ground-ball and hard-hit rates, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four outings.
Sonny Gray (R) $8,400 Boston Red Sox (-167) at Los Angeles Angels
Gray is projected to be one of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate, and it’s easy to see why. He’s been awesome this season – 9-1 record, 2.69 ERA – while the Angels have been dreadful. Specifically, their offense has the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers, so Gray offers a bit more strikeout upside than usual. A lack of strikeouts is the only thing that typically holds Gray back, and that might not be the case on Saturday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants’ series at Coors Field did not get off to a good start on Friday. They managed just three runs, while the Rockies put up 15 in a comfortable win. That was a game where the Giants had their ace on the bump, so it’s a disheartening result for a team that has underperformed all year.
That said, the Giants are once again popping in THE BAT X for Saturday’s slate. They’re currently implied for 6.4 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin.
They were initially slated to face Tomoyuki Sugano, but he has been scratched due to a back injury. Sean Sullivan will make the start instead, which has the potential to be a big win for San Francisco. Sullivan has made just four starts at the MLB level, and he’s struggled to an 8.64 ERA and a 2.16 HR/9.
The Giants’ struggles this season have also made them very affordable for their trip to Coors. Their top stack will set you back just $22,700, which makes them easy enough to pair with a couple of solid arms on this slate.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Stowers, 1B/OF ($4,800) Miami Marlins at Athletics (Aaron Civale)
The game between the Marlins and Athletics is another one that should offer plenty of offensive fireworks on the Fourth of July. The total currently sits at 11 runs, while the Marlins are implied for a healthy 5.5.
Stowers enters this contest in elite recent form. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Aaron Civale, and he’s feasted against right-handers over the past 30 days (via Plate IQ):
Stowers launched two homers yesterday against the Athletics, and there’s no reason he can’t put together another strong showing on Saturday. He owns the top non-Coors projected Plus/Minus in our blended projection set.
Nate Eaton, OF ($2,500) Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Sam Aldegheri)
If you’re going to load up on Coors Field and a couple of expensive arms, you’re going to need to find some cheap one-offs to round out your lineup. Eaton fits that description perfectly. He’s currently slated to bat leadoff in the Red Sox’s projected lineup at just $2,500.
Eaton will be on the positive side of his splits vs. Sam Aldegheri, who is not a pitcher you need to fear. He owns a career ERA north of 5.50, and his 5.43 xERA isn’t much better.
Ozzie Albies, 2B ($4,300) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
Albies is a switch-hitter, but he has historically been much better as a righty than a lefty. That makes him an appealing option Saturday vs. Sean Manaea. Albies has a career 133 wRC+ against southpaws, and Manaea is far from an elite option. He owns a 4.71 ERA so far this season, giving Albies plenty of upside for a reasonable salary.
Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Photo Credit: Imagn
