FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s main slate.
Batters
Tonight, we get a 15-game slate that features a contest at Coors Field. It might be the middle of July, but it feels like Christmas.
Park Factor: 2, Right-Handed Batters, PNC Park
You already know that batters at Coors Field benefit from a 100 Park Factor. If you read yesterday’s Data Dive, you might remember that left-handed batters at Oakland Coliseum are disadvantaged. It turns out that righties at PNC Park in Pittsburgh have it even worse. But here’s something that’s intriguing: Almost all of the right-handed Brewers and Pirates competing in this contest have high Bargain Ratings and low salaries on DraftKings, where righties at PNC have actually provided value during the summer months. The wind at the stadium is blowing out at nine miles per hour. You shouldn’t create tons of tournament lineups with these PNC righties, but you probably shouldn’t dismiss them out of hand either. They might offer a great opportunity for ownership arbitrage.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .472, David Ortiz
Here we go! Ortiz has the slate’s highest wOBA, is on the beneficial side of his splits, and sports a shipload of Pro Trends. The Red Sox have the slate’s second-highest implied Vegas total at 5.8 runs, and Ortiz is batting fourth and facing off against Jake Peavy, whose Pitch Velocity, Batted-Ball Distance, Hard-Hit Rate, and Exit Velocity Differentials are all trending in the wrong direction. Playing at Fenway, Ortiz and his fellow lefties have a subpar 39 Park Factor . . . but on DraftKings at least Papi just gets better the worse his park circumstances get and on FanDuel he has a 99 Bargain Rating. Some guys just get all the luck.
Isolated Power (ISO): .379, Ryan Schimpf
Ortiz also has the slate’s highest ISO. Did I forget to mention that? Second on the slate is San Diego infielder Ryan Schimpf, who offers positional dual eligibility on DraftKings, where he happens to have a 23 percent Bargain Rating. He’s also projected to bat seventh on a team with a slate-low implied total of 3.3 runs, and his 23 Park Rating doesn’t help matters. In other words, rostering Schimpf at second or third base in even just a few tournament lineups at DraftKings will go a long way toward improving the odds that some of your lineups will be unique — because who in his right mind would want to roster Schimpf?
Recent Batted-Ball Distance (Ft): 240, Yangervis Solarte
Of course, the Padres have another player who qualifies at second and third base, and that guy just happens to lead the slate in recent batted-ball distance . . . or at least all the players in the slate whom our Lineups page projects to start today. (This page updates throughout the day so that you always have the most up-to-date information available. Be sure to consult it as we get closer to lineup lock.) Solarte is projected to bat cleanup tonight and he has a 70 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. He and Schimpf can be rostered together because of their overlapping dual eligibility, and the odds of both being in tournaments is very low. Best of all, Solarte is still in an advantageous spot: Apparently if you hit the ball far enough, bat often enough, and are discounted enough, a low Vegas total isn’t a huge hindrance.
Moneyline (ML): +181, San Diego Padres
Why am I talking about the moneyline in the batters section? Because 1) I can, 2) it’s actionable, and 3) I want to drive the point home. I’ve written previously about the process of stacking on (not against) pitchers. National League hitters tend to be undervalued in general — and evidence suggests that the earlier in a game a pitcher is pulled and pinch hitters begin to appear then the better the batters on that team do, which makes sense, as the lineup is no longer dragged down by pitchers who need to bat. The Cardinals are implied to score 4.8 runs, and it’s very possible that Padres starting pitcher Colin Rea could be pulled early from the game. If that happens, then the Padres could have a number of hitters who are sparsely rostered and better than expected. Of course, there’s a 48 percent chance of precipitation in the game, but that’s not hugely worrisome because 1) the rain is expected to be light and 2) that could result in the Padres being rostered in even fewer tournament lineups.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), F*cking Everybody
DraftKings has one batter with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, Marcell Ozuna, who was discussed yesterday due to his massive Salary Change. FanDuel, though, is bloated with these batters. I’ve already mentioned Ortiz. There’s also Cincinnati outfielder Adam Duvall, who has 11 Pro Trends and is projected to hit fifth for a team implied currently to score 5.4 runs. And then there are maybe 20 other batters. If all you did when constructing a FanDuel lineup were use batters with 99 percent Bargain Ratings, you’d probably do pretty well in cash games.
Pitchers
Jake Arrieta vs. Noah Syndergaard: [Insert something clever here.]
K Prediction (SO): 9.1, Noah Syndergaard
In comparison to Jose Fernandez’s 10.8 K Prediction yesterday, Syndergaard’s 9.1 feels pedestrian, but it’s a good mark. The problem, though, is that Thor has almost nothing else going for him in this matchup. He has a 1.066 WHIP, benefits from a 93 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and is facing a Cubs team implied to score only 3.8 runs . . . yet he’s still a +131 moneyline underdog with one Pro Trend. For a guy who costs $10,100, Thor has remarkably little upside. If he doesn’t get the 12-point bonus victory on FanDuel, he almost certainly won’t live up to his salary — and it will be hard for him to limit runs against the Cubs and get the win against a pitcher like Arrieta.
Moneyline (ML): -210, Carlos Martinez
Remember all that talk about the Padres batters? Martinez is expected to mow them down using his slate-best -210 moneyline as a scythe. He doesn’t have great strikeout potential, as evidenced by his 6.5 K Prediction, but he has A) a great chance of locking in the 12-point victory bonus on FanDuel, B) an 80 Bargain Rating on FanDuel, C) an 81 Park Factor, and D) an opponent implied to score the second-fewest runs in the slate. For a guy who’s only the fourth-most expensive pitcher, that’s pretty good. He’s a strong starting option on FanDuel, and even on DraftKings, where strikeouts matter more and wins matter less, he’s still a viable option with only the sixth-highest pitching salary.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +1.3, Scott Kazmir
Kazmir has the best Pitch Velocity Differential in the slate, and it coincides with his other advanced differentials, which are all trending in the same direction. The problem with Kazmir — besides the potential for rain — is his matchup: He’s facing a Nationals team with an implied total of 4.5 runs. On top of that, the Dodgers are implied to score only 4.6 runs, so he by no means is a lock to win this game. Also, his 5.5 K Prediction is meager. So why am I talking about Kazmir? He is only $7,600 on DraftKings and has a 72 percent Bargain Rating. His average of 17.5 fantasy points over the last month is fifth-highest at the position. And he’s likely to be rostered in relatively few lineups. You could do a lot worse if you’re looking to go cheap at the position.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (DK), Reynaldo Lopez, Jake Peavy, and Kyle Lohse
Lopez is a rookie making his MLB debut. Peavy has an average Plus/Minus of -0.7 over the last year and is facing a Red Sox team that leads the league in runs per game. Lohse has made three starts in the last calendar year: In those games he averaged a -9.0 Plus/Minus, pitching Duds each outing. Lopez might have some Black Swan-esque potential as a relative unknown, but in general these three guys are a reminder that quite often the worst things in life are free.
Good luck!
