The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday provides an eight-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET. The non-waiver trade deadline is at 4:00 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Twelve of the 16 pitchers available tonight are facing teams implied to score at least 4.6 runs, greatly reducing the desired pitcher pool to a few high-priced options. The expensive pitchers on DraftKings, all of whom cost at least $10,600 and have Bargain Ratings no higher than five percent, are the four pitchers opposing teams implied to score no more than 4.4 runs:
Luis Severino costs a season-high $10,100 on FanDuel, where he leads all pitchers on the slate with a +10.44 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). He hasn’t allowed a run in 18 innings, and he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in 11 of his last 12 outings. He’s recorded a 73.7 percent FanDuel Consistency Rating this season, and he ranks in the top-10 among starting pitchers in strikeout and ground ball rate at home this season. On this slate, he’s as close to a stud you’ll find.
Severino is the most-expensive pitcher on the slate. He’s also the only one facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), and he leads the cohort with -174 moneyline odds. His recent Statcast data is solid, limiting hitters to a 179-foot batted ball distance and 23 percent fly ball rate, and the Tigers rank in the bottom-five in ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Expensive pitchers with similar K Predictions, moneyline odds, and opponent implied totals have been extremely consistent and highly-owned in DraftKings guaranteed prize pools (GPPs):
Severino profiles as the chalk in cash games and highest-owned pitcher in GPPs. His peripherals are solid, and the salary difference on DraftKings between him and the rest of the expensive pitchers isn’t enough to justify fading him in cash games. However, considering fewer shares of Severino in GPPs, simply for the ownership advantage, could be a worthwhile strategy. Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Sonny Gray‘s name has been heavily featured in trade talks. He’s scheduled to pitch tonight, but that likely won’t be solidified until after the trade deadline passes. He’s averaged 24.22 DraftKings points while pitching at least 6.0 innings in his last six starts. He didn’t dip below 20.5 DraftKings points during that span, an impressive feat considering he struck out no more than five hitters in half those outings. His current 5.4 K Prediction isn’t great, but he possesses the best recent Statcast data on the slate, limiting hitters to a 171-foot batted ball distance, 14 percent fly ball rate, and 20 percent hard hit rate.
Right-handed pitchers have averaged a +1.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Giants this season, but since the Giants have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against righties, Gray’s upside is significantly reduced. He costs season-highs of $11,700 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel — salaries close enough to Severino’s to shift Gray into a GPP pivot. The Giants are presently implied to score 4.4 runs at Oakland Coliseum, where Gray has averaged a +6.41 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season while carrying a K Prediction less than 6.0 more times than not. Ultimately, this could all be moot if Gray is traded by the deadline, further strengthening Severino’s case as the highest-owned player on the slate.
Value
Charlie Morton costs $8,800 on FanDuel, the equivalent of his highest salary on DraftKings prior to today’s $10,600 price tag. The Rays have the fourth-highest strikeout rate and ISO against right-handed pitchers this season. Nevertheless, their upside will likely be mitigated by Morton’s success against left-handed hitters, of which the projected Rays lineup has five. Morton claims the seventh-lowest wOBA (0.261) and seventh-highest strikeout rate (29.5 percent) against left-handed hitters among qualified starters this season. He presently ranks first on the slate in K Prediction (7.6) and second with an opponent implied run total of 4.0. Morton is one of only five pitchers on the slate to record at least 10 strikeouts in a start this season, doing it three times in his last 10 outings. He offers plenty of upside, especially at his FanDuel salary, and he’s limited his last two opponents to a slate-best 18 percent hard hit rate. His value on DraftKings is more as a strict pivot off Severino as an SP1, and he’s cheap enough on FanDuel to fit in some high-upside bats.
Marco Estrada, another pitcher whose name has been mentioned in trade speculation, costs less than $7,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s averaged 13.17 DraftKings points per game this season, a number he’s failed to reach in five consecutive outings. Nonetheless, he has the third-highest K Prediction (7.0) and second-highest moneyline odds (-163) on the slate, which is more indicative of the slate than it is Estrada’s abilities. The White Sox haven’t scored more than four runs in nine straight games and 16 of the last 20, and during that span they’ve ranked 29th in wOBA and sixth in strikeout rate. They’ve also traded away Melky Cabrera, who had the lowest strikeout rate on the team, further benefiting Estrada’s cause. Estrada offers little safety in cash games, but his reduced salary could be a valuable commodity as an SP2 in GPPs.
Fastball
Gio Gonzalez: He’s averaged a +9.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past 10 outings while exceeding salary-based expectations eight times. When he faced the Marlins last month, he recorded eight strikeouts in 7.0 innings — two thresholds he’s reached five times in his last nine outings. Gonzalez also leads all pitchers on the slate with 76 percent FanDuel and DraftKings Consistency Ratings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model for the main slate belongs to the Blue Jays, a team implied to score a slate-best 6.0 runs:
James Shields has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, averaging a 1.806 WHIP and 2.709 HR/9 allowed rate over the past 12 months. Left-handed hitters have been prolific against Shields, who has yielded a 0.440 wOBA and 51.8 percent fly ball rate to lefties this season. Justin Smoak, a switch hitter who will attack Shield from the left side, has averaged a 251-foot batted ball distance, 53 percent fly ball rate, and +3.55 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus over the last 15 days. The rest of the hitters in the stack cost no more than $8,000, resulting in a moderately cheap six-man stack that allows plenty of room for an expensive pitcher and solid bats. Shields has failed to pitch at least 5.0 innings in four of his last six starts, an outcome that could benefit the Blue Jays further because the White Sox bullpen has been among the most overworked over the past three games.
The Blue Jays, Athletics, and Mariners account for the top-rated DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model. The latter two stacks were covered by Justin Bailey in the MLB Pro Model Stacks article. The difference in cumulative rating points between the Royals, the fourth-highest rated stack, and the Athletics and Mariners is less than three points but an additional $1,000:
The Royals are one of 10 teams in the main slate presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs. Prior to his last outing — a nine-strikeout performance — Ubaldo Jimenez had allowed at least four runs in four straight starts. He’s been up and down this season, and over his last three starts, he’s allowed a 48 percent hard hit rate and a 222-foot batted ball distance. The Royals will re-introduce Melky Cabrera after acquiring him on Sunday, and the plan is to bat him second. Every hitter in the stack currently has at least six Pro Trends, and four of them have recorded positive batted ball distance and hard hit rate differentials over the past 15 days. Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez have averaged at least a 57 percent Consistency Rating over the past month, and with many other intriguing options on the slate, a Royals stack will likely have reduced ownership in GPPs. Despite the perceived low upside, they are facing a pitcher who has allowed 12 stolen bases this season and a slate-worst 0.441 wOBA combined with the second-highest ISO (0.211) over the past 15 days.
Batters
J.T. Realmuto and Giancarlo Stanton have two of the top-three wOBAs over the past 12 months against left-handed pitchers, and Stanton’s 0.367 ISO is the second-highest mark on the slate. Realmuto ranks in the top-five in recent batted ball distance and hard hit rate, and he has a 42.6 percent fly ball rate against lefties this season. Stanton has averaged a +2.74 FanDuel Plus/Minus against southpaws, and Realmuto has provided a +2.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50 percent Consistency Rating. The Marlins are one of the four teams implied to score no more than 4.4 runs, potentially reducing Stanton’s GPP ownership, which has hovered around 15.0 percent on FanDuel. Realmuto, who is the second-most expensive catcher on FanDuel, could be completely ignored altogether. Both hitters have tremendous upside, but lefty Gio Gonzalez already tamed them twice this season.
Chase Headley ranks second on the slate with 11 DraftKings Pro Trends, and he’s been quite unlucky with a +44 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark. He’s considerably cheaper than most of the third basemen, and since he’s projected to bat at the end of the order against right-handed Michael Fulmer, who has allowed the lowest HR/9 rate over the past 12 months, ignoring Headley may be the optimal route. That said, Headley does have nice recent Statcast data and a strong 81 Park Factor. Hitters with similar Pro Trends, Park Factors, and Recent Batted Ball Luck percentiles have actually performed well, averaging a +2.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and those in the bottom three of the lineup have still provided value:
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
