The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a limit group of top-end pitchers, with only two that cost at least $8,200 on FanDuel:
Lance McCullers appears to check all the boxes. His Vegas data is absolutely elite: He leads all pitchers in both moneyline odds (-280) and opponent implied run total (3.1). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have crushed on FanDuel:
McCullers is also the best strikeout pitcher on the slate, as evidenced by his K/9 of 10.61 over the past 12 months. That results in a strikeout prediction of 7.4 tonight, and factoring a comparable prediction into the above Trend increases the Plus/Minus to a ridiculous +10.21 and the Consistency to 78.9%.
McCullers’ Statcast data from his first start was impressive as well. He induced ground balls at a 70% clip, resulting in an average batted ball distance of just 172 feet, which represents a decrease of 17 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The only concern with McCullers is the windy conditions in Houston. The wind is currently forecasted to blow out to center field at 14 miles per hour, but McCullers’ ground ball proficiency gives him as good a chance as anyone to thrive under those conditions. He should be extremely popular in all formats.
Kyle Hendricks could be an intriguing pivot for those looking to avoid McCullers. His opponent implied run total of 3.9 is drastically higher than McCullers’, but the Brewers whiffed at the highest rate in the league against right-handed pitchers in 2017. They’ve made some additions to their lineup this season — most notably Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich — but their projected lineup still has a strikeout rate of 23.9% against right-handers over the past 12 months. Hendricks is never going to be confused with the top strikeout pitchers in the league, but his K/9 of 8.05 over the past 12 months suggests he’s capable of taking advantage of a strikeout-prone lineup. Hendricks is currently projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, which could make him an intriguing target in guaranteed prize pool tournaments.
Values
CC Sabathia is still capable of getting the job done even at his advanced age. He posted an ERA of 3.69 over 27 starts in 2017 and followed that up by allowing one earned run over five innings in his first start of 2018. He’s the second-largest favorite on today’s slate as he takes on the Orioles (-174 moneyline odds), and he’s affordable at just $7,900 on DraftKings. Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and salaries have been solid values:
Sabathia also has decent strikeout upside against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has struck out in 26.6% of at bats versus left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Luis Castillo was a bit of a disappointment in his first start of season, surrendering six runs over five innings against the Nationals. That said, today’s matchup with the Pirates should be much friendlier. Their projected lineup has a wOBA of just .316 against right-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.6 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Castillo has also displayed elite strikeout ability early in his MLB career, posting a K/9 of 10.45. His K Prediction of 7.7 is the top mark on today’s slate. Pitching in Pittsburgh also rewards him with a Park Factor of 91, also tops on today’s slate.
Fastballs
Marco Estrada: He benefits from pitching for the Blue Jays, who are currently implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs, resulting in -123 moneyline odds. Estrada’s K Prediction of 6.9 ranks third on the slate. Some people may be scored off by his opponent implied run total of 5.1, but there are no sure things on this slate outside of possibly McCullers.
Parker Bridwell: He’s another moderate favorite, at -134, an pitching in Los Angeles results in a Park Factor of 88. He’s making his first start of the season, but posted a solid 3.64 ERA over 121 innings in 2017.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your daily fantasy lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on today’s slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros’ implied run total of 5.5 trails only the Blue Jays, and Houston has scary upside against the Padres. The Astros dominated against right-handed pitchers last season, leading the league with a .349 wOBA, and the projected conditions in Houston should only help them today. Opposing pitcher Luis Perdomo has historically been an extreme ground ball pitcher, but he posted an average distance of 262 feet in his first start this season. The Astros will likely be a popular target, but stacking them in the above 1-2-4-6-9 manner increases your chances of having a unique lineup.
George Springer was covered in today’s Three Key Players piece, so I’ll highlight some of the other stacked batters instead. Derek Fisher is projected to bat ninth, but his recent batted-ball profile doesn’t look like that of a typical No. 9 hitter. Fisher’s crushed the ball recently, posting an average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 101 miles per hour, and hard hit-rate of 66%, and batters with comparable Statcast data and implied team totals have historically been nice values:
The top FanDuel stack also belongs to the Astros, so let’s focus on a different team instead. The Yankees are third on the slate with an implied team total of 5.2 runs, which makes them an intriguing target. Their top-rated stack ranks fourth in our stack builder and could fly a bit under-the-radar:
They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman, who has posted a 1.60 HR/9 over the past 12 months and gave up three HRs in his first start this season against the Twins.
One batter in particular who stands out is Neil Walker. He’s been in excellent form to start the season, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +26 feet. He’s currently projected for just 2-4% ownership, which could make him an important differentiator for Yankees stacks.
Other Batters
Justin Smoak continues to destroy the baseball for the Blue Jays, posting an average distance of 263 feet over his first seven games. He should be a popular target today, especially considering Toronto’s implied run total.
Matt Olson has some of the top batting splits on the slate. He’s destroyed righties over the past 12 months, posting a .463 wOBA and .455 ISO. He’s also been solid as of late, owning 15-day/12-month distance and hard-hit differentials of +8 feet and +11 percentage points.
Ben Zobrist will occupy the leadoff spot for the Cubs on today’s slate, and he’s priced at just $2,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. Leadoff hitters with comparable Bargain Ratings and salaries have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +1.71.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Robbie Ray.
Photo Credit: Shanna Lockwood — USA Today Sports.
