The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($11,000) Houston Astros (-290) at Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander is still going strong at age 40 with a 3.15 ERA in 16 starts this season. Since rejoining the Astros at the deadline, he is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four outings.
PlateIQ shows the Tigers are a strong matchup with a low .148 team ISO and .303 wOBA. The team has a very low fantasy point projection against Verlander on Sunday.
In his last start, Verlander notched a season-high nine strikeouts in six scoreless innings against the Red Sox. He is a solid high-end pitching option on today’s slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Bailey Falter ($6,300) Pittsburgh Pirates (-102) vs. Chicago Cubs
Still looking for his first win of the season, Bailey Falter is at the top of Sunday’s bargain ratings. Falter is 0-7 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Despite some rough overall numbers, Falter has been better over the past month. He has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts.
Falter does not have a huge ceiling due to his low K%, but he has still managed two straight positive Plus/Minus outings in a row. For the price tag, he is an interesting option against the Cubs.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jack Flaherty ($8,400) Baltimore Orioles (-225) vs. Colorado Rockies
Maybe a surprise at the top of the projections, Jack Flaherty is a top-end option Sunday for tournament lineups. On the season, he is 7-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 20 starts.
August has been rough so far for Flaherty, with a 1-2 record and 7.07 ERA since joining the Orioles.
Away from Coors Field, the Rockies have far less firepower. Four Rockies bats have strikeout rates above 29.7% against righties, and they have one of the lowest implied totals on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies have scored 19 runs in the first two games of their series with the Cardinals. On Sunday, they go for the sweep against Drew Rom, a 23-year-old lefty making his second big-league start. Rom allowed six earned runs in 3.2 innings in his big league debut against the Pirates.
Bryce Harper leads the stack with a +6.87 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has five-straight multi-hit games with three home runs and nine RBI in that span.
Second in salary in the stack is the ultimate boom-or-bust option Kyle Schwarber. He leads the National League in strikeouts for the second season in a row and is currently third in the NL with 35 home runs.
Despite a rough season, Trea Turner has fared well in August, batting .301/.343/.548. He has three straight games with double-digit DraftKings points in each.
J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos round out the stack. Realmuto has two 20+ DraftKings games in August, but he has four straight negative Plus/Minus games. Castellanos has a high strikeout rate with an improved .290/.294/.590 batting line in August.
You can also target Greene in his return to the mound by taking the under on his strikeouts prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Andrew Benintendi OF ($3,600 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (Paul Blackburn)
Andrew Benintendi has turned it on lately for Chicago with five positive Plus/Minus games in the last seven games. Three of his five home runs on the season have come in that span.
On the season, Benintendi is batting .276/.341/.374 with 38 RBI and 13 stolen bases. His ceiling is normally capped, but the recent power streak may still provide bargain potential.
The White Sox take on Paul Blackburn for the lowly Athletics on Sunday. Blackburn is 3-3 with any even 4.00 ERA in 14 starts this season.
Bo Bichette SS ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians (Noah Syndergaard)
Currently second in the American League in batting, Bo Bichette continues to impress for Toronto. On the season, he is batting .316/.346/.491 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI.
Bichette returned to the lineup on August 19. In seven games, he has one home run and two multi-hit games.
The Blue Jays face Guardians righty Noah Syndergaard. In 12 starts this season, Syndergaard is 1-4 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
Since returning to the Padres in 2023, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a consistent producer at the plate, but he’s well below his elite 2021 numbers. He is batting .263/.325/.461 with 20 home runs and 66 RBI.
He is capable of boom games at any point with three 20+ DraftKings games so far in August. Tatis Jr. ranks in the top 6% of hitters with a .539 xSLG.
Adrian Houser starts for Milwaukee against Tatis Jr. and the Padres today. Houser is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the season.
