If you played Spencer Turnbull last night in DFS, you are a better person than me. Five no-hitters in under two months of baseball is tough to process. Also, pour one out for Mariners fans as they have now seen their time no-hit twice in 2021.
Wednesday’s big-boy main slate features 12 games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
One-third of the projected pitchers tonight are priced over $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,700, WSH @ CHC
- Jack Flaherty (R) $10,800, STL vs PIT
- Corbin Burnes (R) $10,500, MIL @ KC
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,200, LAD vs ARI
- John Means (L) $10,000, BAL vs TB
- Trevor Rogers (L) $9,700, MIA @ PHI
- Shohei Ohtani (R) $9,500, LAA vs CLE
- Zach Eflin (R) $9,300, PHI vs MIA
Jack Flaherty is the top-rated high-priced pitcher on FanDuel and overall on DraftKings, according to the Bales Model. The Pirates are one of the four worst offenses in baseball using Offensive WAR and possess the lowest Hard Hit percentage (Hard %) and highest Soft Hit percentage (Soft %) on the road against right-handed pitching. St. Louis is also the biggest favorite as of Wednesday morning and is projected to win by 1.4 runs and allow a slate-low 3.1 runs.
Max Scherzer is $1,700 cheaper on DraftKings and is the No. 2-rated pitcher behind Flaherty. The Cubs own a pedestrian 105 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at home against righties but are top-five in Home Run-to-Flyball (HR/FB) percentage. Scherzer’s Home Runs Per 9 has climbed each of the past three seasons as the 36-year old ages.
The wind is also expected to be blowing out toward left field, a red flag for flyball pitchers such as Scherzer. The Cubs have outscored the Nationals 13-6 in the first two games of the series, and Scherzer is Washington’s best hope to prevent a series loss.
Corbin Burnes walks one batter, and his price drops. I only partially kid because Burnes has gone two starts without a win or quality start and has not reached 40 FanDuel points over that time. Burnes will try to solve the contact-heavy Royals in Kansas City. Despite the lack of power, the Royals are top-five in flyball rate at home and have the sixth-lowest Soft % against righties at home. Brewers-Royals is the matchup most likely to have weather play a factor with a 63% chance of rain.
We are witnessing history every time Shohei Ohtani picks up a bat or stands on the pitcher’s mound. We get both tonight when he pitches against Cleveland. Its offense is due for positive regression as it enters Wednesday with a .238 BABIP despite having a top-10 Hard % and HR/FB rate. Ohtani has cruised as a starter but is also propped up by a .196 BABIP. I am not saying tonight is when the regression storm hits, but it is in play. Ohtani has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is a top-10 option on both platforms.
Zach Eflin gives up too many hits considering his price tag on FanDuel. If not for his opponent being the Marlins, he would not be in consideration. Miami strikes out the fifth-most and owns a bottom-five wRC+ on the road against righties. Trevor Rogers opposes Eflin in one of the closest projected games (0.4 run differential).
Clayton Kershaw has a more difficult test than the majority of the upper-tier pitchers. The Diamondbacks hit lefties well and do so away from the desert. Despite allowing five earned runs to the Marlins in his last outing, Kershaw logged a win and collected 11 strikeouts. Arizona is middle-of-the-pack in strikeout rate, but if Kershaw is just OK, he can still get counting stats to boost his fantasy point output.
Tampa Bay loves striking out against lefties, especially on the road (31.9%). The Rays are another team that is poor at generating power and excels at soft contact. Not ideal for an offense. John Means is one of two higher-priced pitchers who is an underdog.
Value
Corey Kluber is the top value to target against Texas. The Yankees have had their issues with the Rangers this week, but for some reason, the Yankees perform when Kluber pitches. The former Cy Young winner has wins in three of his last four with two quality starts, 27 strikeouts, and seven earned runs allowed over 26 1/3 innings pitched in that span.
Logan Gilbert is looking to rebound after a rough first career start. I love targeting teams the day after they get no-hit, and the Mariners get another chance to shine after being kept off the bases. After being no-hit by Means May 5, the Mariners went to Texas and put up five runs on 10 hits and collected a win.
Despite putting up five runs last night, the Tigers are a wreck offensively. They have the second-highest Soft % and strikeout rate on the road against righties and are bottom-10 in OPS, wRC+. Gilbert has an 80% Bargain rating on DraftKings ($4,700) and leads the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton has been pretty bad for Atlanta but faces a Mets offense with only two players sporting an OPS+ over 100 (min. eight at-bats). The Mets just lost Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil to injury as well. This has the makings of a get-right game for Morton, the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel.
Aaron Civale is looking to bounce back after another bad start, but with Mike Trout out for the foreseeable future, the Angels are vulnerable. The Ohtani hype is justified, which means DFS players will ignore Civale. Civale is my favorite pivot and is a value under $8,000 on both platforms.
Notable Stack
A good pitching matchup paired with a good offense never hurts:
- Luke Voit (R)
- D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- Aaron Judge (R)
- Gleyber Torres (R)
Total Salary: $13,400
The Yankees lineup has an 88 Value Rating on FanDuel and is $1,500 cheaper than the second-best projected stack. LeMahieu and Voit are top-10 batters on both platforms, while Torres is 11th. Judge’s price tag is the only deterrent attached to him, but he still rates as a top-10 hitter on DraftKings.
Other Hitters
Bales Model darling Enrique Hernandez returned to the Red Sox lineup and the top of the model. He also did what he does best — next to nothing. I will continue to fade Hernandez.
Zack Greinke has not had a good start to 2021, and the Athletics have a few hitters who find success against him — Elvis Andrus, Matt Chapman, and Ramon Laureano.
If you are interested in targeting Mariners in a bounce-back, rookie Jarred Kelenic is a top-10 hitter on both platforms. Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger also rate well.
Randy Arozarena has the lowest salary on FanDuel and DraftKings among the players with the highest projections.
Photo Credit: Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
Pictured: DJ LeMahieu.
