The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features two games starting at 4:07 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in order are:
Dylan Cease (R)
L. H. Garcia (R)
Nathan Eovaldi (R)
Drew Rasmussen (R)
The highest-priced pitcher on the slate at DraftKings and FanDuel is Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox. Cease is looking to get his team back on track as they’ve lost the first two games of the series and hope to avoid being swept. During the regular season, Cease was very effective with 226 strikeouts, 13-7 record and 3.91 ERA in only 165.2 innings. A minor concern for Cease is he struggled against the Astros. In nine innings, he allowed 10 runs on 10 hits, while striking out 14. Cease and the White Sox are in a must-win game as the series shifts to Chicago. The Astros are projected for the lowest implied-runs total on the slate (4.1 runs), which bodes well for the White Sox starter.
On the opposite side of the diamond, L. H. Garcia will be pitching for visiting Houston. Unlike Cease, Garcia pitched well against the White Sox. In seven innings, Garcia allowed seven hits, one earned run and struck out eight batters. If past numbers come back to life, the Astros should be able to complete the sweep. Garcia is the highest-rated pitcher on Bales Model for DraftKings, as he will be on the mound against the team projected for the highest implied-runs total on the slate (4.5 runs). Garcia’s past success presents great value at a discounted price. However, he did have a 4.24 ERA in 15 road starts.
Nathan Eovaldi has been elite in his last two starts for the Boston Red Sox. Over 11.1 innings, Eovaldi has allowed eight hits, one earned run (off a home run), and struck out 15. Eovaldi was credited as the winning pitcher in the American League wild-card game against the New York Yankees and looks to continue his recent dominance against the Tampa Bay Rays. During the regular season, Eovaldi allowed seven earned runs in 26.1 innings against the Rays which does show there is room for improvement. With the series currently tied at a game apiece, the Red Sox will turn the ball over to their most reliable option in the rotation.
Another pitcher who is very reliable and has a decent amount of experience is Drew Rasmussen from the Tampa Bay Rays. For only being 26 years old, it is impressive that Rasmussen has earned the trust of his manager enough to receive a postseason start. It is even more impressive that he has only being with the team for half of the season. In 76 innings this year, Rasmussen had a 2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4-1 record and 73 strikeouts. There is potential for rain, so please be aware of possible delays which sometimes throws off pitchers and their rhythm.
The top projected points stack comes to you from the Houston Astros (+109):
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Yordan Alverez (L)
- Yulieski Gurriel (R)
The Astros are projected for the fourth-highest implied runs total on the slate today (4.1 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $11.8k in salary and is projected for a combined 43.4 fantasy points. In the first two games of the series, the Astros scored 15 runs. Not too bad for going up to bat against the White Sox two best pitchers. The Astros have been on fire recently and it seems as though they won’t be slowing down anytime soon.
It’s worth noting the team with the highest value rating is the Tampa Bay Rays. While viewing Bales Model, there are quite a few Rays batters that are highly rated. It is recommended to look at the middle of their batting order as that is where the most value lies.
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Ji-Man Choi
- Nelson Cruz
- Alex Verdugo
- Jake Meyers
- Leury Garcia