- The first day of the NFL Playoffs wraps up with a divisional matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills
- Who should be in the Captain slot for your DFS team?
- Matt LaMarca breaks down the relevant DFS options using the FantasyLabs Tools, Projections, and Player Models.
Saturday’s NFL slate wraps up with a matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Josh Allen is the most expensive player in this contest, and no one on either of these squads can really match his upside. His ceiling projection is the top mark in our NFL Models by more than 10 points, and only two players are within even 15. He possesses an elite dual-threat skill set, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points in bunches with both his arm and his legs.
Allen also enters this contest in excellent recent form. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including two games with at least 33.96 DraftKings points. One of those came against the Patriots, who he torched for 314 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and three passing touchdowns.
Still, there are some concerns with Allen on this slate. Despite his previous success vs. the Patriots, they remain one of the toughest possible matchups for opposing QBs. They rank third in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Allen’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.6 is the worst mark on the slate.
The weather is an even larger concern. Allen struggled mightily in his first game vs. the Patriots this season, which was played in gale-force winds. Tonight’s contest isn’t expected to be that windy, but it will be freezing cold. The current forecast has the temperature at four degrees during game time, and it’s going to feel like it’s below zero with the wind chill. Allen has played in just two games below 27 degrees, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.06 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
It is worth noting that Allen scored at least 21.8 DraftKings points in each of those games. While that isn’t quite enough to pay off his steep price tag, that would still put him in contention to be the highest scoring player on the slate. Overall, the weather and matchup are not enough to scare me off Allen.