The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $11,000 New York Yankees (-105) at Tampa Bay Rays
In terms of both salary and our projections, it’s Schlittler and then everyone else on Monday. He’s a full $2,000 more expensive than any other pitcher on the slate, but he also leads the field in median projection by more than 3 points and ceiling projection by more than 6. That makes this a tough decision on whether or not to roster him, especially since he and the Yankees are technically underdogs in Tampa tonight.
That betting line has far more to do with the Yankees’ sputtering offense than it does Schlittler, though. He has improved on his impressive 2025 rookie season by getting his ERA down to 2.08 and his strikeout rate up to 29.7% across 18 starts in 2026. That’s a big enough sample size – and he has strong enough underlying numbers – to believe he’s actually just that good.
Unfortunately, we should anticipate a worse-than-average performance against the Rays. Tampa is a top-3 team in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and strikes out at the lowest rate. The question is whether a below-average performance by the Cy Young favorite is still better than anyone else on the slate – and it very well could be.
I don’t think he’s a must-play by any stretch, especially given the expensive hitters we will want to fit in. However, he’s a rock-solid bet for at least a solid performance, which we can’t say about many other arms today, making him a strong choice for cash games and tighter builds.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Eric Lauer (L) $6,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-223) vs. Colorado Rockies
When I started looking into this slate and saw that the Dodgers had a southpaw starter taking the mound against the Rockies, I was all in regardless of the game’s location. That it’s not at Coors Field obviously makes things even stronger for Lauer, as he gets the singular best matchup available for pitchers in 2026.
Colorado ranks dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching while simultaneously striking out at the highest rate. No team is as bad against righties (in either category) as they are against lefties, making this the all-around best matchup for pitchers. Keep in mind, those numbers from Colorado would be even worse with a different home ballpark. The thin air makes the ball spin less, reducing movement, which cuts strikeouts by about 10% relative to league average.
Lauer isn’t great, with a 4.84 ERA this season and a pitiful 14.7% strikeout rate. His salary reflects those numbers, though, both of which will very likely look a lot better this time tomorrow. He’s the clear Pts/Sal leader and my favorite arm on the slate, in part thanks to his price tag freeing up enough salary to “stack” him with hitters from his team.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Griffin Jax (R) $7,500 Tampa Bay Rays (-115) vs. New York Yankees
The last time the Yankees had Aaron Judge in the lineup was May 31. Since then, they’ve had a team wRC+ of just 87, with a 25.2% strikeout rate, both in the bottom 10 in baseball in that time frame. That’s why Griffin Jax is a slight favorite tonight despite being nowhere near the pitcher Schlittler is. His 3.45 ERA is hiding an xERA over 5, and his 23.4% strikeout rate isn’t anything special, but both might be enough to beat an extremely cold Yankees lineup. He trails only Lauer in Pts/Sal projection.
Landen Roupp (R) $8,300 San Francisco Giants (-105) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
On the other side of the regression argument is Roupp, who brings a 4.55 ERA into the contest with the Blue Jays, but ERA predictors are mostly in the low 3s. He also has a solid 26% strikeout rate and a home game in a pitcher’s park with pitcher-friendly weather, thanks to sub-60-degree temperatures. Toronto is a slightly below-average offense against right-handed pitching this season, though they have a low strikeout rate. That makes Roupp a fairly safe, but somewhat low-upside, option at his price tag.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
While I was excited about the fact that Lauer gets to face the Rockies at home, it would obviously be much more fun for Dodgers hitters to take on the Rockies in Colorado. Even so, they have a slate-leading 6.1-run implied total that is nearly a full run above any competitor tonight, making them a pretty clear top stack even at their price point.
Lineups attempting to roster Schlittler can’t really stack the Dodgers, and given his popularity (and that of the $9,000 Kevin Gausman), we should get a bit of an ownership break on the Dodgers. That’s even more interesting when you consider pairing them with Lauer, who both opens up salary and builds in some slight correlation.
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland ($5,800) has an ERA in the 7s this season. Some of that is due to his home games at Coors Field, but not all. His home ERA is a bit above 8.00, while it falls to “just” 6.38 ERA on the road. Even giving him credit for the better number, that’s a pitcher with an ERA north of 6 taking on the best lineup in baseball, so this stack is fairly obvious.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
James Wood OF ($5,900) Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros (Mike Burrows)
The other notable game for offense takes place in DC, where both teams have implied totals above five. I’m interested in stacking both of them as alternatives to the Dodgers, as long as the weather holds out — there’s a strong chance of rain during most of this game’s scheduled time.
The Nationals are my preferred option, though, thanks to some absurd platoon splits. Not from their hitters, but from Astros starter Mike Burrows ($6,500), whose brutal numbers against left-handed hitting are very noticeable in PlateIQ:
Four of the Nationals’ first five hitters are lefties, starting with Wood. He’s the best, but certainly not the only, option.
Jose Altuve 2B ($3,600) Houston Astros at Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
If you’re trying to get some exposure to the Astros/Nationals game while still rostering the Dodgers’ stack, Altuve is the way to go. He’s drastically underpriced for the leadoff hitter in a lineup implied for more than 5 runs tonight, especially considering he’s hitting in front of the best hitter in baseball, Yordan Alvarez ($6,200).
The 36-year-old Altuve is having a down year and seems to be declining, but his 97 wRC+ overall is still roughly league average. I’d obviously prefer to pair him with Alvarez if I had the salary (and open OF spot), but Altuve is a cheap way to get some potential exposure to Alvarez’s RBIs and Astros production in general.
Ivan Herrera C ($3,900) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Shane Drohan)
Outside of both starters in Los Angeles, the only left-handed pitcher tonight is the Brewers’ Shane Drohan ($7,300), a 27-year-old rookie who has outperformed his prospect grades so far this season with a 3.12 ERA overall through 10 bullpen appearances and 7 starts.
The Cardinals are a roughly average team against southpaws overall, but DH/C Ivan Herrera does his best work against them. His .878 OPS against lefties is more than 100 points higher than against righties in 2026, and his career splits are actually slightly wider. He’s a $4,500-plus hitter against left-handed pitching with a $3,900 price tag tonight, making him an excellent option at a thin position for bats.
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Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
