DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for North Wilkesboro: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Window World 450

NASCAR heads to the 0.625-mile short track at North Wilkesboro for the first points-paying race at the track in two decades.

Because of weather, there was one 50-minute practice session where all teams and drivers were allowed two sets of tires, so my practice FLAGS will be a great starting point for gauging performance this weekend.

In addition, we do have some track history with the All-Star race being run at this track in 2024 and 2025, plus some similar track comps at Martinsville and Phoenix earlier this year.

All that together should give us a good idea who will be strong, so be sure to check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro Speedway.

Window World 450 Cash Game Picks

Christopher Bell ($10,200): Bell looks like the elite play from practice, having led all the consecutive lap averages of 10 laps or more in practice.

That puts him in a virtual tie with Kyle Larson for tops in practice FLAGS, but Bell clearly has the nod at this track type as the dominant car at Phoenix and the defending All-Star race winner at this track.

Alex Bowman ($7000): The driver who finished fourth in the All-Star race last year rolls off 25th thanks to the qualifying washout, but he practiced inside the top eight in both FLAGS metrics.

Bowman was clearly fast over the long run, ranking third in 20-30-lap averages.

Riley Herbst ($5800): Herbst has continued his sneaky second half of the season with a solid practice run where he ranked seventh in speed-based and fourth in rank-based FLAGS in practice.

Because of the qualifying washout, Herbst will have to start from the 34th place position thanks to the metric, which does put him in danger of going a lap down early. But if he has the speed he did in practice, he may be able to put enough cars between himself and the leader to avoid getting lapped early.

Either way, by rolling off 34th, his floor is elevated significantly by protecting him from negative place differential.

He’s a solid play in all formats, and he’s a great salary relief option on a slate where you could consider multiple drivers over $10k in your lineups.

Windo World 450 Tournament Picks

Dominators: Here are my top dominators by likelihood of dominating:

1. Christopher Bell
2. Ryan Blaney
   
   (gap to show tier)
   
3. Ty Gibbs
4. Denny Hamlin

Just a note about the dominators: there likely will be others through strategy or cycle shakeups, but these four clearly separate them from a host of other drivers who would all be secondary or tertiary dominators at best.

Joey Logano ($9500): Logano rolls off 11th and didn’t look amazing in practice on the speed chart, but I don’t need him to after winning the 2024 All-Star Race and finishing runner-up last year.

Logano made an 80-lap run in practice, but what’s telling is that Bell, the consensus best car, ran his last sub-19-second lap on lap 42. Logano’s came at lap 38, just four laps earlier, so it’s not like he was far off of Bell.

Chris Buescher ($8500): I’m kind of taking a stab here on Buescher, who had some interesting things going for him in practice.

Buescher ran a 19-flat lap on lap 68 in practice, which was around his 65th lap on tires (he had a couple pit laps and a slow out lap).

That’s some incredible pace over the long run, and if that’s how this race ends, Buescher could pull off a top-five finish if his car behaves that well over 60-plus laps.

Ross Chastain ($8100): This is the ultimate boom-or-bust play here, so don’t go crazy on Chastain, but I do think I want to be overweight on him if the field is going to write him off for his pass-through penalty at the start of the race.

Chastain said the penalty his team was assessed for failing inspection three times won’t matter if the car is fast, and I believe him. We’ve seen several other times a driver get penalized early but come back over a long race to finish where they should on speed, and Chastain had plenty of speed.

He ranked first in five-lap average, but because he came in a handful of times, his 15-lap average came on older tires and his 10-lap average isn’t really usable from a slow out lap.

Remember, Chastain was third in the All-Star race here last year and ranked 10th in FLAGS at Phoenix.

This is a massive risk playing Chastain, but it could have massive reward.

Place Differential: When I look at place differential, I always look at two things. First, the salary of the driver being the most important.

If I’m trying to fit a Kyle Larson into my lineup, that’s going to cost me $10,500, but it’s far less likely he grabs dominator points, so he’ll really need to end up inside the top three or so to be worth it. My model gives that a 21.6% chance of happening, and he’s in the low 30’s in Perfect% because there’s another handful of times he leads laps through a cycle and finishes well enough (like top eight or so) to end up optimal.

On the other hand, I could use a short-flat track ace like Josh Berry who is just $7100 and, while he doesn’t quite have the same upside as Larson, he doesn’t need it when he’s $3400 cheaper.

The second thing I look at is the predictability of the track. More predictable races lead to higher confidence in a chalk place-differential play, while lower predictable races lead to place-differential plays being more surprising.

Over the two All-Star races here, which make up 450 laps, there were five cautions for incident for about a 14% incident rate.

That’s right in the middle, and with strategy possible thanks to the importance of track position, I do think we’ll see some order shakeup at various points.

That means I’m looking to go a little contrarian on cheaper place-differential plays, so here are a few drivers to keep in mind on that front:

1. Connor Zilisch: He’s burned us several times, but he ranked in the top half in practice FLAGS
2. Noah Gragson: Ran both All-Star races here and finished mid-pack in each
3. Austin Hill: Starts 33rd, was just barely outside the top half in practice FLAGS
4. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Ran both All-Star races, was top half in practice FLAGS
5. Cole Custer: Top half in practice FLAGS

I’m not saying all these drivers will do well. In fact, most of them won’t. But it’s likely one of these drivers finds their way into the optimal with Bell and Blaney likely to dominate with 450 laps, leaving a ton of dominator points out there. That means you need to nail the salary relief, so go a touch overweight on these guys as my cheap contrarian favorites.

Pictured: Christopher Bell
Photo credit: Randy Sartin