Friday’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features 13 games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We’ll be using the FantasyLabs MLB Player Models to break down each of the slate’s top pitching and hitting options, plus stack considerations and alternatives for the sake of lineup exposures.
Jacob deGrom (RHP), New York Mets ($11,300 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel)
The favorite of the night is Jacob deGrom, which comes as no surprise. The Mets’ ace has somehow allowed only four earned runs for the entire season.
Moreover, deGrom nearly reports the exceedingly rare “ERA lower than WHIP” statistical achievement, and his WHIP is the best in the MLB.
On Friday, deGrom faces the San Diego Padres, against whom he pitched during his most recent appearance. In that start, he pitched seven innings, allowed zero runs and struck out 11 batters. The Padres are the second-best team at avoiding strikeouts this season, but that goes out the window when facing deGrom.
There are some seriously low implied totals tonight, but the Padres have the lowest at 2.5 runs. I would be very comfortable rostering deGrom in DFS, and his cash-game ownership will be extremely high.
Clayton Kershaw (LHP), Los Angeles Dodgers ($9,800 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel)
The second favorite on the Bales Model tonight is a little surprising with some of the other names on the slate, but Clayton Kershaw is not a bad option by any means.
The reason for this is that the Los Angeles Dodgers are very significant favorites tonight at -312 over the Texas Rangers. This means there’s a good chance Kershaw secures a win.
Kershaw has really been rather pedestrian this season. He has given up five earned runs four times and four earned runs in another start. He still has the capability to completely shut down even higher-end lineups, though.
The Rangers would certainly not fall into that category. They are the eight-worst team in K% and 25th in average runs per game.
Tonight feels like a good bounce-back opportunity for Kershaw, and he allows a little more salary for your hitters.
Max Scherzer (RHP), Washington Nationals ($11,500 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel)
Max Scherzer falls onto this slate after having his start postponed yesterday.
Scherzer is not getting the hype he did in previous seasons, but he is remarkably consistent. The last time he allowed more than two earned runs was April 27. He also posted a 1.83 ERA in the month of May.
My only problem with Scherzer tonight is he does not offer a ton of savings off of deGrom (he is somehow actually more expensive than deGrom on DraftKings), and the San Francisco Giants are not total pushovers.
Even without the likes of MikeYastrzemski and Evan Longoria, the Giants offense can still score. Mix in a high threat of rain for this game, and I would look elsewhere.
Brandon Woodruff (RHP), Milwaukee Brewers ($10,400 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel)
Another big name on this slate would be Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff ranks out a little bit lower on the Bales Model than I would expect with a grade-A matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Woodruff’s biggest problem might be his own team’s offense. With an ERA of 1.55 in April and 1.07 in May, he has accumulated only four wins. Speaking of consistency, he has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season — on Opening Day, and it was three earned runs.
The Pirates are objectively a poor hitting team. They average nearly a half-run less than the second-lowest team in MLB. They have an implied run total of 2.8 tonight.
The reason the Bales Model is not all over Woodruff is his price. He is only $200 cheaper than deGrom on FanDuel and $900 cheaper than him on DraftKings. If you are going to pay up to that level, why not go for the surest thing?
Lucas Giolito (RHP), Chicago White Sox ($ DK; $10,700 FD)
Another hurler I would avoid tonight is Lucas Giolito. He very clearly is not the same pitcher he was in 2020.
On top of that, the Detroit Tigers offense has seemed to find some life as of late. With a bunch of no-namers and veteran afterthoughts, they are starting to hit the ball well.
Just last time out against these Tigers, Giolito gave up three home runs to take the loss. In 13 2/3 innings against the Tigers this year, Giolito has given up five home runs. He has allowed 13 home runs this season, which is tied for third-worst in the MLB.
If you are going to pay up, I would take a surer thing once again.
The best stack of the night belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 2. Max Muncy (L – 41+%)
- 3. Justin Turner (R – 5-8%)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R – 9-12%)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L – 26-30%)
This group is projected for 50.7 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,300. They face right-hander Mike Foltynewicz of the Rangers tonight. Folty is a pitch-to-contact guy, and the issue with those guys in 2021 is they give up home runs.
He’s also tied with Giolito at 13 home runs given up this season. This Dodgers lineup will most likely frustrate and get to him tonight.
The No. 1 hitter on the Bales Model is Jonathan India (26-30%). Hitting lead-off for a potent offense like the Cincinnati Reds will certainly have its perks. So will facing Kyle Freeland, whether you are in Coors Field or not. India is off to a great start in June, going 9-for-26 with two doubles and two home runs. His price has remained cheap for now.
A lot of the White Sox rate out at bargains, including Jose Abreu (5-8%). Abreu has gotten off to a slow start in June but ripped two doubles yesterday. Yoan Moncada (9-12%) and Yermin Mercedes (9-12%) are also rated as bargains. They will be facing Tarik Skubal, who has really improved in recent weeks — so maybe that is the cause for some of their lower salary prices.
Dan Vogelbach (5-8%) is priced rather cheaply and gets to face the Pirates. He comes into this matchup on a seven-game hitting streak with three home runs in that stretch. Keep in mind, he only has six home runs on the season, but we know that he has the power supply in his swing. He is an attractive option hitting in the 2-hole of the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup.