On Monday, the NBA has a great doubleheader to start the week. The first game is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference series between the Pacers and the Knicks, and the second game is Game 2 of the Western Conference series between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets. The defending champs dropped Game 1 at home, and they’ll look to avoid an 0-2 hole before the series heads to the Twin Cities.
As they have been before their last few games, Jamal Murray (calf) and Tyrese Haliburton (back) are both listed as questionable but the assumption is that both will continue to play through their injuries. Other than that, it’s a pretty clean injury report, but still, be sure to always refresh the models for the latest projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
With Tom Thibodeau’s tendency to play his starters huge minutes and Jalen Brunson’s productivity at the heart of the offense, Brunson continues to be an absolute fantasy stud. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate even though his salary is $9,500, and he brings the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate behind only Nikola Jokic (discussed below).
As the clear focus of the offense, Brunson was great in the regular season and has been even more outstanding in the playoffs. Over the six games against the 76ers, he averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in 43.7 minutes per game. He led the team by far with a 37.3% usage rate and finished that series with four straight games over 58 DraftKings points and at least 10 DraftKings points above his salary-based expectations.
His great matchup with the up-tempo Pacers further enhances Brunson’s projections. The Knicks have the highest implied team total on the slate, and since their offense is in Brunson’s hands, he should be poised for another massive series. Against the Pacers, he averaged 45.9 DraftKings points in three games this season. Since he’s cheaper than Jokic, he’s much easier to build around on Monday’s slate, and his Projected Plus/Minus indicates he’ll end up being a better value as well.
Value
The point guard with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on Monday’s slate is Mike Conley, who had a very nice double-double in Game 1 with 14 points and 10 assists for 37 DraftKings points in his best performance of the playoffs.
Conley is under $6,000 and is a nice way to save salary but still get full minutes with good usage. So far in this year’s playoffs, the veteran point guard has played 31.4 minutes per game. He only scored four points in the first game of the series against the Suns but has reached double-digit points in each game since then. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those four games while adding seven assists or more in each of his last three.
Fast Break
The Nuggets got great production from Jamal Murray in their first-round win over the Lakers, but he struggled in Game 1 of this series. For the first time in the postseason, he fell short of 20 points, finishing with only 17 points and four assists. He took a playoff-low 14 field goal attempts. He’ll need to be more involved if the Nuggets want to level their series at 1-1, and hopefully, his calf issue doesn’t hold him back moving forward as it appeared to in Game 1. He’s a riskier play than Brunson, although he has a very high ceiling and the third-best Projected Plus/Minus at point guard.
Tyrese Haliburton has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, ranking just ahead of Murray and just behind Brunson. He had a double-double in the series clincher against the Bucks and at least 38 DraftKings points in four of the last five games in that series. He lit up the Knicks for 50.3 DraftKings points per game in their three matchups in the regular season.
In Game 6 against the Bucks, T.J. McConnell actually outscored Haliburton and was second on the team, with 20 points and nine assists to go with four steals on his way to an impressive 44.5 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes. He averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in the six games in the series while playing just 17.8 minutes per game. He doesn’t usually get high usage, but he has shown he can make the most of his chances and is a nice salary-saver at $4,400.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards was dominant in Game 1 of this series, producing 43 points and 63.25 DraftKings points in 42 minutes. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at shooting guard on this slate by a wide margin and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Edwards has scored over 35 points in three straight games for the Timberwolves and seems to be finding a new level of superstar production in the playoffs. He has over 55 DraftKings points in four of his five postseason games this season and has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute.
He’ll continue to be the focus of the Timberwolves offense, and he has looked unstoppable in his past few games. With a chance to take a firm grasp of the series and head home, don’t be surprised if Edwards has another big game on Monday.
Value
Miles McBride is a very affordable option at just $3,900, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $4,500 on this slate and the third-highest overall at shooting guard.
McBride is a volatile play with good upside. He had 35.25 DraftKings points in the first game of the series against the Sixers but only 3.5 DraftKings points in the close-out Game 6. While he averaged 23.3 minutes per game in the series, he only played nine in that contest.
The Knicks play a tight rotation, and McBride has been the sixth man for coach Thibs in the playoffs. He should continue to play that role in this series against the Pacers and has the potential to thrive in this style of up-tempo contest. His shooting can be a little streaky, but when he’s on, he can fill it up from long-range and be an elite play for this price.
Fast Break
McBride played fewer minutes in Game 6 because Donte DiVincenzo played all 48 minutes of the game and went off for 50.5 DraftKings points. His 23 points were his highest of the postseason. With Bojan Bogdanovic (foot) out for Game 1, DiVincenzo has a projection of 34.0 minutes in Game 1 of this series. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of the shooting guards on the slate.
Andrew Nembhard exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games to finish the Pacers’ last series. He played over 31 minutes and scored at least 12 points in each of those five contests, producing 29 DraftKings points or more in four of them. That’s enough to be a great return at his salary of $5,000.
Against the Suns, Nickeil Alexander-Walker was excellent off the bench, reaching double-digit points and exceeding salary-based expectations three times. He had five points but played 23 minutes in Game 1 against the Nuggets, showing he has the potential for more production if he gets that much of a workload.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Even though Brunson carried more usage and DiVincenzo played every minute of Game 6, it was actually Josh Hart who led the Knicks in minutes in the first round. He averaged an amazing 46.3 minutes and produced 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. In this series, he should continue to get massive minutes, making him a good play with a high ceiling.
He has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all small forwards on the slate, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus. Hart exceeded salary-based expectations by at least nine DraftKings points in three games in Round 1, including a pair of 20-point double-doubles in the first two games of the series. He will look to get off to a similar start to this series on Monday at Madison Square Garden.
Value
Aaron Nesmith has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward after his strong series against the Bucks. He doesn’t have the high ceiling of some of the more expensive plays, but at only $4,800, he plays plenty of minutes and gets good usage.
In the six games against Milwaukee, Nesmith averaged 35.0 minutes per game with a 15.4% usage rate. He produced 0.7 DraftKings points per minute and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last five games of the series. He scored 11+ points in four of the last five games in the series and finished with over 30 DraftKings points twice in the series.
He’s a solid option that can also slide to shooting guard, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at that position as well. His versatility and established role with good upside make him a great play at either spot if you need to spend under $5,000.
Fast Break
OG Anunoby is another Knick getting a massive workload. He played over 45 minutes in the final three games of the series against the 76ers. In each of the four games in that series, he exceeded salary-based expectations and scored over 15 points. His best game of the series was Game 4 when he had 16 points, 14 boards, and over 40 DraftKings points. He’s a solid mid-range play if you can pay up a little for him at just under $6,000. He has been more reliable than DiVincenzo so far this postseason.
Jaden McDaniels had spike game with 25 points in Game 2 against the Suns, finishing with 42 DraftKings points. He has that kind of a ceiling in any game, but he can also go scoreless as he did in Game 1 against Denver. He’s a boom-or-bust play, but his ceiling at just $4,500 makes him worth considering at least in GPPs.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Pacers got two monster games from Pascal Siakam to start the playoffs, but he calmed down for the rest of their six games against the Bucks. He still has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at power forward, although Hart has a better Projected Plus/Minus since his salary is $1,000 lower.
Siakam showed his ceiling with 30 points in two double-doubles to produce over 60 DraftKings points in each of the two games in Milwaukee to start the first round. For the whole series, he averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with 24.9% usage in 37.8 minutes per game.
He and Haliburton are the key to the best version of the Pacers’ offense, and if they get going, either or both can smash the slate with a huge number. The two Indiana stars haven’t been as consistent as Brunson, Edwards, or Jokic, though, making them riskier pay-up plays on Monday.
Value
In the other series, Karl-Anthony Towns stepped up with 20 points in Game 1 against the Nuggets, and he edges out Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon for the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward.
KAT has been working his way back to full strength after his lengthy layoff and is starting to show signs of returning to his top form. He was limited to under 27 minutes in the first three games against the Suns but played 39 minutes in the close-out win in Game 4. He had his best fantasy game of the playoffs in that contest, finishing with 28 points, 10 boards, and 48.5 DraftKings points.
In Game 1, he had 30 DraftKings points in 30 minutes but only managed four rebounds. If his work on the glass picks up and his minutes stay high, he should be a great value at $6,800.
Fast Break
Of the two Denver power forwards, Porter Jr. has been the better fantasy option for most of the playoffs. He had 20 points and 38 DraftKings points in 40 minutes in Game 1 after scoring at least 19 points and producing at least 36 DraftKings points in all five games against the Lakers. Getting him under $7,000 makes him a great value if you don’t think Towns is quite ready to take on his full workload.
As a value play, Obi Toppin has been excellent lately off the Pacers bench. He had 12+ points in four straight games to finish the series against the Bucks, scoring a series-high 21 points in Game 6. Returning to Madison Square Garden should give the former Knick a boost as he looks to continue to provide offensive spark and energy off the bench.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
As usual, Nikola Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of any player on Monday’s slate. He also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate despite his elevated salary.
In Denver’s Game 1 loss, Jokic still had 59 DraftKings points on 32 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds. As good as he was, he can be even better. Against the Lakers in the first round, he had two triple-doubles with 75 and 79.5 DraftKings points and also posted a 20-rebound game that earned him 62 DraftKings points.
In his six games this postseason, Jokic has averaged an impressive 1.64 DraftKings points per minute while playing over 40 minutes per game. He brings an extremely high floor to go with his seemingly limitless ceiling. He’s tough to build around at $11,000, but he has proven to be worth every bit of his salary multiple times this postseason.
Value
Facing the Bucks without Giannis, Myles Turner thrived in Round 1 for the Pacers, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate this Monday, behind just Brunson.
Turner averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and played 33.3 minutes per game. He took it easy in Game 6 with just five points and five rebounds, but in the closer games early in the series, he exceeded salary-based expectations four times with three games of a Plus/Minus of at least +13 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has to try and slow down Jokic on the defensive end, so his usage may be a little lower in this series. He had 13 boards and six points in Game 1 and will likely continue to get plenty of minutes as the series goes on. He has a high ceiling but is expensive for a player who mostly focuses on the defensive end. Editor’s Note: Gobert is questionable for tonight.
Gobert’s backup, Naz Reid, has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers under $5,000, edging out Mitchell Robinson. Reid has proven he can produce when called upon, but with Gobert and KAT healthy, there may be limited minutes for him in this series.
Robinson split time at center with Isaiah Hartenstein against Embiid and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last two games of that series even though he only scored two points in each contest. His defense and rebounding make him a solid option at only $4,000.
