The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a five-game early slate starting at 12:10 pm ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s group of stud pitchers is a relatively deep one, with six pitchers priced at $9,700 or more on DraftKings:
Madison Bumgarner had a few shaky outings after coming off the disabled list, but he appears to be rounding back into his usual form. He’s gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, striking out seven batters in each while allowing just two total earned runs. Those starts have also come against two potent offensive teams in the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, although he has another tough test today against the Chicago Cubs: Their .348 wOBA against left-handed pitchers ranks third in the league this season.
Despite the tough matchup, Bumgarner still has the second-lowest implied team total of the day at 3.9 runs. Pitching for the poor San Francisco Giants, however, does result in Bumgarner being a slight underdog in this matchup. It’s tough to pay up for a pitcher without elite Vegas data given his $12,600 price tag, and comparable pitchers have historically struggled (per the Trends tool):
Still, this is Bumgarner we’re talking about; he’s clearly the most talented pitcher on today’s slate. His K Prediction of 7.3 ranks first on the early slate, and with 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +1 foot, 0 exit velocity, and -1 percentage points, he’s in fine recent form. It will be interesting to see what wins out in the end – the name or the Vegas data – and his ownership level will be a key dynamic on today’s slate.
On the main slate, you’ll have to choose what’s more important to you in a stud pitcher: K Prediction or Vegas data. Alex Wood and Zack Greinke lead the slate with K Predictions of 8.4 and 8.2, respectively, but the fact that they’re facing each other results in close to even moneyline odds for both. Both pitchers are also not in great recent form – Wood has a distance differential of +11 feet and Greinke is at +24 – and the fact that this game is taking place at Chase Field certainly won’t help these pitchers in that department. They definitely have upside, but they probably have more downside than usual today.
Gio Gonzalez, on the other hand, has a mediocre K Prediction of 5.3 but leads the slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs. His moneyline odds of -173 rank second on the slate, and comparable favorites have historically been strong values on FanDuel:
He also has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel, and factoring that in to the above trend increases the Plus/Minus to +4.11.
Values
Asher Wojciechowski gets to take on the Padres today, which automatically puts him into consideration for DFS. Facing the Padres has essentially been the Coors Field equivalent for pitchers, rewarding them with more fantasy points, a higher Plus/Minus, and a better Consistency Rating than any other team by a wide margin:
Wojciechowski has the third-highest K Prediction on today’s slate at 7.8, and his moneyline odds of -143 rank sixth. He’s also posted the top 15-day/12-month distance differential on the slate at -31 feet, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials, K Predictions, and odds have historically done well on DraftKings:
The only concern with Wojciechowski is how deep in this game he’ll be able to pitch. He threw 78 pitches in his previous start, which was enough to get through five innings and qualify for the win, but a pitch count that low doesn’t leave much room for error.
Collin McHugh is the largest favorite of the day with -205 moneyline odds, which should make him a popular target on today’s slate. Odds that large have historically correlated with a lot of fantasy success on FanDuel:
He has an excellent matchup against the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 28.1 percent. Despite not being a prolific strikeout artist – McHugh’s 12-month K/9 of 8.52 ranks just 11th on the slate – his matchup is good enough to result in a solid 6.3 K Prediction that ranks sixth today.
Fastballs
Brandon Woodruff: He had an impressive debut against the Tampa Bay Rays, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +14.87 on DraftKings, and he’ll look to continue that success today against the Minnesota Twins. He currently has a K Prediction of 6.0 and moneyline odds of -153; he’s only $5,900 on DraftKings. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, odds, and salaries have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.02.
Kyle Hendricks: He has the lowest implied team total of the day at 3.7 runs and is a slight favorite against Bumgarner and the Giants. He costs $4,000 less than Bumgarner on DraftKings and $2,200 less on FanDuel, which could result in higher ownership on the afternoon slate.
You can review the ownership for all pitchers on the main slate using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Orioles currently have the second-highest implied team total on the slate at 5.0 runs. They’re facing Angels righty Troy Scribner, who has not been particularly effective at the big league level early in his career. Over his first three appearances, he has an ERA of 4.50, and some of his advanced pitching metrics suggest he’s been lucky to not post worse traditional numbers over those appearances. His Statcast data is especially brutal, particularly his batted ball distance of 252 feet; pitchers with comparable recent distances have a historical Plus/Minus of -2.84. Scribner could be due for some negative regression heading forward.
The Orioles, meanwhile, have been hitting the ball well of late, with Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Seth Smith all owning 15-day/12-month distance differentials of at least +19 feet:
Those numbers could be particularly important against Scribner, who’s been an extreme fly ball pitcher so far this season. He’s allowed a fly ball rate of 70 percent, and batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.36 against pitchers with a fly ball rate of at least 50 percent.
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our models – make sure to check out Bryan Mears’ inaugural piece for the details – and the top six-man FantasyDraft stack belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers have been anemic offensively of late, but this could be a potential spot for them to break out again. Twins right-hander Bartolo Colon has had a nightmare of a season so far – 7.32 ERA, 1.55 HR/9, 1.68 WHIP – and the Brewers’ resulting implied team total of 5.6 runs ranks second on the slate. The Brewers’ recent Statcast data also suggests that they haven’t been as poor as their recent output: Three of the six stacked batters own Recent Batted Ball Luck scores of at least +58 on FantasyDraft:
These batters are relatively cheap on FantasyDraft compared to the other DFS platforms, with each batter owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent.
Batters
Joey Votto is in the midst of an impressive offensive stretch . . .
. . . and today’s contest against the Padres could present an interesting opportunity to buy low on him. He’s facing a left-handed pitcher in Travis Wood, and while that puts him on the reverse side of his batting splits, he still has an impressive 12-month wOBA of .413 and ISO of .260. Despite the strong numbers, he has a historical ownership of just 4.2 percent on DraftKings when facing a southpaw, which is a decrease of 40 percent when compared to his ownership against right-handers (7.0 percent). He’s also in great recent form over his last 14 games, with an average distance of 258 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 52 percent; his 10 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark on the slate.
Maikel Franco has been hitting the ball extremely well of late, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +49 feet, and batters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.79 on FanDuel. He’s facing a left-handed pitcher today in Sean Newcomb, and that’s been a positive for Franco over the past 12 months; he has one of the top ISO differentials of the day, with a .252 ISO against southpaws compared to a .139 ISO against righties.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
