The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
MacKenzie Gore (L) $8,600 Texas Rangers (-135) vs. Athletics
The Rangers took a big swing this offseason, acquiring Gore from the Nationals for five prospects. So far, Gore hasn’t quite lived up to that price tag. He owns a 4.15 ERA through his first five outings, and his xERA (4.71) and FIP (4.44) aren’t any better. Gore has been victimized by a bunch of hard contact, including a third percentile barrel rate and 1.73 homers per nine innings.
However, Gore excels in one key area: Strikeouts. He averaged 10.43 punchouts per nine innings last year, and he’s at 12.12 so far this season. His strikeout rate puts him in the 91st percentile, and he’s already had two starts with nine strikeouts with the Rangers.
Gore should be able to keep the strikeouts coming on Saturday. He’s taking on the Athletics, who have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws so far this season. They’re also just 24th in wRC+ vs. left-handers, so it’s a fantastic matchup overall.
Gore also stands out as one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings. His price tag comes with an 89% Bargain Rating, which is easily the best mark on the slate. He ultimately ranks first at pitcher in projected Plus/Minus, making him the top option at the position.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryan Weathers (L) $7,700 New York Yankees (-153) at Houston Astros
There are a bunch of teams off to dreadful starts this season, including the Astros. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons, falling just short in 2025. However, they’re currently sitting at just 10-17, putting them in dead last in the AL West. The pitching staff has been the biggest issue, with the team allowing 6.0 runs per game. That’s the second-worst mark in baseball.
The Yankees are solid favorites against the Astros on Saturday despite taking the field in Houston. In fact, their -153 moneyline odds are the biggest on the entire slate.
Weathers will get the ball for the Yankees in this matchup, and he’s impressed to start his tenure in New York. He’s pitched to a 3.18 ERA and 3.27 FIP with 11.44 strikeouts per nine innings. Weathers also had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his final two seasons in Miami, so he’s proven to be a quality MLB pitcher.
Weathers has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five starts, including three straight. He’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, racking up eight strikeouts across 7.1 scoreless innings vs. the Royals. While the Astros are definitely a tougher matchup, their 4.2-run implied team total is still tied for fourth-lowest on the slate. Ultimately, Weathers is too cheap.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $9,400 Milwaukee Brewers (-140) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
In terms of pure talent, Misiorowski is probably the best pitcher who will toe the rubber on Saturday. He’s ripped through the MLB after making his debut last season, and he owns a 2.89 xERA and 14.18 K/9 through five starts this year. The Pirates are no longer a punching bag on offense – they’re 12th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season – but Misiorowski still leads all starters in both K Prediction (8.05) and opponent implied run total (3.8). He’s the most expensive starter on the slate, but he also has the highest median and ceiling projections.
Cole Ragans (L) $8,500 Kansas City Royals (-152) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Ragans is priced similarly to Gore, and the two players ultimately have very similar outlooks. Gore has a slightly better opponent implied team total, while Ragans has a slight edge in K Prediction and moneyline odds. The two players also have nearly identical ownership projections, so choosing between the two is like splitting hairs. The big difference is that the Angels’ projected lineup scares me more than the Athletics’. Los Angeles has fared well against southpaws to start the year, giving Ragans a smidge more downside. He’s also struggled with control recently, walking 12 batters across his past two starts. Still, he has more than enough upside to warrant some GPP consideration.
Brady Singer (R) $6,300 Cincinnati Reds (-110) vs. Detroit Tigers
If you’re looking for a value SP2, you could do worse than Singer. He ranks fourth in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X projections, and he has historically been pretty reliable. He’s not off to the best start this season, but he’s posted an ERA of 4.03 or better in three of the past four seasons. Singer will also get the ball at home on Saturday, where he had a 3.29 ERA and 9.57 K/9 last season.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees are off to another fantastic start this season. They have the best record in the American League at 17-9, excelling on offense and on the bump. They’ve scored the sixth-most runs per game this season (5.15) while surrendering the third fewest (3.42).
The Yankees did lose Giancarlo Stanton to “right lower leg tightness” on Friday, but they have more than enough offense to overcome his absence. It starts with Aaron Judge, who remains one of the most intimidating batters in all of baseball. Ben Rice has also followed up on last year’s breakout performance with an even better start in 2026, and each of the top five hitters in their projected lineup grade out as above-average against right-handers (via Plate IQ):
The Yankees will square off with an exploitable right-hander Saturday in Mike Burrows. He’s pitched to a 6.75 ERA so far this season, and he’s allowed 1.69 homers per nine innings. Some of the advanced metrics suggest Burrows has been a bit unlucky, but there’s no guarantee his luck changes vs. an elite lineup.
New York is ultimately implied for 5.0 runs in this matchup, which is the second-best mark on the slate. Only the Dodgers are higher (5.3), and their top stack will cost you nearly $3,000 more.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Adolis Garcia, OF ($2,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
The Phillies are another team that is off to a disastrous start this season. Their offense is merely 28th in runs per game, and they’re in dead last in the NL East standings at 8-18. Still, this lineup has plenty of talent, so it’s only a matter of time before they turn things around.
Garcia is slated to hit cleanup in the Phillies’ projected lineup at just $2,800. That’s a pretty nice combination. It gives him the top projected Plus/Minus among all batters in the blended projection set.
Garcia hasn’t been at his best against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Bryce Elder is off to a phenomenal start this season. However, he had ERAs of 5.30 and 6.52 in the past two seasons, so it’s possible it’s just a small-sample mirage.
Michael Busch, 1B ($3,700) Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (Roki Sasaki)
The Dodgers are so good that they simply don’t have room for all their good players. That was the case with Busch, who was traded to the Cubs before the start of the 2024 season. He broke out with the Cubs, launching 34 homers with a 140 wRC+ last season.
Busch will get a chance at revenge against the team that traded him away on Saturday. He’s not off to the best start in 2026, but perhaps that will change vs. Roki Sasaki. Sasaki was considered a can’t-miss prospect when he signed with the Dodgers, but he has yet to find success at the MLB level as a starter. He owns a 6.11 ERA this season, and his 5.66 xERA isn’t much better.
Matt McLain, 2B ($3,200) Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers (Jack Flaherty)
McLain looked like a potential star when he made his debut with the Reds in 2023. He had 16 homers and 14 steals in just 89 games despite being just 23 years old. However, he was forced to miss all of 2024 while recovering from an injury, and he struggled when he made his return to the lineup in 2025.
McLain has yet to reach his pre-injury highs, but he remains one of the most intriguing power-speed guys in the middle infield. He has two homers and four steals so far this season, and his matchup vs. Jack Flaherty isn’t particularly intimidating. Flaherty has just a 4.84 xERA so far this season, and all of his advanced metrics are underwhelming. McLain ultimately ranks first among middle infielders in projected Plus/Minus, making him an interesting target.
Pictured: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger
Photo Credit: Imagn
