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Wednesday will feature a three-game early slate and 11-game main slate beginning at 12:35 p.m. ET and 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are six pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Justin Verlander (R), $12,200, HOU vs. DET
- Charlie Morton (R), $11,600, TB vs. SEA
- Walker Buehler (R), $11,100, LAD vs. TOR
- Lucas Giolito (R), $10,500, CWS @ MIN
- Patrick Corbin (L), $10,300, WSH @ PIT
- Luis Castillo (R), $10,200, CIN vs. SDP
Verlander checks in as the most expensive on the main slate by $1,200 over Buehler. It’s likely deserved in this spot against the Tigers. At the time of writing, the Tigers are implied for a slate-low 2.6 runs, and the Astros have an absurd moneyline of -500. That’s the largest favorite we have in our Trends tool.
Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds (-300 or better) against teams with similar implied run totals have been incredibly consistent, averaging a +6.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 74.6% Consistency Rating. Verlander is easily the best option on the night against a team that ranks 28th or worse in ISO, wOBA and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season.
Morton draws an excellent matchup against a projected Mariners lineup that owns a 27% strikeout rate and .280 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. He’s been a strikeout machine this season, boasting a 30.9% strikeout rate, so it’s no surprise that he possesses a 7.78 K Prediction against a strikeout-heavy team.
Overall, Morton and the Rays lead the early slate with moneyline odds (-264) and the Mariners 3.2 implied run total is the lowest mark among all other teams. Morton is a safe play considering his skillset and the Mariners’ high strikeout rate. He squared off against them two starts ago and rung up 10 of them in six innings.
Buehler has pitched to a 3.36 xFIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate this year, so he’s a fine alternative if you don’t want to pay up for Verlander on the main slate. The Blue Jays are another strike-out heavy team (28.9%), but they do have some power in this lineup as they rank ninth in ISO against righties this season, and their projected lineup boasts a .343 wOBA, so, the matchup isn’t quite as friendly as Verlander’s.
But, the overall spot is favorable for Buehler since the Dodgers are sitting with -297 moneyline odds and the Jays are implied for a paltry 3.1 runs. I’d still prefer to lock in Verlander, at least for cash games.
On the early slate, Giolito is probably an easy fade since he easily has one of the worst matchups on the board. The projected Twins lineup has a 23.8% strikeout rate and an elite .356 wOBA against righties over the last 12 months. They also rank second in ISO and fifth in wRC+.
Furthermore, the Twins’ 5.2 implied run total is the second-highest total on the early slate, and Giolito is one of the worst values on the board, sporting a -9.11 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Corbin has been reasonably consistent with a 70% Consistency Rating over the past month, but he hasn’t shown much upside since he’s averaged a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that same time frame. The matchup against the Pirates is solid since they rank dead last in wRC+ against lefties this year.
However, the upside likely isn’t there since their projected lineup possesses a strikeout rate of just 22% against left-handed pitchers over the last year. Corbin is more of a secondary option on Wednesday’s slate with the abundance of pitching options available.
On the early slate, Castillo is projected within one point of Morton, and since he’s $1,400 cheaper, he has a +5.52 projected Plus/Minus, making him a slightly better value than Morton on FanDuel. Castillo’s 7.78 K Prediction leads the early slate against a projected Padres lineup that has a slate-high 27.3% strikeout rate against righties over the last year.
Castillo is viable on FanDuel and is an excellent option on DraftKings where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and a slate-high +9.82 Projected Plus/Minus. His main concern would be his volatility he’s shown at times, but this is a favorable spot for him.
Values
If you don’t want to roll out a Morton/Castillo combination on DraftKings, Jake Odorizzi is a great value on DraftKings with his 96% Bargain Rating. He’s been shaky over the past month, owning a 40% Consistency Rating, but his salary has significantly decreased over the last month.
That said, going with a Morton/Castillo combination likely brings the most upside to your lineup, but Odorizzi is a decent option in tournaments against an unimposing White Sox team that ranks 28th or worse in ISO, wOBA and wRC+.
Julio Teheran carries a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and will take on a projected Marlins lineup with a 28.2% strikeout rate and .284 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. Teheran can get into trouble with his 11% walk-rate, but the Marlins could help mitigate that risk since their 6.6% walk-rate against right-handed pitchers is the second-lowest mark among teams.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: He’s pitched to a 3.79 xFIP with a 29% strikeout rate this year, and he’ll draw a matchup against an unimposing Giants lineup that ranks 24th or worse in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year. He’s probably my favorite option if you don’t lock in Verlander.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks for the early slate in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 4. Eddie Rosario(L)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
Total salary: $18,200
The early slate features a decent amount of strong pitchers on the mound, making the Twins one of two teams with an implied run total over 5.0 runs. Their 5.2 implied run total at the time of writing trails only the Rays, otherwise, everyone else is implied for 4.6 or fewer runs.
They’ll square off against Lucas Giolito, who has struck out 13 and eight hitters over his last two starts. However, he’s also allowed a fair amount of hard contact considering hitters have averaged a 246-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate over that time frame.
Giolito’s poor Statcast data could mesh well with Sano, whose metrics are off the charts. Over the last two weeks, Sano boasts a 262-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 59% hard-hit rate. And despite being on the negative side of his splits, he still owns a .344 wOBA and .275 ISO against them over the last year.
This stack could be troublesome for Giolito since three of the four hitters have strikeout rates below 18% against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Kansas City Royals.
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Jorge Soler (R)
- 4. Alex Gordon (L)
- 5. Ryan O’Hearn (L)
Total salary: $12,700
The Royals are in an exploitable spot against Aaron Brooks. He’s been abysmal this season, pitching to a 5.31 xFIP with an 11.3% K-BB%. Overall, he’s allowed five or more earned runs in four of his past five starts, and he has one of the highest HR/9 and lowest K/9 on the slate over the last 12 months. Brooks possesses some of the worst recent Statcast data on the slate, allowing hitters to average a 235-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.
Soler stands out the most in this stack since he’s throttled right-handed pitchers, owning a .389 wOBA and .318 ISO against them. Not mention his rediculous 258-foot average distance, 99-mph exit velocity and 68% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.
The benefit of targeting this Royals stack is you get access to the fourth-highest implied run total on the slate, while not paying a hefty price tag for it. It could allow you to get all the way up to Verlander’s elite spot against the Tigers, or mix in some of the more expensive bats on the slate.
Other Batters
If you have the salary, it’d be hard not to get some exposure to J.D. Martinez considering the Red Sox own a 6.8 implied run total. And the matchup against Drew Smyly will put him on the positive side of his splits, sporting an elite .526 wOBA and .424 wOBA against them over the last year. Smyly has got knocked around his last two starts, allowing nine earned runs while allowing opposing hitters to average a 262-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate.
Despite being on the negative side of his splits, Amed Rosario is intriguing on a Mets team that is implied for 5.1 runs, if you’re not wanting to pay up at shortstop. Rosario possesses the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel among shortstops.
Danny Santana carries a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is projected to hit from the No. 2 spot for the Rangers. He could be a good way to get exposure to the Rangers’ 5.9 implied run total. The main drawback of Santana is his 34.6% strikeout rate against lefties, but he does have a .363 wOBA and .260 ISO against them. He’s a better value on FanDuel since he has a Bargain Rating of just 5% on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Verlander and Yuli Gurriel
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
