The second-to-last Sunday of the season offers up a nine-game main slate on FanDuel starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
There are very few elite options on this slate, as only two pitchers are priced above $8,500:
- Carlos Carrasco (R), $9,900, CLE @ DET
- Deivi Garcia (R), $8,900, NYY @ BOS
The highest-rated pitcher on the Bales Model, is the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I think it’s pretty warranted.
Carrasco only has two wins on the season, but that has more to do with the Cleveland Indians struggling to score runs more than anything. He is 7-of-10 in reaching quality starts.
The Indians are solidifying their spot as one of the two wild card teams in the American League, while the Detroit Tigers are ready for the season to end. Vegas sees the Indians as -194 favorites in this one, with the Tigers having an implied run total of 3.4.
Carrasco is third on this slate at 10.1 K/9, and the Tigers having the second-most strikeouts per game in the MLB.
The only blip is that Carrasco left his last start with calf tightness, but the injury was downplayed by the Indians’ pitching coach. With him making his next start on time, I don’t think it’s much cause for concern.
In cash games, I think it is easy to lock in Carrasco this afternoon.
It is awfully impressive to see a guy making his fifth big league start as the second-most expensive pitcher on a slate. Garcia is averaging the most FanDuel points per game on this slate. He has managed a quality start in three of his four outings.
Garcia is more likely than not going to have a fine outing today. The Boston Red Sox are really entering “Let’s get this over with” territory on their season, especially after blowing a lead Friday night.
I just don’t think there is safety at this price for Garcia. His K/9 is 8.8 — he has exactly six strikeouts in every start so far.
The Yankees are -177 favorites, with the Red Sox’s team total at 4.1 runs. I would rather pay up for Carrasco than back Garcia.
The model really likes Josh Lindblom this afternoon, too, as he is the second-highest rated pitcher.
This is a pure strikeout play at a punt price of $6,700. Lindblom’s K/9 is 11.5, which is very strong. This leads into why Lindblom has such a better FIP (4.15) than ERA (5.26).
The issue is that Lindblom does not have a quality start and only has one win, so neither can really be expected today.
The Kansas City Royals have the 10th-most strikeouts per game in the MLB and have been averaging 12 strikeouts per game over their last three. They also have the fifth-fewest runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers are decent favorites at -150, and the Royals have an implied run total of 3.9. I also like the fact the Brewers are playing for their lives, and the Royals are not playing for anything.
Lindblom is probably more of a GPP arm, but I do like him.
Another guy that could bring down a GPP is Jose Urquidy at $6,500. He made his third start of the season last time out and struck out seven batters. In his two previous starts, he only had three combined.
Urquidy gets to face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who I think quit on the season in mid-August. As an added benefit, the Houston Astros’ lineup gets to see Madison Bumgarner, who is a shell of his former self.
The Diamondbacks have scored the 25th-most runs per game at 4.23 and have an implied run total of 4.0.
Urquidy has done an excellent job this season at keeping the ball in the yard, having allowed only one home run in 16 2/3 innings. He has a 2.70 ERA with a 3.85 FIP.
Urquidy hits for seven ProTrends against the Brewers.
That price really is too low for Urquidy, as it has only moved up $100 since the beginning of the season. Last season, he was a strikeout an inning guy (40 strikeouts in 41 innings), so that leads me to believe that the seen strikeout performance was no fluke. Urquidy does not even need to keep up the strikeouts that he had last time out to hit for value.
Sure, this is a bottom of the rotation guy for Houston, but he isn’t pitching like it. If you want to get crazy, you could try him in cash with all elite bats, but he makes a lot of sense for GPPs.
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There is another game in Coors Field today, so the Los Angeles Dodgers are the top Bales Model stack:
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 6. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 4. Max Muncy (L)
This group of four is projected for 60.4 FanDuel points on $16,500. The Dodgers have an implied run total of an absurd 7.5 runs. Antonio Senzatela has been the ace of the Colorado Rockies this year but has given up eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have 30 runs in the first three games of this series, and I am not sure anyone is stopping them in Coors.
The second-best stack would belong to the other Coors team, the Colorado Rockies:
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 1. Raimel Tapia (L)
They are projected for 53.2 FanDuel points on $15,300. I would much rather have the Dodgers over these Rockies. Utilizing FantasyLabs’ lineup optimizer, it should be pretty easy to squeeze in four Dodger hitters with Carrasco, so there is no need to save here. Tony Gonsolin has been a strong pitcher this year — he has a BB/9 of 1.5 and HR/9 of 0.5. He’s given up 22 hits in 35 2/3 innings. The Rockies have only scored 10 runs in the first three games of this series.
The third-best stack belonged to the Houston Astros against the Diamondbacks and Bumgarner. Both George Springer and Jose Altuve rate well on the Bales Model. Springer is on a seven-game hitting streak with three home runs in that stretch. Altuve is 8-for-17 lifetime off of Bumgarner, with one home run. The Astros offense as a whole has an implied run total of 5.7 runs.
Brandon Lowe is a 98% Bargain on the Bales Model and hits LHP better than RHP. Lowe owns a 1.011 OPS against LHP this year and gets to play in Camden Yards against John Means today. He has reached base safely in his last 12 starts and had two hits each of the last two nights. Lowe hits for six ProTrends this afternoon.