The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m ET. Also, be aware of this issue that arose after I finished the breakdown:
Game note: Possibility Royals-Blue Jays won’t be played Monday due to falling ice around Rogers Centre. Will update.
— FantasyLabs MLB (@FantasyLabsMLB) April 16, 2018
Pitchers
Studs
Monday’s main slate is void of any top-end pitching salaries. On FanDuel, there are just three pitchers priced $8,500 or more:
Jacob deGrom will take the mound against the solid Washington Nationals, but they may be without Brian Goodwin (sore wrist) and Anthony Rendon (sore toe). The Mets are -164 moneyline favorites and the Nationals are implied for a mediocre 3.5 runs. deGrom boasts the second-highest SO/9 on the slate (10.76) over the past 12 months, and he is sporting a healthy 7.7 K Prediction. deGrom also has the benefit of pitching at home, where he has historically dominated, averaging 41.56 FanDuel Points with an 8.3 Plus/Minus and a 74% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
While deGrom gave up four earned runs to the Marlins in his last start, his Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +18 suggests he has been unlucky. He has exceptional Statcast data over his past two starts with a recent average batted-ball distance of 183 feet and exit velocity of 88 miles per hour.
Aaron Nola dominated in his home debut in his last start, striking out six batters over eight innings against the Reds. He now, however, takes on a Braves team that doesn’t strike out often with a 20.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. Overall, Nola is an excellent pitcher with a 1.18 WHIP, 0.98 HR/9, and 9.49 SO/9, and his recent Statcast data look excellent with a recent average distance of 169 feet and exit velocity of 88 mph, and he’s drawing a lot of soft contact with a hard-hit rate of just 15%. The concern is that he might have limited strikeout upside against the Braves, and he has worrisome home/road splits, averaging nearly 11 fantasy points per game (PPG) fewer on the road since 2015:
James Paxton will face a potent, righty-heavy Astros lineup, and the Mariners are slight underdogs (+102 moneyline odds). The Astros will likely be difficult for Paxton to retire, as their first six batters are all righties, and their projected lineup has a 20.5% strikeout rate against lefties along with a slate-best .358 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. Paxton also has some concerning Statcast data over his past two starts with an average distance of 227 feet, which is 19 feet more than his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable differentials have averaged a -1.61 Plus/Minus.
Values
Blake Snell will likely be a popular option on DraftKings as an SP2, as he has a projected ownership of 26-30%. He’ll take on a strikeout-heavy Rangers offense whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 30.2% and .271 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Snell boasts a 6.8 K Prediction, the Rays are sizeable favorites (-171 moneyline odds), and the Rangers are implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable metrics and Vegas data have averaged 19.51 DraftKings PPG with a +2.00 Plus/Minus.
Daniel Mengden has the third-highest Bargain Rating (63%) on DraftKings, but Matt LaMarca covered him in today’s Three Key MLB Players piece, so I’ll touch on another player.
Jaime Garcia has a serviceable 6.1 K Prediction, and he is seemingly in a good spot, as the Blue Jays are the slate’s biggest favorites (-206 moneyline odds). The projected Royals lineup doesn’t strike out often against lefties (23.5% K rate over the past 12 months), but it has a mediocre .286 wOBA, and the Royals are implied for just 3.7 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable metrics and Vegas data have been solid values:
Fastballs
Hyun-jin Ryu is a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, as evidenced by his 98% Bargain Rating. The projected Padres lineup has an exceptional wOBA (.358) against lefties over the past 12 months, but it also has a high 30.5% strikeout rate and implied run total of 3.5. Ryu has a K Prediction of 6.0, and the Dodgers are -141 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with comparable metrics and Vegas data have historically averaged 33.36 FanDuel PPG with a +2.31 Plus/Minus.
Dallas Keuchel has struggled this season, posting a -8.08 Plus/Minus on FanDuel over his past three starts, and he now has a terrible matchup vs. a projected Mariners lineup with a 19.7% strikeout rate and .320 wOBA over the past 12 months. However, Keuchel could be an intriguing tournament option, as the Astros are slight favorites (-110 moneyline odds), and his RBBL of +68 suggests that he has been incredibly unlucky. Keuchel has excellent Statcast data with a recent average distance of 166 feet, exit velocity of 84 mph, and hard-hit rate of 17%. Pitchers with comparable Statcast data have historically been solid contrarian plays:
Luis Castillo has slightly worse data than Keuchel with his recent average distance of 187 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and hard-hit rate of 29% along with an RBBL of +71. However, Castillo has more upside than Keuchal, as evidenced by his 9.93 SO/9 over the past 12 months and his 8.2 K Prediction against a Brewers team with a strikeout rate of 27.9% against righties. Even so, the Reds are underdogs, and the Brewers are implied for 4.5 runs. However, there are some encouraging signs for the Reds, as they’ve received 37% of the tickets but 63% of the money and their line has moved from +130 to +115, indicating that the sharps are on the Reds.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top stack on FanDuel in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays, who are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs against left-hander Eric Skoglund:
Skoglund has an atrocious 2.23 WHIP over the past 12 months, and he got throttled in his first start of the season, allowing a batted-ball distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 42%. Steve Pearce is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players, so I’ll highlight a teammate. Justin Smoak fairs well against lefties, with an elite .406 wOBA and .206 isolated power (ISO). He has also been crushing the ball with a recent average distance of 233 feet and exit velocity of 93 mph. Batters with comparable Statcast data and implied run totals have historically been solid investments:
One of the top five-man stacks on DraftKings in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics. The A’s take on right-hander Reynaldo Lopez:
Lopez has been solid in his first two starts of the season, allowing just one earned run over 13.0 innings pitched, but the A’s are still implied for 4.7 runs — the third-highest mark on the slate. Lopez has allowed a recent average distance of just 195 feet in his first two starts, but he’s still an extreme fly-ball pitcher with his 47% fly-ball rate over the past 12 months. Squaring off against the righty, the whole 1-5 stack will be on the positive side of its wOBA and ISO splits:
Other Batters
If you’re in need of salary relief, Chris Iannetta has a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he’s projected to bat second for the Rockies. Iannetta has posted a .407 wOBA and .264 ISO against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a +2.35 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games on DraftKings, where he’s sporting a 96% Bargain Rating. He’s been smashing the ball lately with an average distance of 232 feet and exit velocity of 91 mph. Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto will also be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits. They’re affordable across both sites, and the Mets are implied for 4.6 runs against Hellickson:
Trevor Story has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and boasts an exceptional .396 wOBA and .303 ISO over the past 12 months against lefties. Story will likely be low-owned in a tough environment for batters with a Park Factor of just two and a Weather Rating of 39.
Trea Turner (.47) and Billy Hamilton (.45) lead the slate in Stolen Base Prediction, and each batter hits near the top of the lineup. Batters with comparable metrics have historically averaged 10.84 FanDuel points per game with a +1.20 Plus/Minus and a 46.3% Consistency Rating. Turner especially is a solid tournament play, as he should be low-owned against deGrom.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Blake Snell
Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
