DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for EchoPark: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Quaker State 400

EchoPark Speedway is the first track the NASCAR Cup Series heads to for the second time on the year.

As a drafting track, there is a huge amount of variance, with some races here literally being totally random, while others have up to about 25% of the variance in the finishing order predicted by pre-race data, leaving 75% unexplained by any normal factors.

Even 25% predictability is still quite low and would put it below all other ovals and road courses. When variance is the name of the game, we rely on two things:

1. Ownership leverage
2. Place differential

Because even in the 25% predictable races, it still means there are about 30-35 cars that can finish almost anywhere in the 38-car field, all the way from first to 38th.

EchoPark does pose a unique quirk among drafting track races in that a dominator can be viable, given that there are 260 laps instead of, at most, 200 at all other drafting-track races, and the dominator often finishes near the front.

Finally, EchoPark has been very Jekyll-and-Hyde-like in its nine races under the current configuration. Three races have had in the neighborhood of 25% predictability, three hovered at 0%, and three were in between.

That means if you’re max entering, I’d suggest two sets of builds. One for total chaos and one with a bit (but not a ton) more predictability in mind.

In the chaos set, forget about dominators; treat it like a pure superspeedway lineup build where place differential and finishing position, leveraged against projected ownership, are the centers of the universe.

In the other set, you can target at most one dominator per lineup, drastically reduce your usage of the bottom-tier cars, and focus a bit more on who you think will have solid finishes. That said, place differential will still be king in these lineups, but it won’t necessarily be your only thought.

As always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Quaker State 400 at EchoPark Speedway.

Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

There are a few specific drivers I want to be intentionally overweight on.

Noah Gragson ($5400): The driver starting deepest in the field among the chartered cars is Gragson, who has had a miserable year.

Gragson might be on his way out at Front Row Motorsports, but that shouldn’t impact his performance at a drafting track. Gragson has performed well in the draft, especially at the bigger superspeedways, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push forward here at EchoPark knowing this is one of his best shots at a good result.

Cole Custer ($5100): Like Gragson, Custer has had some strong results at the bigger drafting tracks of Talladega and Daytona, but there’s no reason he couldn’t perform well this weekend either.

At the very back of the field, I expect people to gravitate more toward Zane Smith and Austin Hill of the drivers under $7k instead of Custer, but with the draft the great equalizer and a 35% rate of drivers finishing off the lead lap here thanks to incidents, there’s still a solid chance Custer makes up a lot of place differential to end up in the optimal lineup.

AJ Allmendinger ($5900): I love Allmendinger at drafting tracks, and knowing he’s got a spot in the playoffs on the line with a good finish, he should be pushing toward the front for stage points if possible.

That might help him avoid a major incident, which he has done in all five of his EchoPark starts. That’s led to an average finish of 11.4, with no finish worse than 16th. A few spots better than his average finish could very well put him in position to be in the optimal lineup, since he starts 27th, where he’d stand to gain nearly 20 points of place differential or more.

Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Leans

Since nearly every driver is in play, a “lean” for me in this context will be a driver I like being slightly overweight on compared to the field.

For most of these, you can just directly compare Perfect% to projected ownership, and that’ll work so drivers like Ryan Preece and Michael McDowell would fit the bill here.

Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Dominators

Remember, thanks to the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the races here, in about 50% of your lineups you shouldn’t worry about a dominator, and then in the other 50% of your lineups you should have 0-1 dominators.

Drivers starting outside the top third of the field don’t count as a dominator (even if they dominate) because they are viable as place-differential plays anyway. So inside those first five or six rows, the only dominators I’d worry about, in order of preference (with starting position in parentheses), are:

1. Joey Logano (2)
2. Ryan Blaney (1)
3. Kyle Larson (3)
4. Chase Elliott (7)
5. Austin Cindric (8)
6. Brad Keselowski (10)

As a reminder, earlier this year there was no true dominator, but Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace led between 45 and 55 laps while two other drivers led over 20 laps.

That’s why I say make sure you plan for this kind of scenario by essentially not worrying about dominators in around half your lineups.

Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week!

Josh Berry is this week’s PMPOTW with a projected ownership around 5-6%. I have Berry at 10.2% optimal.

Berry has been solid at EchoPark, leading 52 laps in the first EchoPark race last year before ultimately getting caught up in the mess and finishing a lap down.

Berry was the first car out of the first EchoPark race this year, and he is going to be leaving his Wood Brothers Racing team at the end of the season, which should keep people off of him. But he has the upside to finish inside the top five here.

Quaker State 400 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

Instead of picks, I’ll say the same thing I do for every drafting track. Roster drivers with great equipment who have a lower chance of encountering issues, starting in the back.

Pictured: Noah Gragson
Photo credit: Jim Dedmon