- The Farmers Insurance Open will be underway this Wednesday in California.
- Justin Bailey takes a data-driven approach on the three golfers he's building around for single-entry tournaments.
- Strokes Gained data and the FantasyLabs Player Models and tools are the foundation of his analysis.
The PGA TOUR has the Farmers Insurance Open up next. Matt Vincenzi already did the heavy lifting on what metrics he thinks matters most, so we can dive right in.
There are many variables when it comes to DFS, so I tend to take a minimalistic approach to how I approach this game, no matter what sport I am playing. I recently made the jump as a cash game grinder for the last six years to strictly playing GPP only.
Similar to my approach for NFL DFS — I stick to small-field single-entry tournaments — I make one team every week that I enter into every tournament. (I’ll still throw my lineup into some large-field tournaments because I have FOMO.)
There are a lot more losing weeks when you play with just one lineup and are a GPP only player, but the spike weeks make it worth it. Honestly, I enjoy the max variance.
Anyway, this article will focus on the three golfers I plan to build my lineup around for the upcoming week.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,500 DraftKings)
At the time of writing, we don’t have Ownership Projections yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scheffler as one of the lower rostered players in this price range on Fanshare (available in our marketplace). I’d imagine most DFS players will lean towards Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, and Bryson DeChambeau.
Torrey Pines will be a fun challenge for these golfers because of its length and narrow fairways. In fact, the fairways are nearly seven yards narrower than the average PGA TOUR course. Fortunately, Scheffler is long and accurate. He’s one of six golfers in the field who has averaged over 305 yards off-the-tee while hitting at least 60% of fairways over the past 75 weeks, per our PGA Models.
Per @DataGolf, Torrey Pines South has the second-highest average yardage for par 4s/5s.
No surprise that 55% of approach shots come from beyond 175+ yards: pic.twitter.com/V8GaJKEFJx
— Justin Bailey (@justinbailey32) January 25, 2022
Finau and Scheffler both have the same Long-Term Adjusted Round (LT Adj Rd Score) at 69.2, the seventh-best mark in the field. Additionally, Scheffler ranks 14th in Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 50 rounds (Finau is 24th).
So in tournaments, it’s hard to justify likely substantially higher rostership for Finau compared to Scheffler when they have comparable metrics. At least, I’d expect that to be the case, given Finau’s course history at Torrey Pines.
Depending on your roster construction, it’s still possible to roster Scheffler with one of the guys above $10,000.