Here’s the breakdown for one-game Showdown contests for Week 2 of Sunday Night Football featuring the Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons at 8:20 p.m. on NBC.
Cash Game Roster Construction
Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan are projected within a tenth of a point of each other in our DK Showdown Models. Both Wentz and Ryan have higher median projections than the more expensive Julio Jones. Both passers fit along with Devonta Freeman and the Eagles three-headed backfield of Miles Sanders, Darren Sproles, and Jordan Howard.
Here’s how the Eagles backfield usage broke down in last week’s 32-27 win over the Redskins:
- Miles Sanders: 49% snaps, 12 touches, 1 inside 10
- Darren Sproles: 30% snaps, 12 touches, 1 inside 10 (2-point conversion rush)
- Jordan Howard: 23% snaps, 8 touches, 2 inside 10
The most perplexing thing about the whole situation was that Howard played more pass snaps (10) than run snaps (7), and Sproles played more run snaps (14) than pass snaps (8). The good news is that they all fit in the same lineup, and the Falcons have led the league in receptions allowed to running backs in all four years under Dan Quinn.
Ryan and Wentz’s projections are so close that you can split exposure between both in the 1.5x spot, but if forced to choose, I’d lean Ryan at home, as he put up 26.0 DraftKings points per game in Atlanta last season (+8.6 average Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency)
On FanDuel, you can fit Ryan-Wentz-Freeman plus two of the three Philly backs. Sanders has the top median projection, and Sproles edges Howard by a tenth of a point. Given how the usage broke down last week, Sanders-Sproles is the top combo, but if you’re investing heavily into the slate you probably want to hedge with Howard in some percentage of lineups.
Core GPP Plays
WR Julio Jones, Falcons: Here are Julio’s last five stat lines against the Eagles: 10-169-0 (2018), 9-101-0 (2017 playoffs), 10-135-0 (2016), 9-141-2 (2015), 5-123-1 (2012).
RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons: Per our NFL Trends tool, Freeman is averaging 23.3 DraftKings points, a +7.3 Plus/Minus, and 89% Consistency in home games with an over/under of 50-plus since 2016.
WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Ranked 10th in the league in air yards and dropped a 8-154-2 line on 10 targets in his first game as an Eagle. The VIkings only attempted 10 passes last week, but Atlanta graded out eighth in the league in coverage on those snaps.
WR Alshon Jeffery, Eagles: Averaging 7.8 targets and 0.58 TDs per game with Carson Wentz vs. 5.3, 0.33 without Wentz since 2017.
Falcons positive correlations: Ryan-Julio +0.68, Ryan-Ridley +0.57, QB-Opposing QB +0.52, Sanu-Ridley +0.30
Falcons negative correlations: Julio-Hooper -0.25
Eagles positive correlations: Ertz-Sproles +0.85, Wentz-Agholor +0.70, Wentz-Eagles D/ST +0.59, Ertz-Agholor +0.59, Sproles-Agholor +0.51, Wentz-Elliott +0.47, Wentz-Ertz +0.39, Wentz-Jeffery +0.33,
Eagles negative correlations: Ertz-Jeffery -0.38
The main takeaways: Beware the Julio-Hooper combo (the Eagles generally pose a tough matchup for opposing tight ends and ranked No. 7 in DVOA against the position a year ago) and the Jeffery-Ertz combo. Also, Eagles underneath players (RBs, TEs, slot WR) tend to be correlated.
RBs Miles Sanders/Darren Sproles/Jordan Howard, Eagles: In four meetings with the Falcons in the Dan Quinn era (the last three of which came under Doug Pederson), the Eagles’ highest scoring fantasy player has been a RB. Zach Ertz‘s high in those four meetings is 11.5 DraftKing points in 2016, and he’s been in the single digits the other three times.
RB Ito Smith, Falcons: Outsnapped Freeman 38-36 last week and could do so again if the Falcons end up falling behind.
WRs Calvin Ridley & Mohamed Sanu, Falcons: Both are positively correlated (+0.30), are cheaper than Julio, and have a better matchup than Hooper.
K Matt Bryant, Falcons & K Jake Elliott, Eagles: Both are top-five in Projected Plus/Minus and are solid lineup fillers capable of connecting from distance indoors.
- TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles: Played 55% of the snaps last week and is the top value outside the two QBs in our DK Showdown Models.
- WR Nelson Agholor, Eagles: Has the top Projected Plus/Minus among WRs and was tied for second on the team with 31 routes run last week, just as many as Ertz and D-Jax.
- WR Justin Hardy, Falcons: Clocks in at No. 2 in projected points per dollar in our DK Showdown Models. His 16 routes last week were the most among Falcons non-regulars, edging Luke Stocker (11), Russell Gage (16), Jaeden Graham (3), and Keith Smith (1).