The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy Labor Day! Today is a great day for daily fantasy baseball, with both FanDuel and DraftKings offering a seven-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a five-game main slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature two of the best pitchers in all of baseball:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $13,400, NYM @ LAD
- Max Scherzer (R) $12,200, WSH vs. STL
deGrom is coming off what has become a trademark start in his last outing: eight innings pitched, 10 strikeouts, one earned run and zero wins. He’s recorded at least nine strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts and has averaged a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +8.61 over his past 10 on DraftKings. deGrom is making a serious case for winning not just the NL Cy Young, but the MVP as well: His 7.3 wins above replacement (WAR) mark leads all NL pitchers and position players by at least 1.5 wins.
That said, it’s hard to get too excited about deGrom today vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their projected lineup has posted a .324 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and deGrom’s opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs is only the fourth-lowest mark on the main slate. The Mets are implied for just 3.3 runs, which makes deGrom a +120 underdog.
Still, it’s not all bad for deGrom. He leads all pitchers on the main slate with a K Prediction of 8.3 and has posted a distance differential of -12 feet over his past two starts. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.22 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He will likely command lower ownership than usual, which makes him an excellent target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Scherzer is pitching on the early slate and appears to check all the boxes vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. He has the lowest opponent implied team total on the slate at 3.3 runs, while his moneyline odds of -172 rank second. The Cardinals projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 24.2% over the past 12 months, giving Scherzer an elite K Prediction of 9.3.
He also enters today’s contest in excellent recent Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 200 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 18%; all three represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. Add it all up, and comparable pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.77 and a Consistency Rating of 73.2% on DraftKings. Scherzer is also priced very fairly at the moment at just $12,200 after seeing a price decrease of $1,700 over the past month.
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Values
Alex Wood is opposing deGrom in Los Angeles, which gives him a really favorable matchup vs. the New York Mets. They’ve been arguably the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitchers this season, ranking dead last in wOBA while posting the second-highest strikeout rate. Southpaws have unsurprisingly found a lot of fantasy success against the Mets, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.14 on DraftKings in 36 starts.
Wood is not just a run-of-the-mill left-hander, either. He owns a solid 3.42 ERA this season, and his opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs ranks first on the main slate. He also owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -14 feet, and pitchers with comparable opponent implied team totals and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.44 on DraftKings.
Dallas Keuchel is taking on the Minnesota Twins and has arguably the most impressive Vegas data of the day. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs and moneyline odds of -222, and pitchers with comparable marks have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.77 on FanDuel. As usual, the big concern with Keuchel is his strikeout upside: His K Prediction of just 5.6 ranks merely sixth on the early slate. Still, he seems like a strong option for cash games, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
Zack Godley has been a strong pitching option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.41 over his past 10 starts. He has one of the most appealing matchups of the day vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has limped to a .294 wOBA and 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Godley’s resulting marks are impressive: 3.5 opponent implied team total, -247 moneyline odds, and 7.1 K Prediction.
The only thing holding him back is his recent Statcast data. He’s been hit very hard over his past two starts, allowing batters to post an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 53%. Those numbers are both among the worst of the day.
Fastballs
Erasmo Ramirez: He gets the pleasure of taking on the Baltimore Orioles, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .295 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He has -204 moneyline odds and an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs; he’s very affordable at just $6,200 on DraftKings.
Vincent Velasquez: He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted the lowest splits-adjusted wOBA over the past 12 months. Velasquez has excellent strikeout upside, evidenced by a K/9 of 9.91 this season, but has posted a dreadful distance differential of +42 feet over his past two starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
- 1. Yolmer Sanchez (S)
- 2. Nicky Delmonico (L)
- 3. Avisail Garcia (R)
- 4. Daniel Palka (L)
- 5. Matt Davidson (R)
Total Salary: $19,800
The White Sox actually boast the three highest-rated stacks in the Bales Model despite owning a relatively pedestrian implied team total of 4.5 runs. What they do have going for them is excellent recent Statcast data, with six of the top-seven batters in their projected lineup possessing a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
They’re taking on Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer, who was an All Star in 2017 but has regressed badly this season. He’s pitched to an ERA of 4.71 and a K/9 of 7.48, neither of which inspire a ton of fear for opposing offenses. He’s also been hit hard over his past two starts, allowing batters to post a hard-hit rate of 46%.
On the main slate, the top four-man stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- 1. Steven Souza (R)
- 2. A.J. Pollock (R)
- 3. David Peralta (L)
- 4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
Total Salary: $13,500
The Diamondbacks own the highest implied team total on the slate at 5.6 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 88 suggests they’re one of the best values as well. Each of the four stacked batters has a Bargain Rating of at least 90%, and they all own a hard-hit differential of at least +6 percentage points as well.
They have an elite matchup vs. San Diego right-hander Bryan Mitchell, who has posted a dreadful 1.58 HR/9 and 2.17 WHIP over the past 12 months. He’s missed approximately the past two months with an elbow injury, so he could be a bit rusty as well.
Other Batters
Kole Calhoun is on the negative side of his batting splits vs. Rangers left-hander Jeffrey Springs, but there’s still a lot to like about him today. He’s batting leadoff for an Angels offense implied for 5.3 runs, and his $2,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and Bargain Ratings have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.22.
If you’re looking for another underpriced leadoff hitter on DraftKings, Mitch Haniger could be your guy. He’s taking on Orioles lefty Josh Rogers, who will be making just his second start at the major league level. Haniger has posted a .358 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months, and the Mariners are implied for a strong 5.1 runs.
Joey Votto has just recently come off the disabled list but has shown no ill effects through his first four games. He’s posted an elite average distance of 262 feet and exit velocity of 99 miles per hour; he’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Alex Wood
Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports
