The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Nolan McLean (R) $9,400 New York Mets (-130) vs. Boston Red Sox
Nola McLean stands out from the group of 24 scheduled starting pitchers with the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all starting pitchers in play. He also has the second-highest strikeout prediction and is one of 4 pitchers tied for matching the most Pro Trends.
McLean has exceeded salary-based expectations in 3 of his last 4 starts, with over 19 DraftKings points in those 3 contests. He has worked at least 6 innings in each of those 4 starts, racking up 30 strikeouts in 25 innings and allowing 8 earned runs on 20 hits.
The 24-year-old righty showed his upside with a dominating performance against the Reds to start that run of success, earning 34.8 DraftKings points with 7 strong innings and 9 strikeouts in Cincinnati. He had another great game with 27.3 DraftKings points against the Blue Jays two starts ago and then posted 19.3 DraftKings points against the Braves in his most recent outing.
While the Mets have been a mess this season, McLean seems to be finding his footing and starting to live up to the lofty expectations placed on him coming into the season. He has huge strikeout upside and a very high ceiling, even though he has had a few rocky outings this year as well.
The Red Sox have been an excellent matchup to attack for most of the season, but they have been playing much better lately. They’re still usually winning low-scoring contests, though, so McLean has a good chance at a big number even if he can’t get his 7th win of the year. Even after their recent surge, the Red Sox still have the third-lowest run total in the majors this season.
McLean isn’t as expensive as some of the other big-name starters on Friday, and he has the 3rd-highest Plus/Minus projection on the board as a result of his affordable salary and good upside.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray (L) $6,800 San Francisco Giants (-160) vs. Colorado Rockies
Ray is potentially an enormous bargain with his salary under $7,000. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on Friday and has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, indicating that he is much more affordable on DraftKings compared to other DFS sites.
If this game were at Coors Field, Ray’s low salary would make more sense, but since it’s in San Francisco, he shapes up to be an excellent value play. He faced the Rockies at Coors Field last Saturday, and he went 6 innings and logged 4 strikeouts to get 14.7 DraftKings points.
He was even better in his 3 games just before that Coors Field outing, allowing zero earned runs in 22⅓ innings over that span with 16 punchouts. In those 3 contests, Ray earned 31.8, 30.4, and 23 DraftKings points, even though those matchups were against solid offenses in the Athletics and the Braves.
Ray has averaged 18.0 DraftKings points per game in his 9 home starts this season, going 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA and just a .180 batting average against him at Oracle Park this season.
The 34-year-old lefty has had a drop in his strikeout numbers over the last few seasons, but he’s still worth a look at this low salary in a great matchup against the Rockies. Colorado’s offense has been much better lately than it was early in the season, but they still rank below league average in almost every measure. They have the highest K% in the MLB against southpaws at 26.1%, which could set Ray up for a throwback strikeout performance.
Even if he doesn’t rack up the Ks, Ray should be able to put together a strong enough outing to be an excellent value at this salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Sandy Alcantara (R) $8,000 Miami Marlins (-118) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Marlins are hosting the Guardians this weekend in a fun interleague matchup at LoanDepot Park. With Norway and England meeting in Miami on Saturday in the World Cup, it should be a great atmosphere for an intriguing series between teams pushing for a playoff spot.
It has been an up-and-down season for Alcantara, which makes him too high-risk for cash games, but his upside makes him a solid option for tournament builds. He has 10 wins on the year, but he also has a 4.08 ERA. When things go wrong, he’s had some brutal outings, but when he’s on his game, he can produce very solid returns. He has 19-plus DraftKings points in 6 of his last 7 outings, but he has under 6 DraftKings points in 3 of his last 9 games as well.
Alcantara was excellent on the road against the A’s in his most recent start, allowing just 1 run in 8 strong innings. He earned 31.2 DraftKings points with 8 strikeouts in that outing, which was his best start since posting 40.8 DraftKings points back on April 1 against the White Sox.
Alcantara has the ability to dominate, and his matchup against the Guardians should be a solid one. The Guardians are still dealing with some injuries, most notably to Jose Ramirez (hand). Over the last 30 days, they have scored the second-fewest runs in the MLB, while hitting just .219 as a team with an 83 wRC+ as a team, meaning they are 17% below league average at run creation over that span.
While Alcantara does bring risk of a blowup, his recent production shows that he has enough upside to be a great option at this salary for this home outing on Friday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
The Orioles are in a great spot against the Royals after avoiding a three-game sweep by the visiting Cubs with a 3-2 win on Thursday. They’ll be in a good matchup against Luinder Avila ($5,600), who has a 5.05 ERA and 1.59 WHIP this season. Avila is a solid 4-1 since moving to the rotation 7 games ago, but he has a 1.42 WHIP over those 30⅓ innings, issuing 19 walks and giving up 24 hits. Lefties have especially thrived against Avila, with a .394 wOBA and .182 ISO against him.
Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson lead this Orioles stack as strong anchor plays to build around. Alonso averaged 8.5 DraftKings points per game over his last 13 games and is averaging 8.4 DraftKings points per game on the season. He brings good power upside and is up to 20 home runs in his first season in Baltimore.
Taylor Ward seems to be finding his rhythm after a slow start and has hit safely in 6 of his last 7 games, and Adley Rutschman always brings a good ceiling as one of the best bats from behind the plate. Blaze Alexander is a solid value to round out the stack and went 10-for-30 (.333) with a triple, a stolen base, and 7.0 DraftKings points per contest in his last 8 games.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
George Springer OF ($3,300) Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres (J.P. Sears)
In the aggregate projections, Springer has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the board. He and the Jays get a good matchup against lefty J.P. Sears. He brings a very high ceiling and some excellent value potential at this affordable salary.
Springer missed a week with a personal situation but was able to return to the field on Wednesday, going 1-for-4 with his 9th homer of the season and 18 DraftKings points. He has been limited to 64 games this season, but he’s hitting .222 with a .308 wOBA overall this season after hitting .271 with a .374 wOBA over his last 18 games.
The veteran 36-year-old righty has hit .246 against lefties with a .353 wOBA in the split. If he’s in his typical leadoff spot on Friday night against Sears, he’ll be a great place to get good value and upside this Friday.
Rafael Devers 3B ($3,800) San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (Tanner Gordon)
Devers has the 3rd-highest Plus/Minus projection of all hitters on Friday’s slate in the aggregate projections and the highest of all the options at 1B. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 6 of his last 8 games and is in a great matchup to attack.
Devers has hit safely in 11 of his last 13 games, going 15-for-46 (.326) with two doubles and 6 home runs over that span, resulting in a .493 wOBA and .435 ISO. He has a 20.5% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour during that run of production, and he has 9 hard-hit batted balls in his last 7 games.
He’ll be in a smash spot against Tanner Gordon, who has allowed 11 home runs in his 11 games this season. Lefties like Devers have 9 of those 11 home runs, with a .333 batting average, .382 wOBA, and a 14.7% barrel rate against Gordon on the season. Here’s how the Giants stack up against Gordon in our PlateIQ tool:
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 2B/3B ($2,700) Athletics at Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)
Kuroda-Grauer moved to the leadoff spot on Thursday and could be a great value if he’s back in that spot again on Friday and moving forward. The 23-year-old righty has a top-6 Plus/Minus projection at both positions where he is eligible and makes sense as a cheap play with good run production upside against the White Sox.
In Triple-A, Kuroda-Grauer hit .352 in 42 games with 4 stolen bases and a .395 wOBA. Before moving to Triple-A, he had 6 home runs and 11 stolen bases in just 33 games at Double-A. While his big-play events have lagged since his two promotions, his contact skills have played up enough to make him a great value play.
Since his promotion, he has gone 15-for-34 (.441) with three doubles, but he was caught stealing in his only attempt. He’s still averaging a solid 7.0 DraftKings points per contest, with the potential for more if he hits leadoff and his speed starts to translate to more production in the majors. His power could also come along as he adjusts to MLB pitching, so even though it’s a big leap for him, he’s a solid option at this bargain salary, especially if he hits leadoff with good positional versatility.
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Pictured: Nolan McLean
Photo Credit: Imagn
