The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split-slate: There’s an early slate starting at 12:10 pm ET that features five games on DraftKings and three games on FanDuel, and then there’s an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s games feature a strong group of elite pitchers with three options priced at $11,300 or higher on DraftKings:
As is the case virtually every time he pitches, Clayton Kershaw stands out as a strong option. He has the second-best moneyline odds of the day at -213, and his opponent implied total of 3.0 runs is the lowest by a wide margin:
Kershaw also has a K Prediction of 6.8, and pitching in Anaheim rewards him with a strong Park Factor of 83. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Park Factors, and Vegas data have historically been excellent values on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
He’s a rock-solid option for all formats.
Corey Kluber has been incredible since returning from the disabled list, posting an average Plus/Minus of +22.39 on FanDuel over his five starts. He has the best moneyline odds of all pitchers today at -243, and favorites that large have historically done well on FanDuel:
Kluber has the fourth-highest K Prediction among today’s starters at 7.2, and his opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs ranks second. His Statcast data over the last three starts is also excellent, with an average batted ball distance of 186 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 20 percent. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and recent Statcast data have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +6.11 on FanDuel, where Kluber has a Bargain Rating of 91 percent.
On previous days, DFS players have had to choose between Kershaw and Kluber, but with both pitchers headlining different slates that won’t be a problem today.
On other slates Chris Archer might stand out as the top overall option, but today he’s merely a pivot off Kershaw in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Compared to Kershaw, he has a significantly higher implied team total (3.9 runs) and worse moneyline odds (-117), and while he does have a solid matchup against the Pirates — their 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA of .287 is one of the worst marks on the slate — their K rate of 18.5 percent this season limits his tournament upside. He’ll likely have reduced ownership, which Pro subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
On a day with Kershaw, Kluber, and Archer, Brad Peacock actually leads the slate with a 12-month K/9 of 11.65. He gets a great matchup today against the Athletics, who have the third-highest strikeout rate this season against right-handers at 25.0 percent. With that data, his K Prediction of 8.7 is the highest on the day. He also has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Bargain Ratings have historically smashed:
In addition to having the high strikeout rate, the projected A’s lineup has the slate’s worst 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA at .253, and Peacock appears no longer to have any limitations after throwing 99 pitches in his last start. There is currently no line on this game, but Peacock figures to be a heavy favorite, and he’s posted 15-day/12-month exit velocity and hard hit differentials of -3 miles per hour and -13 percentage points. Peacock is right up there with Kluber as a top option on the early slate.
David Price is down to $7,700 on DraftKings, which seems ridiculous given how good of a pitcher this guy has been in the past. His recent results, however, have warranted the decrease in salary:
Price is a -185 favorite against the Twins, whose projected lineup has the worst splits-adjusted K rate of all teams at 29.8 percent. Price has thrown an average of 105 pitches over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable recent pitch counts and moneyline odds have historically returned value on DraftKings:
He leads the slate with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, where Price also has a Bargain Rating of 89 percent. He looks like a solid SP2 option for cash games.
Fastballs
Dinelson Lamet: He represents a cheap source of strikeout upside with a K Prediction of 8.3 and a salary of only $7,000 on DraftKings. Pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.52 and a strong Upside Rating of 16 percent.
Jameson Taillon: His Park Factor of 87 is tied for the highest mark on the slate, and he’s posted 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of -12 feet and -8 percentage points. He also has a K Prediction of 6.3 and a Bargain Rating of 72 percent on DraftKings, where comparable pitchers have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.07.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Indians lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.9 runs, and facing right-handed pitcher Andrew Cashner puts all the stacked batters on the positive side of their splits:
Each of the batters also has at least eight individual Pro Trends, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends and implied team total have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.44 on DraftKings. Of the stacked batters, Jose Ramirez is in the best recent form with 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of +19 feet and +10 percentage points.
On the main slate, one of the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the New York Yankees:
While we’ve covered the Yankees already in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, they warrant more attention. The Yankees have been one of the top teams on FanDuel this season, posting the second-highest average Plus/Minus at +1.43, and they’re second in MLB with their average of 5.64 runs per game. They’re implied for 5.8 runs in today’s contest against right-handed pitcher James Shields, whose recent batted ball distance of 229 feet is the third-worst mark on the slate. The Yankees batters are also affordable on FanDuel, where Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez both have Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent. Projected to bat leadoff, Gardner has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet, and batters with comparable differentials, lineup spots, and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.05.
The White Sox-Yankees game is currently forecast for a 47 percent chance of precipitation so make sure to monitor the weather prior to lineup lock. If this game plays, it could result in reduced ownership for GPPs.
Batters
Michael Taylor has posted a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +7.44 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, and he leads today’s slate with 12 Pro Trends. The Nationals are implied for 4.7 runs against Cubs left-hander Jon Lester, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends and implied team total have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.11. As the No. 8 hitter in a relatively tough matchup, he should have minimal ownership.
Joey Gallo gets the unenviable task of facing Kluber today, but his Statcast data over his last eight games is incredible:
Batters with comparable recent distance and exit velocities have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.28 on DraftKings, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +65 is one of the highest marks on the slate. He offers a lot of pop with what’s likely to be low ownership due to his spot at the bottom of the lineup.
Reds righty Homer Bailey is making his second start of the season today against the Brewers. He didn’t do well in his first outing, lasting only 1.2 innings. If that happens today the Brewers bats could be in a good spot with an Opposing Bullpen Rating of 89. The Brewers are currently implied for 5.0 runs, and batters with comparable implied team totals and Opposing Bullpen Ratings have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.03 on FanDuel. Ryan Braun has played only two games since returning from the disabled list, but he has posted a strong 15-day/12-month distance differential of +29 feet in that time frame.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
