The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Some days, you have the luxury of being able to roster a guy like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, or Chris Sale. Today is not one of those days. There are only three pitchers on FanDuel with salaries of at least $9,000, and none of them cracks the $10,000 barrier:
Charlie Morton and Shohei Ohtani are squaring off in Houston in the marquee pitching matchup of the day. Unfortunately, that’s not great for DFS purposes since it results in reduced moneyline odds for each pitcher. Morton is a slight -145 favorite, while Ohtani is a +134 underdog. Morton also has a big edge in opponent implied team total, with his mark of 3.9 runs checking in at almost a full run lower than Ohtani’s (4.7).
The Vegas data will likely result in an elevated ownership for Morton, who has been absolutely incredible to start the season on FanDuel:
That said, the Angels do represent a difficult matchup, particularly in the strikeout department. Their projected lineup has struck out in just 20.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the third-lowest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Morton’s K Prediction of 6.4 ranks just fourth on the slate. More balls in play could represent trouble for Morton, whose Statcast data from the past two starts is pedestrian. He’s posted an average batted-ball distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and hard-hit rate of 37%, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Ohtani got rocked in his most recent start against the Red Sox, and the Astros will be his toughest test yet. They were by far the best hitting team in the league against right-handed pitching last season, and their projected lineup has posted a .349 wOBA and 19.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Both of those marks are tops on the slate, so it’s tough to consider Ohtani as anything more than a contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Robbie Ray could be the most appealing option of the trio today, particularly on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s one of the top strikeout arms in baseball, evidenced by his 12-month K/9 of 12.77, and his K Prediction of 9.1 ranks first on today’s slate. He’s also posted a solid distance differential of -11 feet over his past two starts, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have historically been strong options (per the Trends tool):
Ray is also pitching in Philadelphia vs. the Phillies, and he’s been a much better fantasy option as a member of the Diamonbacks when pitching away from the unfriendly pitching confines of Chase Field:
His Vegas data could result in lower ownership than usual, as he is a slight underdog and has an opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs, which only increases his appeal for GPPs. That said, make sure to monitor the weather situation in Philly before locking Ray into your lineups, as there is currently a 63% chance of precipitation at game time.
Values
Paying down at pitcher seems like it will be the default strategy on today’s slate, especially with Coors Field available. Kenta Maeda has the top Vegas data among all pitchers, owning moneyline odds -250 and an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been awesome values on DraftKings:
He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Miami Marlins, whose offense ranks 29th in the league in runs scored to start 2018. Their projected lineup has also struck out in 27.5% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Maeda’s K Prediction of 7.7 ranks third on today’s slate. Maeda has struck out 10 batters in two of his three starts this season, so he has upside despite rarely pitching more than six innings.
Luke Weaver is the other stand-out value option. He’s disappointed a bit to begin his 2018 season after looking extremely promising last year, but his Statcast data from his past two starts is encouraging. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Weaver’s mark of +46 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky over that time frame. He could be due for some progression on today’s slate.
He’s second to Maeda in both moneyline odds (-165) and opponent implied team total (3.5 runs), while his K Prediction of 8.0 trails only Ray’s. He’s taking on the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has posted a feeble .293 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Weaver is extremely appealing on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.
Fastballs
Tanner Roark: He’s seen a decrease of $1,700 over the past month on DraftKings, resulting in a salary of $8,200 for today’s matchup vs. the Giants. He’s posted a distance differential of -13 feet over his past two starts, and pitching in San Francisco rewards him with a slate-high Park Factor of 94.
Rick Porcello: He disappointed in 2017 after winning the AL Cy Young in 2016, but he’s gotten off to a promising start through his first four outings in 2018. He’s a more appealing option today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 77%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland A’s:
The A’s are currently implied for 4.9 runs, which is the second-highest non-Coors total of the day. They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels, who has posted a HR/9 of 1.41 over the past 12 months. He’s been even more prone to the long ball to start 2018, as he’s allowed seven home runs over his first 28.1 innings. The stacked batters for the A’s are also in solid form, as all but Jed Lowrie own positive distance differentials over the past 15 days:
The A’s own the top stack on FanDuel as well, so lets pivot to the top-rated Coors Field stack:
The Padres are taking on Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has posted a dreadful 1.53 WHIP over the past 12 months. Each of the stacked batters is on the positive side of his batting splits against the southpaw:
Christian Villanueva leads the team in both wOBA and ISO against lefties over the past 12 months, and he’s absolutely destroyed the baseball over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 257 feet, which represents an increase of +35 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Manuel Margot has an even larger differential over that time frame at +51 feet, and leadoff hitters with a comparable distance differential at Coors have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +6.38 on FanDuel.
Other Batters
J.D. Martinez continues to smoke the ball for the Boston Red Sox, posting an average distance of 271 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 63% over the past 11 games. Those numbers are all among the best on the slate, and he’s on the positive side of his batting splits today against Blue Jays left-hander J.A. Happ. He’s crushed lefties to the tune of a .558 wOBA and .505 ISO over the past 12 months.
A.J. Pollack has also smoked the ball recently, and his average distance of 261 feet over the past 15 days is arguably more impressive than Martinez’s, considering his 12-month average is just 209 feet. His distance differential of +52 feet is the second-best mark on today’s slate.
Teoscar Hernandez is projected to occupy the second spot in the lineup for the Blue Jays against Porcello. He’s posted an impressive .425 wOBA and .383 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months as well as some impressive Statcast data over his past eight games. He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings, where his $3,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Kenta Maeda
Photo Credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
