The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today features a limited group of stud pitchers, with only two possessing salaries above $10,000 on DraftKings:
Zach Greinke is the priciest option on DraftKings and he’s in a bit of a boom-or-bust spot against the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ve posted the eighth-highest wOBA this season against right-handed pitchers, and Greinke’s opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs is higher than usual for a pitcher of his caliber. He’s also a favorite of just -122, so his Vegas data is pretty mediocre.
But Greinke’s strikeout upside is relatively high. The projected Brewers lineup has struck out in 29.3% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on today’s slate. Greinke’s K Prediction of 8.4 leads all of today’s starters, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically been nice DraftKings options (per the Trends tool):
The weather in Milwaukee is forecast to be pretty terrible, but luckily Miller Park has a retractable roof.
Gio Gonzalez doesn’t have Greinke’s strikeout upside, but he has much better Vegas data against the San Diego Padres. His opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -176 rank fifth. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been solid values on DraftKings:
The Statcast data from his past two starts is also better than Greinke’s — he has a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -3 feet — and he’s thrown at least 110 pitches in his two recent starts. Overall, he might be the safer option for cash games, whereas Greinke probably provides more upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Both options provide significantly better value on FanDuel, where they have Bargain Ratings of 99%.
Values
Given the lack of top-end pitchers available, there is unsurprisingly a bunch of appealing value options.
It’s hard to consider Walker Buehler a value option on FanDuel, where he’s the priciest option on the slate, but his $9,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 51%. He has lived up to his billing as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five starts at the big-league level. He’s been particularly effective as a strikeout artist, owning a K/9 of 11.33.
He has a nice matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who are tied with the Padres for the lowest mark on the slate with an implied team total of 3.2 runs. He’s also a solid -170 favorite, and his K Prediction of 7.0 ranks fifth. The one factor working against Buehler is his recent Statcast data, particularly his average distance of 223 feet. It represents an increase of +27 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and he could be due for regression with a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -70. Still, it’s hard to discount the upside he provides at his current DraftKings salary.
Masahiro Tanaka might provide the best combination of Vegas data and strikeout upside on today’s slate. He’s a strong -190 favorite against the Texas Rangers, and he trails only Greinke with his K Prediction of 8.0. Pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and K Predictions have historically been among the best investments at pitcher on FanDuel:
That said, his Vegas data stems more from the team he plays for than the team he’s playing. The Yankees are implied for a slate-best 5.6 runs, but the Rangers’ implied team total of 4.0 runs isn’t especially exploitable.
Robbie Erlin is popping in our MLB Models on DraftKings, where he’s priced at just $4,400. He boasts a strong 2.25 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to start the 2018 season, but the majority of his innings have come out of the bullpen. He boasts strong marks in both K Prediction (7.2) and recent distance differential (-16 feet), and pitchers with comparable marks and salaries have averaged an Upside Rating of 22%. If he manages to go even five innings, he has big upside at his current salary.
Fastballs
Jose Berrios: He’s the largest favorite on today’s slate, owning -192 moneyline odds against the Detroit Tigers. Unfortunately, the rest of his marks aren’t nearly as impressive: 3.6-run opponent implied total, 6.5 K Prediction, +18-foot distance differential. That said, his salary has decreased by $3,400 on DraftKings over the past month, so this could a good time to buy low.
Michael Foltynewicz: He hasn’t allowed an earned run in each of his past two starts, and his Statcast data over that time is impressive. He’s allowed an average distance of just 175 feet, which represents a differential of -41 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He also tallied a season-best 10 strikeouts in his most recent start vs. the Cubs, so he has significant upside in that department. He’s a slight underdog vs. the Phillies, but that could limit his ownership in GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the St Louis Cardinals:
The Cards’ implied team total of 5.1 runs is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, and they have a strong matchup against Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy, who has allowed an average HR/9 of 2.06 over the past 12 months. His average distance of 232 feet over the past two starts is the worst mark among today’s starters.
The Cards batters are led by projected No. 2 hitter Matt Carpenter, who has crushed the ball over the past 15 days. He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 245 feet and hard hit rate of 59%, both of which improve upon his 12-month averages. His short-term fantasy production hasn’t matched his play — he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.78 on DraftKings over the past half-month — but his +67 RBBL and $600 salary decrease suggest that now is an excellent time to buy low.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees will likely be the most popular team on today’s slate given their implied total, but stacking them in a 1-2-3-7 manner should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. They’re taking on the ancient Rangers pitcher Bartolo Colon, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.84 over the past 12 months.
The above Yanks stack features a couple of hitters in great form in Aaron Judge and Neil Walker. They both have an average distance of 253 feet over the past 15 days, and Judge has combined that with a ridiculous 98-mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate. Walker has a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel and is currently projected for just 2-4% ownership, which could make him an important differentiator in Yanks stacks.
Other Batters
Joc Pederson is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Dodgers and is on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies right-hander German Marquez. He’s owned righties over the past year with a .354 wOBA and .222 ISO, and he’s also posted a distance differential of +29 feet over his past 12 games. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where his $2,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Asdrubal Cabrera was supposed to get a day off yesterday, but he entered the game in the seventh inning as a pinch hitter and deposited a home run into the left-field seats. He’s been impressive for the Mets this season, posting a .389 wOBA through his first 41 games, and the Statcast data from his past 11 games has been even more impressive. He’s averaged a 240-foot distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate, all of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Max Kepler is on the negative side of his batting splits against Tigers left-hander Blaine Hardy, which could make him an overlooked option. He’s projected to occupy the No. 2 spot in the lineup for a Twins team implied for 5.1 runs, and his average distance of 237 feet over the past 12 games represents an increase of +25 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26 on FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Tommy Pham (28) & Matt Carpenter
Photo credit: Jake Roth-USA Today Sports
