The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to La Quinta, California, this week as the PGA West Stadium Course hosts the American Express. There will actually be three courses in play this week. In addition to the Stadium Course, golfers will play one round each on the La Quinta and Nicklaus Tournament courses. All three are short par-72s, each measuring at about 7,100 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The AMEX is a pro-am with a 54-hole cut, meaning we get three-full rounds from all of our golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Jon Rahm ($11,200 DraftKings)
With this being a 54-hole cut event and our golfers getting a full three rounds in, it allows us to take a bit more risk than usual, specifically in cash games. This means it makes it that much more important to fit the No. 1 player in the world onto our rosters this week.
Just to give you a glimpse into the Spaniard’s dominance, Rahm, over his past 24 rounds in this field, ranks No. 1 in SG: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, Approach, Ball-Striking, Putting, Short-Game, and Total Strokes. That is a truly absurd statistic and just shows how much better he is than the rest of this field. I love Patrick Cantlay this week as well. However, for just $400 more on DraftKings, I will be most certainly paying up for Rahm.
It took Cam Smith shooting a PGA TOUR record 34-under par to outlast Rahm at the Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks back. That’s just what it takes to be the world’s No. 1 these days. I normally do not love paying all the way up in cash games. However, this week is an exception as Rahm is simply too good to fade. If you need any more convincing, Rahm won this event back in 2018. It is very unlikely he finishes outside the top 10 this week, so just lock him and move on.
Abraham Ancer ($9,200 DraftKings)
Honest Abe, for whatever reason, does not play well at the Sony, so we can throw last week’s results out the window. Back in a familiar location, I expect Ancer to fully bounce back this week at the AMEX. He’s gone T-5, 2nd, T-18 in each of his past three trips to La Quinta, and his price on DraftKings is sitting at a very palatable $9,200. He can be played on teams with Rahm if you feel like going stars and scrubs, as well.
He did not have a great fall swing, but he’s simply too good of a ball-striker to continue this subpar play. We should be expecting a top 25 in this spot most of the time, with massive upside beyond that if Ancer gets the flat stick going. He’s a rock-solid cash game play.
Si Woo Kim ($8,300 DraftKings)
The defending champ is being disrespected by DraftKings this week as he’s priced below the likes of Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose, both of whom have done next to nothing over the past calendar year. Kim had a really strong fall swing, posting three top-18 finishes at the Sanderson Farms, Fortinet, and ZOZO.
Some still may not know this, but Kim is the premier Pete Dye specialist on TOUR. For whatever reason, the man just knows how to get around a Dye design, evidenced best by his win at THE PLAYERS back in 2017. In addition to last year’s win here, Kim posted a T-9 at this event back in 2016. He has not been putting well lately, but a made cut is a reasonable expectation here, and at his price tag, that certainly should be enough.
Value Plays
Brian Harman ($7,900 DraftKings)
Harman has not been playing great golf of late, but he has been making cuts, and now he’s coming back to a place he loves. Since 2016, the Georgia Bulldog has finished inside the top 21 in five of six tries, including a T-8 and T-3 in that stretch. It isn’t entirely surprising as this event features three courses under 7,200 yards which is right up Harman’s alley as his lack of distance off the tee does not hurt him.
Harman can score when his putter gets hot, and he is one of the better Bermuda putters in this field. There is not a ton to like in the $8,000 range this week, so this is the range we should look to hammer in cash games.
Adam Hadwin ($7,900 DraftKings)
Hadwin has the best course history of anybody in this field, and it’s really not close. He’s never won the event, but he went T-6, 2nd, T-3, T-2 in a four year stretch from 2016-2019. He is very much like Brian Harman in that he’s not long off the tee but very strong with the putter. That seems to be a common theme this week of players who’ve had success here.
Hadwin has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard of late, but he did make four consecutive cuts to end the fall swing, which included a T-6 at the Shriner’s. He’s likely to continue his made-cut streak here and is priced very reasonably at just $7,900.
Chris Kirk ($7,800 DraftKings)
Kirk is another Pete Dye specialist, as he’s played extremely well in his career at TPC Sawgrass, just like Si Woo Kim. He’s also had plenty of success in desert-style courses as well. Kirk has been somewhat of a mixed bag at this event but has finished inside the top 21 in two of his past four trips.
He’s been playing pretty solid golf recently, finishing 14th at the CJ Cup and then last week with a T-27 at Waialae. Another short hitter who relies on his short-to-mid range irons and a strong short game, Kirk sets up well again this week and is a great value option in all formats.
Taylor Moore ($7,300 DraftKings)
Most people do not realize how good Taylor Moore is at golf. He will most assuredly be in the running for rookie of the year in 2022, as I expect him to have a monster season. In his final five starts on the Korn Ferry Tour before being promoted, Moore went WIN, 2nd, MC, T-10, T-10. During his brief stint on TOUR, he’s already posted three top 25s which include a T-8 his last time out at the RSM.
He can score like crazy, and this even should suit him extremely well. He will most certainly not be priced in the low $7,000 range on DraftKings for much longer, so we need to take full advantage this week.
