The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($9,500) Milwaukee Brewers (-166) vs. Athletics
There are a number of strong pitchers to consider at the top of the pricing spectrum, but Peralta stands out as the leader of the pack. He’s off to a phenomenal start this season, pitching to a 2.31 ERA and 2.47 xERA through his first four outings. He’s also piling up the strikeouts, with his 30.4% strikeout rate ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Peralta is unsurprisingly getting plenty of respect from Vegas for Friday’s matchup vs. the Athletics. He’s a -166 favorite – the third-largest of the day – while the A’s are implied for just 3.6 runs.
However, where Peralta really stands out is from a strikeout perspective. The A’s had the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handers last season, and while they haven’t been nearly as generous in that department to start 2025, Peralta still leads the slate with a 7.22 K Prediction. He’s racked up at least six strikeouts in every start this season, and he has eight strikeouts in two of them. When combined with his Vegas data, it gives him the best combination of floor and ceiling at the position.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bowden Francis ($7,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-118) vs. Seattle Mariners
Francis is one of the biggest enigmas at pitcher currently. On paper, he doesn’t look like a particularly strong option. He grades out as below average in virtually every Statcast and pitch modeling metric, and he doesn’t generate a ton of swings and misses.
And yet? He continues to produce pretty good results. Francis was phenomenal for the Blue Jays down the stretch last season. He pitched to a 1.80 ERA over the second half of the season, and he limited opposing batters to a paltry .212 wOBA.
Francis has carried that success into this season. He hasn’t been quite as good, but he’s pitched to a 3.71 ERA while surrendering three earned runs or fewer in each of his first three outings.
Maybe Francis will come crashing back to reality at some point – the data suggests he probably should – but certain guys are able to outpitch their peripherals. It’s possible Francis is just one of those guys.
He’s a viable value option on Friday in a solid matchup vs. the Mariners. Their projected lineup has posted a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. They’re also implied for just 4.0 runs, which is tied for the sixth-lowest mark. On a day without a slam-dunk value option, Francis looks more appealing than usual.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
MacKenzie Gore ($7,800) Washington Nationals (-135) at Colorado Rockies
Gore is pitching at Coors Field on Friday, which always carries a bit of risk. However, Gore still leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus against an anemic Rockies’ offense. They have the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season, and Gore can pile up strikeouts in bunches. He has a 33.7% strikeout rate for the year, which puts him in the 90th percentile. Even in Coors Field, the Rockies are implied for just 4.1 runs in this matchup.
The big red flag here is the weather. There is snow in the forecast for Colorado, and there is a roughly 90% chance of precipitation at game time. That gives this contest major PPD or delay concerns. If not for the weather, Gore would be the clear choice at SP2 for cash games. Instead, it makes him more of a GPP target.
Logan Webb ($9,000) San Francisco Giants (-155) at Los Angeles Angels
Webb is the biggest potential rival for Peralta at the top of the pricing spectrum. He doesn’t possess the same strikeout upside, and Webb has historically been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. Still, his matchup vs. the Angels is good enough to keep him in play. He’s a -155 favorite, while the Angels are implied for just 3.7 runs. Webb has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight starts, and he should be able to make it four in a row on Friday.
Drew Rasmussen ($8,300) Tampa Bay Rays (+100) vs. New York Yankees
Rasmussen is one of my favorite contrarian pitching options on Friday. He’s taking on the Yankees, who have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball this season. However, Rasmussen has been absolute nails on the bump. He’s pitched to a 0.60 ERA and a 1.85 xERA, and his underlying metrics are all strong. He’s already shut down two solid offenses in the Rangers and Braves, so there’s no reason he can’t do it again vs. the Yankees. Rasmussen is currently projected for roughly 7% ownership on DraftKings, making him an interesting pivot.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds are not typically a team that generates a ton of interest when they’re on the road. Their home ballpark is one of the best offensive environments in baseball, especially when it comes to homers. That can often result in inflated price tags when they’re outside of Cincinnati.
That said, that’s clearly not the case on Friday. Their top five hitters are very affordable, thanks to Austin Hays and Spencer Steer. Both players are priced at a discount, despite the fact that they’ll be on the positive side of their splits vs. left-hander Cade Povich.
Hays stands out as particularly appealing. He has long been known for his ability to crush southpaws, posting a 120 wRC+ in that split for his career. He’s also off to a phenomenal start through his first 13 at-bats this season, launching two homers with elite Statcast metrics.
The savings with Steer and Hays are more than enough to squeeze in Elly De La Cruz’s phenomenal ceiling. He leads the slate in ceiling projection by a comfortable margin, thanks to his ability to do damage with his bat and his legs. He’s a threat for multiple homers or steals every time he takes the field, and he’s racked up double-digit fantasy points in three of his past five games.
Finally, don’t sleep on Matt McLain, who has done significant damage against southpaws since the start of last season (per Plate IQ):
Add in the ability to pair this stack with whichever top pitcher you choose and modest ownership projections, and they’re a clear team to target.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gary Sanchez C ($2,100) Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
The Orioles also have some appeal in their matchup vs. the Reds. They’re taking on Andrew Abbott, who looked shaky in his first start of 2025. He allowed just one earned run across five innings, but his 4.50 xERA and underlying Statcast data are concerning. Abbott has also always been homer-prone, allowing an average of 1.50 homers per nine innings for his career.
Sanchez is currently expected to hit sixth in the Orioles’ lineup, and he’s priced at just $100 more than the minimum. Punting at catcher is almost always a viable strategy, and Sanchez has plenty of appeal at that figure. He leads all hitters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projections, and he has plenty of power upside as well.
Byron Buxton OF ($4,400) Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
The Twins are another squad that stands out as an appealing stack target. Elder is looking like a potential gas can to start the season. He’s pitched to a 7.20 ERA and 5.36 xERA, and he’s allowed a ridiculous 3.60 homers per nine innings. Elder also allowed plenty of homers last year, so he’s a prime pitcher to target on this slate.
Buxton stands out as one of the Twins’ most appealing targets. He’s not off to the best start at the dish, but he has big-time power and speed upside. He still ranks in the 100th percentile for sprint speed, and he ranks in the 90th percentile for bat speed. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points with his bat or his legs in this spot, giving him an elite ceiling for his price tag.
Jeremy Pena SS ($3,600) Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (Kyle Hart)
Pena’s traditional numbers don’t jump off the page this season – .215 batting average, .682 OPS – but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been extremely unlucky. His .320 xBA is more than 100 points higher than his actual mark, but he’s posted a well-below-average .216 BABIP. Pena should be above .300 with his wheels, so he’s a massive positive regression candidate moving forward.
Even with terrible batted-ball luck, Pena has still generated plenty of splash plays for fantasy. He has three homers and four stolen bases, giving him upside on a nightly basis.
Pena will also be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Hart. Hart has struggled to a 5.40 ERA so far this season, and he’s been dreadful from a strikeout and Statcast perspective. Ultimately, it’s an excellent opportunity to buy low on Pena, especially with the Astros implied for 5.0 runs.
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Pictured: Freddy Peralta
Photo Credit: Getty Images
