The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There are three-game FanDuel and five-game DraftKings early slates starting at 1:05 p.m. and a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature a strong group of stud pitchers, with four starters owning salaries of at least $9,800 on FanDuel:
Carlos Martinez is the only high-end option available on the early slate, and he appears to check all the boxes. He leads all the early options in both moneyline odds (-215) and opponent implied team totals (3.2 runs), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been strong options on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Martinez is a strong strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of 9.47 over the past 12 months, and he’s facing a projected Reds lineup that has struck out in 26.6% of at-bats against right-handers over the same time frame. His K Prediction of 7.6 is the second-best mark on the early slate. Martinez has also posted impressive Statcast data over his past two starts, as his average batted-ball distance of 176 feet represents an advantageous differential of -24 when compared to his 12-month average. Put it all together, and he seems like the clear top option on the early slate.
Chris Sale headlines the main slate and has been extremely impressive to start 2018, posting an ERA of just 1.23 while racking up 31 strikeouts over his first 22 innings. He has a tough pitching matchup against A’s left-hander Sean Manaea, resulting in moneyline odds of just -157, but his opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs is the top mark on the slate. What really sets Sale apart is his strikeout ability. He led all starters last season with a K/9 of 13.05, and his current K Prediction of 10.3 is the top mark on the slate.
The Statcast data from his past two starts is also really impressive: 177-foot average distance, 85-mph exit velocity, 22% hard-hit rate. The distance represents a differential of -34 when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically been elite values on DraftKings:
Those pitchers have had an average ownership of 39.1%, which could be considered a conservative estimate for Sale on today’s slate.
Both Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg have the track record to challenge Sale for the top spot on the slate, but each has question marks today. Let’s start with deGrom. His moneyline odds (-156) and recent distance (176 feet) are nearly identical to Sale’s, but he offers much less strikeout upside against the Atlanta Braves. Their projected lineup has struck out in just 20.2% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving deGrom a K Prediction of just 6.7. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs is also half a run higher than Sale’s.
Strasburg is in a better strikeout spot than deGrom against the Dodgers, whose projected lineup has struck out in 28.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 8.8 suggests he could be a better pivot for those looking to avoid Sale in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but he’s just a slim -114 favorite, and of the top-end pitchers he has the worst Statcast data.
Values
Zack Godley looks like the obvious choice for those paying down at the position. He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the San Diego Padres, resulting in moneyline odds of -169 and an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs. Their projected lineup has also struck out in 30.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past year, giving Godley a K Prediction of 8.7. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have been strong values on DraftKings:
What really pushes Godley over the top is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an absolutely elite recent distance of 155 feet, which represents a distance differential of -38 when compared to his 12-month average. Factoring a comparable distance differential into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +4.60. He’s also one of the top pitcher values of the day on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 63%.
Dallas Keuchel has not gotten off to a good start this season, failing to return value in three of his first four games. However, his recent Statcast data suggests he’s been pretty unlucky over his past two games. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in average distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Keuchel’s mark of +56 is one of the top marks on the slate. He should also be one of the largest favorites of the day against the Chicago White Sox, although no line is currently posted.
Fastballs
Brent Suter: He has a nice matchup with the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .296 wOBA and 26.0% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. He’s a solid -163 favorite, and he’s also posted a distance differential of -18 over his past two starts.
Marcus Stroman: He’s a strong potential value on the early slate on DraftKings, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 95%. He has a brutal matchup with the Yankees, but that should lower his ownership for GPPs.
Mike Clevinger/Aaron Nola: They’re available only on the DraftKings early slate, but both are solid pivots for those looking to avoid Martinez. Both are favorites of at least -175, and each has posted a K/9 of at least 9.44 over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals trail only the Indians and Yankees on the early slate with an implied total of 4.9 runs. They’re taking on Reds right-hander Homer Bailey, who has posted a WHIP of 1.60 over the past 12 months. His recent Statcast data isn’t great either, as he’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 42% over his past two starts. The stacked batters have all hit righties well over the past 12 months, with each possessing a wOBA of at least .373 and an ISO of at least .191. They’re also in solid recent form, with all but Matt Carpenter owning a positive distance differential.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels are implied for 5.3 runs against Giants left-hander Derek Holland, who has posted a HR/9 of 2.10 over the past 12 months. The Angels feature a lot of lefty-killers in their lineup, particularly Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton, the latter of whom is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players. Chris Young hasn’t been as impressive as his teammates over the past 12 months, but he has posted a distance differential of +24 over the past 15 days. He’s priced at just $2,700 on DraftKings and could be a key differentiator for Angels stacks.
Other Batters
Javier Baez has been red-hot over his past 10 games:
And the numbers above don’t include his performance from Friday, when he went 4-6 with a home run and double and drove in four runs. The Cubs are playing in Coors Field today, and Baez will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson. He’s crushed lefties to the tune of a .402 wOBA and .280 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’s projected to occupy the second spot in the lineup for a Cubs team implied for 5.5 runs.
JD Martinez has posted some unreal Statcast data from his past 11 games: 290-foot distance, 99-mph exit velocity, and 68% hard-hit rate. He’s also absolutely crushed lefties over the past 12 months, posting a .558 wOBA and .505 ISO. He looks like a strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Jason Kipnis has posted an average Plus/Minus of -3.87 over his past 10 games, but his Statcast data suggests he could be due for some positive regression. He’s posted positive distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials, resulting in a RBBL of +62 on DraftKings. He has a plus matchup today against Chris Tillman, who has posted a dreadful 2.31 HR/9 and 2.05 WHIP over the past 12 months.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Zack Godley
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA Today Sports
