The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a two-game early slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers stand out above the rest on today’s slates:
- Luis Severino (R) $11,900, NYY @ OAK
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,400, NYM @ LAD
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,300, CLE vs. KC
Severino has not looked like himself recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.72 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings. He has rebounded a bit over his past two, striking out 18 batters over 11.2 innings pitched, but his Statcast data suggests that batters have been hitting him hard when they have been able to make contact. He’s allowed an average distance of 226 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 39%; all three marks represent sizable increases compared to his 12-month averages.
He’s in a tough spot today vs. the Oakland Athletics. Their projected lineup owns a .335 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months and has an implied team total of 3.7 runs. That’s the fourth-highest implied team total against Severino this season, and his $11,900 salary makes him at least $1,000 more expensive than he’s been in any of the previous occasions. It’s hard to get behind him at that price tag.
Unlike Severino, Wheeler has been lights out over his past 10 contests, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.13 on DraftKings. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 172 feet, which represents a differential of -24 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, comparably-priced pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.23 with comparable recent Statcast marks (per the Trends tool).
Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t have much faith in his ability to shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their projected lineup has owned righties to the tune of a .339 wOBA over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 4.4 runs is extremely high given Wheeler’s ERA of 1.19 since the All-Star break. That said, the Dodgers have a subpar strikeout rate of 25.0% against right-handed pitchers, and no pitcher on today’s slate has a better Consistency Rating over the past year than Wheeler. This may be a rare opportunity to buy low on an up-and-coming player.
Kluber is toeing the rubber on the early slate and is in an elite spot vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’ve averaged the third-fewest runs per game this season, and Kluber unsurprisingly has excellent Vegas data: 2.7 opponent implied team total and -350 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.41 and a Consistency Rating of 78.8% on FanDuel. He should be massive chalk on the early slate with just two games available.
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Values
Hyun-Jin Ryu is opposing Wheeler in Los Angeles and has the lowest implied team total on the main slate (3.2 runs). He’s also a significant -183 moneyline favorite, and his K Prediction of 7.9 is tops among all of today’s pitchers. The only knock on Ryu is his recent Statcast data: He’s underperformed his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past three starts. That said, that may not matter against the Mets, who have been dismal against left-handed pitchers all season: They own the lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate against southpaws in 2018.
Framber Valdez has made only two starts at the MLB level, but he’s allowed just two earned runs over 10 innings pitched. He has a pretty nice matchup vs. the Minnesota Twins, whose projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .306 and a strikeout rate of 25.5% over the past 12 months. Valdez also benefits by pitching for the Astros, who routinely have one of the higher implied team totals of the day. Today is no exception: Houston has strong -215 moneyline odds. The one knock on Valdez has been his lack of strikeout upside, which likely makes him better suited for cash games than GPPs.
Nick Pivetta is always a tantalizing option for daily fantasy baseball, largely due to his elite K/9 of 10.72 in 2018. That hasn’t always translated to good results – he has an ERA of 4.66 and has averaged a Plus/Minus of just +1.25 on DraftKings this season – but his current matchup vs. the Miami Marlins could make him worth the risk. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .248 over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.3 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Mike Foltynewicz: He’s in an interesting spot on the early slate vs. the Boston Red Sox. They’ve been the best team in baseball this season against right-handed pitchers, but their projected lineup is much less fearsome with DH J.D. Martinez expected to sit. Folty’s priced at just $8,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Mike Leake: He’s dirt cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings and has an outstanding matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup owns a .290 wOBA and 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handers, which gives Leake some of the most impressive Vegas data of the day (-220 moneyline odds, 3.4 opponent implied team total).
Tyler Glasnow: He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, posting a K/9 of 11.52 over the past 12 months, but he has a tough matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s much more appealing on FanDuel, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Yandy Diaz (R)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 8. Yan Gomes (R)
Total Salary: $24,100
Ownership will obviously be very condensed on the early slate, and the Indians will likely be the most popular target: Their implied team total of 5.4 ranks first among all teams. That could make Gomes an important differentiator for Indians stacks, as he’ll likely command less ownership as the projected No. 8 hitter. He’s also in good recent form, owning a hard-hit rate of 52% over his past nine games.
They’re taking on Royals right-hander Brad Keller, who owns a pedestrian K/9 of 6.04 this season. The Indians rank fourth in wOBA and fifth in ISO against right-handers this season, so they can do a lot of damage when they put the ball in play.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
- 1. Mitch Haniger (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 7. Kyle Seager (L)
Total Salary: $14,200
The Mariners are implied for 5.2 runs and taking on a pitcher well past his prime in Andrew Cashner. The right-hander has pitched to a 5.01 FIP while managing a K/9 of just 6.03 this season, and he’s allowed a wOBA of at least .350 to both right- and left-handed batters. He’s also been significantly worse on the road this season, allowing an average of 1.58 HRs per nine innings when pitching away from Camden Yards.
The stacked batters also enter today’s contest in excellent recent form. Each has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +9 feet, and Haniger, Cruz, and Seager own hard-hit differentials of at least +5 percentage points as well.
Other Batters
Brandon Belt gets one of the biggest park upgrades in baseball on today’s slate, moving from his home field of AT&T Park to the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field. Belt is also on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela, who has pitched to a 1.43 WHIP over the past 12 months. Belt seems underpriced across the industry, but he’s a steal on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Cheap leadoff hitters are typically strong targets in MLB DFS, which puts Billy McKinney on the fantasy radar. He’s priced at just $3,600 and is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Blue Jays. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Glasnow. He’s crushed righties over the past 12 months, posting a .455 wOBA and .289 ISO, and he owns excellent Statcast marks over his past 11 games as well.
Odubel Herrera is someone who looks poised for a breakout. He’s gone just 8-of-38 over his past 11 games, but that belies an average distance of 243 feet over that time frame. That represents an increase of +41 feet compared to his 12-month average, and he has a nice matchup today vs. Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Nick Pivetta
Photo credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
