The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Parker Messick (L) $9,500 Cleveland Guardians (-167) at Los Angeles Angels
After another double-digit strikeout performance last week, we once again have Cleveland’s Parker Messick as the clear best pitching option on the slate. Technically still a rookie since he threw just under 40 innings in 2025, the southpaw is averaging just under 20 DraftKings points per game this season, but regularly challenges for 30 or so points with some tougher starts mixed in.
He remains underpriced for his performance, with a 2.54 ERA and a 25.7% strikeout rate this season. I’m not sure if that’s a function of the field being slow to roster Messick or DraftKings being unwilling to elevate his salary too rapidly, but either way he should be more expensive on his own merits, even in a neutral matchup.
This is not a neutral matchup, though. The Angels remain one of the best teams to roster left-handed pitchers against, thanks to a bottom-third wRC+ and a top-three strikeout rate against lefties. The latter number gives Messick a massive ceiling, while the former explains the Angels’ 3.4-run implied total, one of the lowest on the slate.
Our ownership projections have Messick as the second-most popular pitcher but still very popular, so there’s a contrarian case for fading him in tournaments, but in my book the spot is too good to pass up.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Chase Burns (R) $11,000 Cincinnati Reds (-158) at San Francisco Giants
The “pay up to be contrarian” pitcher on Monday’s slate is the Reds’ flamethrower Chase Burns, who has a similar ERA to Messick at 2.51 but a superior strikeout rate of 29%. That’s not enough to justify a $1,500 price bump, though, especially with the Giants being a fairly low-strikeout team. Burns wouldn’t be my first pick to lead all pitchers in scoring today if I had to bet it at even odds. However, his ownership projection is about one-third of that of the two other top arms, and he’s probably more likely than that to finish with the highest score, making him an interesting option to pair with cheaper hitter stacks.
Zack Wheeler (R) $10,800 Philadelphia Phillies (-115) at Seattle Mariners
The third option at the top – and the one projected to be most popular – is Wheeler. With a road game in Seattle, the best pitcher’s park in baseball, it’s a solid spot for the Phillies ace. Seattle is a slightly above-average lineup against righties but not a team we have to stay away from, and Wheeler is the only pitcher on the slate with a 30%+ strikeout rate. I prefer Messick at a lower cost/ownership projection, but Wheeler is an excellent option in his own right.
Robbie Ray (L) $8,000 San Diego Padres (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Assuming you don’t want to pay close to five figures on both of your starters, you need to find some savings somewhere. Robbie Ray might be the best option, especially in this matchup. While Ray has a mediocre 20.2% strikeout rate, the Pirates strike out at the highest rate in the league against lefties, with a bottom-five wRC+. That’s plenty of upside relative to his salary, though pricing is still pretty tight if you attempt to pair him with Wheeler/Burns in particular.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
This is an interesting slate in that the best pitching options are all fairly pricey, and so is the best stack. That’s the Twins, who come in at over $5,000 per hitter, largely thanks to the location of their game.
They’re in Sacramento to take on the A’s, with the market and DFS pricing algorithms both firmly adjusting to the Coors Field of the AL. Minnesota leads the slate with a 5.9-run implied total, nearly a full run higher than any other team.
The ballpark is the biggest factor, but the matchup with Jeffrey Springs ($5,300) doesn’t hurt either. The A’s lefty has a 6.63 ERA at home, strikes out under 20% of opposing hitters, and has an above-average flyball rate. The Twins rank a solid 13th against southpaws, so it’s hard to see anything but a very tough game for Springs tonight.
Finding the salary for the Twins is difficult if you want to roster two of the top pitchers (even generously including Ray in that group), but it is theoretically possible. I’ll probably go with a four-hitter stack and fade Kody Clemens myself, since paying $5,400 for the number six hitter in the lineup with a lefty-on-lefty matchup doesn’t seem worth it personally.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jeff McNeil 2B ($3,700) Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (Zebby Matthews)
The other reason I’m fading Clemens is because we can get a second baseman from this game for much cheaper by looking to the A’s lineup. McNeil is projected to hit second and comes in $1,700 cheaper than Clemens, making it much easier to build a lineup around this game.
Of course, the reason McNeil is so much cheaper is that he isn’t great, hitting just .262 with limited power. However, neither is his opponent, Twins starter Zabby Matthews. PlateIQ also revealed that Matthews is a bit worse against lefties, furthering the benefit to McNeil:
McNeil still isn’t the most exciting play, but he’s a solid value as the number-two hitter on a team implied for 4.8 runs.
Lars Nootbaar OF ($3,300) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (Kevin Gausman)
Sticking with the theme of cheap hitters near the top of their team’s lineup, we have the Diamondbacks’ Nootbaar. Arizona has a strong 4.3-run implied total at home against the Cubs, who are starting Kevin Gausman and his 4.58 ERA today.
Nootbaar is set to lead off the Arizona lineup and is on the stronger side of his platoon splits, with his average against right-handed pitching almost 100 points higher than against lefties. Like McNeil, this isn’t a huge ceiling play, but rostering him makes it much easier to afford the Twins stack as well as top pitchers.
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Pictured: Parker Messick
Photo Credit: Imagn
