Tuesday features a 10-game slate on DraftKings starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. and a 12-game slate on FanDuel, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Note: The New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies game tonight has been postponed due to Covid-19 restrictions along with the Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins game.
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,500, LAD @ HOU
Walker Buehler excelled in his second season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, compiling a 14-4 record with a 3.01 FIP and 215 strikeouts. His 10.61 K/9 was seventh-best in the National League amongst starters and he was successful keeping the long ball in check, allowing just .99 HR/9. His first start of 2020 will come against a Houston Astros team that has started the season at a scorching pace, averaging 7.25 runs/game thus far.
They bring a strong .383 wOBA and low 19.9% strikeout rate into Tuesday’s game and will pose a stiff challenge to Buehler in his debut. He has the stuff to be successful here, but given the matchup and elevated price tag, should be avoided in cash games. He makes an intriguing guaranteed prize pool (GPP) play at what will likely be low ownership.
- Yonny Chirinos (R) $7,400, TB vs. ATL
While the final 2019 numbers for Yonny Chirinos weren’t great (4.44 FIP, 7.7 /9), he showed flashes throughout the season that indicated he had all the tools to be an above average starting pitcher in this league. In 10 of his 18 of his starts, he pitched six-plus innings and recorded wins in five of them. He also took advantage of strikeout prone teams, recording a 9+K/9 in six of those 10 starts.
On Tuesday, he takes on an Atlanta Braves team that has struck out 35.5% of the time thus far and has struggled to the tune of a .299 wOBA. This potent Braves team can break out at any moment, but at only $7,400, he doesn’t need much to pay off his reasonable price tag.
- Patrick Sandoval (L) $5,600, LAA vs. SEA
While last season didn’t go exactly as planned, Patrick Sandoval impressed enough to earn the designation of sixth starter for the LA Angels this season. Still only 23, his 4.59 FIP (versus his 5.03 ERA) suggest that he was a bit unlucky in his 2019 campaign.
His 9.6 K/9 from last season was strong, but his numbers from previous seasons suggest he also has room to improve on that; in stints with the Angels A+ through AAA affiliates in 2018 and 2019, his strikeout rate ranged anywhere from 10.2 K/9 to 14.4 K/9. His fastball sits at just around 93 mph, but has one of the best changeups in the Angels system to keep hitters off balance.
On Tuesday, he faces a projected Seattle Mariners lineup with 29.9% strikeout rate and .226 wOBA, which should help Sandoval as he tries to establish himself as a key cog in this rotation. He will likely be limited to 75 pitches in his season debut, but shouldn’t need more than that to pay of his modest $5,600 salary.
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
• 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
• 2. JD Martinez (R)
• 3. Rafael Devers (L)
• 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
• 5. Kevin Pillar (R)
Total Salary: $21,500
The Chicago Cubs also rank highly as a four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
• 1. Kris Bryant (R)
• 2. Anthony Rizzo (L)
• 3 Javier Baez (R)
• 4. Kyle Schwarber (L)
Total Salary: $13,900
The Red Sox are expected to take on David Peterson, a lefty slated to make his major league debut on Tuesday. Last season at AA Binghamton, Peterson pitched to a 4.19 ERA over 24 starts and allowed just nine home runs in 116 innings. He also recorded a solid 9.0 K/9. The Red Sox, however, are a substantial step-up in competition and hit left-handed pitching particularly well.
JD Martinez recorded a superb .539 wOBA and .482 ISO versus southpaws last season. Andrew Benintendi was also successful against lefties, recording a .340 wOBA and .438 slugging percentage himself. To make matters worse for Peterson, Xander Bogaerts also dominated left-handers, posting a .374 wOBA and .261 ISO himself last season. The New York Mets bullpen also comes into this one with a 99 “overworked” rating in the model, indicating that Boston will be taking on a relatively tired bullpen. Fire up the Red Sox with confidence tonight.
The Chicago Cubs also find themselves in a favorable spot on Tuesday against righty Tyler Mahle and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mahle recorded a 4.45 FIP and allowed 36.2% hard hit rate last season, but it was the long ball that really hurt him; in 130 innings pitched, he allowed 1.74 HR/9 a 20.8% HR/FB.
The Cubs are a powerful group, with each of Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber and Bryant hitting at least 27 home runs last season. Kris Bryant has the highest rating of the bunch in the Bales Model; he’s projected to lead off and was strong against righties in 2019, recording a .366 wOBA and .217 ISO against them last year.
Lorenzo Cain ranks highly in Bales Model on Tuesday night and for good reason. He has multi-hit outings in two of his first four games and is projected to lead off again against lefty Derek Holland in a game where the Brewers have the highest implied run total (5.7) on the slate. He is also better against righties, hitting to a .317 wOBA against them last season.
Ryan Braun also projects to have a strong night against Holland. In 2019, Braun recorded a .384 wOBA and .287 ISO in 332 plate appearances against righties. As the likely cleanup hitter, he should be right in the middle of what is expected to be a high-scoring affair for Milwaukee.
Once again, Jesse Winkler stands out as an elite value on FanDuel at just $2,300. He projects to lead off against rookie Alec Mills and had a strong .373 wOBA and .235 ISO versus right-handers in 2019. Mills gave up a 43.5% hard hit rate during his short 2019 major league stint and particularly struggled against lefties, allowing a .412 wOBA to them during that time.
Pictured above: LA Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler
Photo credit: Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images