The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cole Ragans ($10,300) Kansas City Royals (-250) vs. Chicago White Sox
On Monday’s slate, there’s Cole Ragans and then there’s everybody else. The 27-year-old has taken a massive leap forward this year, with a 35.9% strikeout rate that’s second in the majors only to Mackenzie Gore. While it hasn’t shown up in his ERA yet, his underlying metrics reflect that he’s just been unlucky.
Through six starts, Ragans has a 4.40 ERA. However, his xERA and SIERA are both under 2.50, which means he’s due for some serious positive regression. Tonight feels like a likely time for that to happen, thanks to his matchup with the White Sox.
Chicago is one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. Against lefties like Ragans, they’re more garden-variety bad than truly awful, but we certainly aren’t shying away from a team with a 70 wRC+ against southpaws.
Vegas is clearly on Ragans’s side as well, with the Royals the heaviest favorites on the slate and the White Sox with just a 3.2-run implied total. That adds up to make Ragans the clear leader in median and ceiling projections. He’s an elite option for all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Matthew Boyd ($8,300) Chicago Cubs (-160) vs. San Francisco Giants
There are other arms that are technically projecting better than Boyd in terms of Pts/Sal, but a few of those are relievers getting pressed into starting duty. Those are always tough plays, as it’s hard to predict whether they’ll see a full starter’s workload or simply serve as an “opener” for a couple of innings.
Thus, Boyd is the right mix of value and safety — relatively speaking — on Monday. He’s taking on a Giants team that is well below average against lefties at home in Chicago. Crucially, we’ve got very pitcher-friendly weather in Chicago tonight, with temperatures in the 50s and wind blowing in.
Boyd has been a bit lucky this season, particularly in the home run department, with his HR/FB ratio about half his career average. That’s led to a 2.70 ERA that’s around a run lower than his underlying indicators. However, the conditions tonight should help preserve that luck, so we can feel good about him for at least one more start.
Boyd’s 20% strikeout rate makes him a relatively unexciting option, but he’s a strong choice for cash games with San Francisco implied for just 3.4 runs.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Ronel Blanco ($7,300) Houston Astros (-105) at Milwaukee Brewers
Ronel Blanco has been a “regression candidate” most of the season, with his underlying numbers in a few categories much stronger than his actual results. The most noteworthy is his strikeout rate. He’s punching out just 21.7% of opposing hitters, but his 14.7% swinging strike rate is elite.
Typically, that swinging strike rate would equate to somewhere around a 30% strikeout rate. Additionally, his 3.47 xERA is more than 1.5 runs lower than his actual ERA of 5.08, although his ERA predictors are something of a mixed bag overall.
Normally, I’d prefer to wait for a strong matchup before rostering a player in hopes of positive regression. We don’t have that luxury with Blanco, as the Brewers are roughly league average against righties in both run production and strikeouts.
That makes Blanco an extremely risky but potentially rewarding option on Monday’s slate. With a fairly low ownership projection, he’s worth the risk in GPPs, though I’d stay away in cash games.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
Any time we can get the top offense on the slate in terms of implied total for less than $4,000 a player, they’re going to be the top stack.
That’s the case for Kansas City tonight, as they take on Shane Smith ($7,000) of the White Sox. Smith has a 2.23 ERA on the season, but underlying metrics are at or around four. It seems unlikely that he sustains his elite ERA much longer, considering his 3% HR/FB ratio and .247 BABIP are both well below league average.
Kauffman Stadium in KC is a top five park for hitters, and we also have favorable offensive weather in the forecast. Plus, Chicago’s bullpen has a 4.47 ERA as a team — so even if Smith performs well, there’s still time for this stack to come through.
Finally, assuming you’re rostering Ragans (you should be), we also get a nice bit of correlation between the top pitcher of the slate and this stack.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Heliot Ramos OF ($4,000) San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (Matthew Boyd)
I mentioned in the section about Matthew Boyd that the Giants are a below-average team against lefties. That’s true as a whole, but that doesn’t mean they lack any hitters on the strong side of their platoon splits.
If anyone is going to trouble Boyd tonight, it’s Ramos, as we can see in PlateIQ:
He’s also fairly priced for his leadoff spot in the Giants lineup, making him a solid leverage play against Boyd.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,500) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets (Griffin Canning)
Arizona is the other team implied for a similar total as the Royals, though their top hitters are priced much more appropriately for that distinction. That makes it hard to fully stack them without rostering some shaky pitchers.
However, we can sneak in one or two options. My favorite is Marte, who missed the start of the season but has had a hot start to his 2025 campaign. He’s hitting .303 through 10 games and should have plenty of RBI opportunities hitting behind Corbin Carrol ($6,100).
Juan Soto OF ($5,000) New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
This is something of a buy-low spot for Soto, who is “just” $5,000 after regularly having a salary that started with a 6 for the early part of the season.
He hasn’t been bad by any stretch, with a 130 wRC+ that makes him a top-50 hitter in baseball. He also hasn’t lived up to expectations given the $50 million a year contract he signed this offseason.
The good news is he’s been unlucky, with his HR/FB rate and BABIP all well below his career averages and his xWOBA of .412 well above his actual mark. There’s no promise he breaks out today, but I’ll be getting some exposure to him most days until his price rises to its former peak.
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Pictured: Ketel Marte
Photo Credit: Getty Images
