In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (53 total)
Patrick Mahomes had a career year in 2022-2023, throwing for career highs in passing yardage at 5,250 and having the highest completion percentage of his career. He’s likely a shoo-in for his second MVP and got a nice week off as Kansas City prepares to host the Jaguars.
He was stellar against Jacksonville when these teams played in Week 10. He completed 74.3% of his passes, throwing for 331 yards on 9.5 yards per attempt. He threw four touchdowns to one interception and ran for another 39 yards on the ground. His 35.14 DraftKings points notched his fourth-highest total of the season.
Jacksonville has given up the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, which is even less impressive when you look at the slate of quarterbacks they’ve matched up against. They’ve struggled mightily but have played the likes of Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, Josh Dobbs, Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill.
Where Jacksonville had a little bit of success in the first matchup was when they could get pressure on Mahomes. The Jaguars are third in the league in pressure rate, and they pressured Mahomes on about a third of his dropbacks despite only sending extra rushers twice. Under pressure, Mahomes completed six of 10 passes for 72 yards and an interception. When facing no pressure, Mahomes threw for 10.4 yards per attempt and completed 80% of his passes.
Mahomes is potentially the safest bet of the weekend, which is why he leads our Cash Game Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Josh Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
Josh Allen had a solid performance last week, but it wasn’t up to standards with the “Mr. January” nickname that some of the media is (for some reason) giving him. He completed 59% of his passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns while throwing two interceptions. He also put the ball on the ground three times, with Miami recovering one fumble and returning it for a touchdown.
The matchup certainly isn’t easy, as Cincinnati has allowed a league-low completion rate and a bottom-five touchdown rate despite having defensive starters in and out of the lineup. Cincinnati has played an easy slate of opposing signal callers, but they did limit Patrick Mahomes to just 223 yards and one touchdown through the air.
Buffalo will likely let it loose this weekend, as even last week’s matchup as a double-digit favorite called for them to save some of their best looks. Allen will likely be used more as a designed runner, which we saw a bunch of in last year’s playoffs.
Allen is second in the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Ceiling projection. He’s the top quarterback in our Tournament Model and Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) vs. New York Giants (48 total)
The bye was much needed for Jalen Hurts, as he missed Weeks 16-17 with a shoulder injury and didn’t look like himself in the season finale against the Giants. He threw for 229 yards, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt to close the year. The first matchup against the Giants was a very different story, as Hurts threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns while running for 77 yards and a touchdown for 30.38 DraftKings points in a 48-22 rout.
It’ll be interesting to see how Hurts looks with his shoulder, but if he’s healthy, he’s a great play. The Eagles have the second-highest implied team total on the weekend and Hurts drives this offense. The Giants switched up their approach against the Vikings last week, altering their blitz rates from the first matchup.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Giants adjust this week, but if Hurts is healthy, it likely won’t matter.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (53 total)
I was between Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow for this last spot, but Lawrence looks slightly better, in my opinion. When building lineups around Joe Burrow and a shootout against the Bills, I simply prefer finding the salary and playing Josh Allen. Lawrence gets a matchup with a Chiefs’ defense that is allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Lawrence was solid against Kansas City in the first matchup, completing 72.5% of his passes en route to 20.96 DraftKings points.
He was heading towards a horrendous playoff debut last week, but Lawrence and the Jaguars persevered and climbed out of a 27-0 hole. He threw four interceptions in his first 18 passes before completing 23 of 29 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns to finish the game. Jacksonville isn’t afraid to be bold, and they’ll likely chuck it early and often as they know they need to score to beat Kansas City.