The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate. There’s a four-game early slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET and a six-game main slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers stand out above the rest today on FanDuel:
- Mike Clevinger (R) $11,900, CLE @ DET
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,500, NYM vs. CHC
- Zach Greinke (R) $10,600, HOU vs. TB
Clevinger has quietly blossomed into one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His 3.00 ERA is nothing to write home about, but his 2.39 FIP would rank second in the league among qualified starters. He’s also increased his K/9 to 13.03 this season, making him one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. He’s been dominant from a fantasy perspective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.63 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel.
Clevinger is in one of the best possible spots today vs. the Detroit Tigers. Their projected lineup has struggled against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .294 wOBA and 26.6% strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and they rank dead last in wRC+ against right-handers this season. Right-handed pitchers have absolutely dominated from a fantasy perspective when facing the Tigers in 2019, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.53 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Unsurprisingly, Clevinger leads the early slate in opponent implied team total (3.3 runs), moneyline odds (-238), and K Prediction (7.7). He’s an elite option.
deGrom headlines the main slate, and he continues to make a case for the title of best pitcher in baseball. He’s dropped his ERA to 2.56 after a rough start to the season, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of his past 17 outings. He was dominant in his last start, recording 13 strikeouts while allowing just one earned run over seven innings.
deGrom is in a tricky spot today vs. the Chicago Cubs, but he’s essentially matchup proof at this point. He leads the main slate with a 3.1 opponent implied team total and -195 moneyline odds. He also possesses immense strikeout upside. The Cubs projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.6% against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving deGrom a K Prediction of 8.5.
Finally, deGrom’s Statcast data from his past two starts is elite. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 178 feet and a hard hit rate of just 16%, both of which represent massive decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. There’s nothing not to like about him on today’s slate.
Greinke is in an interesting spot today. He has a tough matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, whose projected lineup has posted a .331 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. That said, he’s still getting a lot of respect from Vegas given his opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs, and he’s a significant -229 favorite.
He also represents on of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Values
Chris Paddack has struggled recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.68 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel. The Red Sox roughed him up in his last outing, tallying seven hits and six earned runs over just 2.1 innings.
That said, his salary has decreased to $7,000 on FanDuel, which makes him a strong buy low option vs. the San Francisco Giants. They’ve struggled offensively this season, ranking just 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and their projected lineup has also posted a strikeout rate of 26.1% against right-handers over the past 12 months. Paddack’s opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs and K Prediction of 7.3 both rank second on the main slate.
His recent Statcast data also suggests he’s been a bit unlucky recently. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 206 feet, which represents a decrease of -8 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He seems due for some positive regression.
Jon Lester is another excellent value on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s an underdog against deGrom and the Mets, but he’s been excellent recently from a Statcast perspective. He’s posted an average distance of 192 feet and hard hit rate of 26% over his past two starts, both of which represent solid decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Lester doesn’t provide a ton of strikeout upside, but he should be fantasy viable if he continues to limit the damage on balls in play.
Fastballs
Jose Berrios: He’s a potential pivot off Clevinger and Greinke on the early slate given his elite matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox. They’ve been dreadful against right-handers since the All-Star break, ranking 29th in wRC+.
Alex Wood: He’s pitched to a 6.07 ERA in his first year with the Cincinnati Reds, but he owns a 3.7 opponent implied team total and -175 moneyline odds today vs. the Miami Marlins. He’s also been considerably better when pitching on the road this season, and Marlins Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly venue.
Dereck Rodriguez: He could be your guy if you’re looking to stack Coors Field today. He’s priced at just $4,600 on DraftKings and owns an opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs vs. the Padres. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.04 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Oakland A’s:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 3. Matt Chapman (R)
- 4. Matt Olson (L)
- 5. Mark Canha (R)
Total Salary: $23,700
The A’s stand out as the clear top target on the early slate. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 6.0 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 82 also ranks first on DraftKings.
They have an appealing matchup today vs. Royals right-hander Glenn Sparkman, who has struggled this season. He’s pitched to a 5.52 ERA and 5.77 FIP, and he’s averaged just 5.35 strikeouts per nine innings.
His low strikeout rate could spell trouble against the A’s, who have collectively been crushing the baseball recently. Semien, Grossman, and Canha in particular have vastly outperformed their 12-month average distances over the past 15 days, with each owning posting a distance differential of at least +23 feet. Each of the stacked batters has also posted a 15-day/12-month hard hit differential of at least eight percentage points.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Danny Santana (S)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Willie Calhoun (L)
Total Salary: $13,800
Coors Field should garner the majority of the hitting attention on the main slate – both the Pirates and Rockies own an implied team total of at least 7.2 runs – but don’t sleep on the Rangers. They’re currently implied for 6.0 runs, and the weather conditions in Arlington are nearly as favorable as they are in Coors.
The Rangers also have an excellent matchup vs. Felix Hernandez, who is a shell of the pitcher that he was during his prime. He’s pitched to a 6.09 ERA and 5.80 FIP over 44.1 innings this season, and opposing batters have averaged 2.23 HRs per nine innings. Left-handed batters in particular have teed off on Hernandez, posting a .405 wOBA, and Hernandez has struggled to an 8.44 ERA when pitching on the road. This looks like a disastrous spot for him.
Choo stands out as one of the best overall plays on the slate. He’s expected to bat leadoff at $3,500, and Choo has historically thrived in that role when facing a right-handed pitcher. He’s also posted an average distance of 241 feet over his past 13 games, which represents an increase of +28 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Other Batters
Targeting Charlie Blackmon at Coors Field is almost never a bad idea. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits today vs. Pirates right-hander Trevor Williams, and Blackmon has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.53 on FanDuel when batting leadoff against a right-hander at Coors. That number jumps to +4.13 when factoring in an implied team total of at least 6.0, and the Rockies lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 7.4.
Max Muncy is questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Diamondbacks, but he’s an elite option if he’s able to suit up. He leads all batters with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and no other batter on the main slate owns more than eight. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has pitched to a 6.00 ERA on the road this season.
The A’s and Twins figure to garner the majority of attention on the early slate, which could make Yordan Alvarez a bit of a forgotten man. That said, he’s absolutely destroyed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .478 wOBA and .377 ISO, and his $3,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. That’s the top mark on the early slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mets SP Jacob deGrom (48)
Photo credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
