The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features just one NBA playoff game: Rockets-Jazz at 8 p.m. ET. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have low-stakes guaranteed prize pools with $100,000 first-place prizes for their one-game contests, and this article will focus primarily on strategy for winning those contests.
Here are some quick notes about how the one-game slates work in case you’re unfamiliar:
- DraftKings uses its normal $50,000 cap and simply gives you six utility slots so that you don’t have to worry about positional eligibility.
- FanDuel uses its normal $60,000 cap and gives you five slots: one guard, one forward/center, two utility slots, and an MVP slot, which comes with a 1.5x scoring multiplier.
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets (-11) | O/U: 205.5
Rockets (108.25 implied points)
James Harden is the premier play on the slate and the top consideration for FanDuel’s MVP slot. Utah’s vaunted defense hasn’t been able to slow Harden, who this season is shooting 53.0% from the field and 46.9% from 3 across five regular-season and postseason meetings with the Jazz. Harden averaged 54.7 FanDuel points per game in those contests.
Clint Capela‘s matchup against Rudy Gobert is tougher than his matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns in Round 1, but Capela is capable of still getting his either by sprinting back in transition and simply outrunning Gobert to the cup, or by getting in behind Gobert when Gobert is forced to step up and help on Harden or Chris Paul. Houston’s small-ball lineups also help Capela maintain a high floor, as he’s the team’s primary rebounder and has pulled in no less than 11 in every playoff game thus far. Capela also outperforms salary-based expectations more than any other Rocket at home:
Chris Paul‘s production has been negatively correlated with Harden’s this season, making him a better pivot off Harden than stacking partner with him.
Top-heavy Harden lineups will need to be balanced out by cheap value plays, and Houston has a bunch at different price points. Luc Mbah a Moute returned from a shoulder injury to play 21 minutes in Game 1, and though he tends to average fantasy points per minute in the 0.6 to 0.7 range, that amount of playing time would still be enough for him to be valuable on a dollar-per-point basis as one of the cheapest plays on the slate. P.J. Tucker has played at least 33 minutes in each of Houston’s last two playoff games and offers similar efficiency and dollar-per-point value. Tucker’s 8-of-12 shooting from downtown during that span is bound to cool off, but he’ll likely continue to get open shots as opposing defenses have no choice but to make stopping him their lowest priority.
Pricing doesn’t make wings Trevor Ariza or Eric Gordon stand out, especially when an increasingly more active Jae Crowder is also available at a similar price point. Ariza and Gordon would likely need a 3-point barrage to hit value. Utah allowed the fifth-fewest made 3-pointers during the regular season but did show vulnerability in Game 1, allowing Houston to go 17-of-32 from beyond the arc.
Guys on the back-end of the rotation like Nene, Ryan Anderson, and Gerald Green aren’t likely to play more than 10 minutes or so. They make for better plays on DraftKings than FanDuel due to the former’s lower salary floor.
Jazz (97.25 implied points)
During the regular season and playoffs combined, Donovan Mitchell‘s usage rate has been 27.1% with Ricky Rubio on the floor and 32.2% with him off, with Mitchell’s assist rate also going from 16.2% to 21.4% sans Rubio, per our NBA On/Off tool. That’s resulted in Mitchell’s DraftKings points per minute increasing from 0.95 with Rubio on the court to 1.06 with Rubio off. Mitchell has the upside to score way more than the 30.75 DraftKings points he scored in Game 1, when he put up 21 points and dished out five assists but failed to add any peripheral stats other than a playoff-low three rebounds while turning the ball over four times. Still, it’s worth noting that those 21 points were also a playoff-low for Mitchell, and in five meetings spanning the regular season and playoffs, Houston has held Mitchell to 12% fewer DraftKings points per minute than his season average.
Jae Crowder has played 33.3 minutes per game over Utah’s last three playoff games and his salary doesn’t still quite reflect that. In two meetings with the Rockets since the All-Star break, Crowder has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but even if he averaged closer to his usual range of 0.7-0.8, he’d still be one of the better values on the slate if he continues to play 30-plus minutes. On the other hand, Derrick Favors played only 26 minutes in Game 1 of this series after averaging 32.8 minutes per game in Round 1. A small-ball 4 like Crowder is better suited for matchups like this, and Favors’ high in minutes played against Houston this season is only 28:07. Favors does average 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with Rubio off the floor compared to 0.85 with him on, but he may have to do more in less to hit value in this series.
Joe Ingles and Royce O’Neale are two players at different price points that benefit from Rubio’s absence in different ways. Like Mitchell, Ingles takes on more playmaking responsibilities with Rubio sidelined. Per the On/Off tool, Ingles has seen an increase in assist rate from 19.0% to 26.1% with Rubio on vs. off during the regular season and playoffs, and he’s also seen an increase in usage rate from 15.2% to 17.6%. That’s been worth a 10% increase in DraftKings points per minute for Ingles with Rubio off vs. on. On the other hand, it’s not O’Neale’s per-minute production that sees a jump without Rubio; it’s his minutes themselves: He got 28:33 of playing time in Game 1 after logging 18.0 minutes per contest in Round 1.
Rudy Gobert may be the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, but this matchup puts him in a tough spot defensively, forcing him to leave the paint and play perimeter defense more than he’d like. Even crashing the offensive glass becomes more of a risk, as Capela can beat him down the floor for an easy 2, or he could be late getting back and be forced into a perimeter mismatch. For those reasons, it’s no surprise Gobert’s 0.8 DraftKings points per minute across four meetings versus Houston this season is way down from his average of 1.03 over the past month and 1.08 over the past calendar year. Gobert averaged 10.7 rebounds per game during the regular season but only 7.25 against Houston during the regular season and playoffs combined.
Point guards Alec Burks, Dante Exum, and forward Jonas Jerebko round out the Jazz rotation. Burks is the best bet for minutes after playing 20 minutes in Game 1 and posting six points, six rebounds, three assists, and a steal in the process. Exum played 15 minutes and contributed nine points, one rebound, and one assist. Jerebko is averaging 6.3 minutes during the playoffs, but that’s the most minutes you can lock in at the $1,000 minimum on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: James Harden
Photo credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
