New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS) is the site of Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter 301 (3:00 p.m. ET, USA).
NMHS is a one-mile flat track, and with three races already this year on flat tracks within +/- 0.25 miles distance of NHMS, we have a nice sample size to work with to analyze this race. Even better, all three races used the same tire combination that teams are using this weekend.
Add in track history, and 20 minutes of practice, and there’s no shortage of data to help us.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
With that said, let’s dive into today’s NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for the Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire.
Ambetter 301 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Kyle Busch ($11,000): Rowdy’s price tag is quite expensive, but there are plenty of reasons to still use him in cash games.
First, he was the fastest car in practice over 10-plus laps. Second, his 17th-place starting position means he’ll be charging forward.
Busch should be one of the race favorites, and will grab plenty of fastest laps and place differential points in addition to a strong finish if his practice times translate to the race.
Chase Briscoe ($8400): Briscoe had a fast car in practice, but unfortunately for him put a slow lap down in qualifying. That poor lap relegates him to a 29th-place starting spot.
There’s a ton of safety in a fast car starting near the back. He’ll pick up plenty of place differential spots if he avoids trouble. New Hampshire is typically a low-attrition track.
Harrison Burton ($5200): Burton is mega value here. He starts 31st but posted a top-10 time in practice over 10 consecutive laps. He should move forward on speed at an exceptionally low price tag.
Ambetter 301 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Kevin Harvick ($8800): Harvick will start 10th, but he has a better car than that. He simply missed it on his second-round qualifying lap.
Harvick was very consistent in practice, clocking a 15-lap average faster than his 10-lap average. That’s excellent long-run speed.
New Hampshire is also a great track for him. He has three wins in his last seven incident-free races at the track. Every single one of those finishes were also in the top six.
With Martin Truex, Jr. and the incredibly hot Chase Elliott making up the front row and drawing added usage, plus drivers like Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain qualifying farther back, Harvick will not be in as many lineups as he should be.
Chris Buescher ($6100): Buescher’s 10-lap time is misleading, and if DFS players look at that they will fade him. He also has a poor track history, so he could be much lower owned than he should be.
Instead, let’s look at Buescher’s five-lap average, which was eighth best. Additionally, while he may have a poor history at New Hampshire, that shouldn’t stop him from moving forward.
Per his own tweet, Buescher has shown that this year he’s bucked the past trends of struggling at the shorter flat tracks. A top-10 is within reach for him today.