NFL Week 7 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Russell Wilson at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,200 as opposed to $12,800.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
This game was originally scheduled for the afternoon slate, but the NFL moved it to Sunday night given the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders following a positive COVID-19 test. While the circumstances for the move obviously aren’t ideal, NFL fans should be thrilled this game is now in prime time. Both teams can put up points in bunches, and that is reflected in the 54.0 total.
Wilson is the most expensive player on the slate, and he has been an absolute monster from a fantasy perspective to start the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first five games this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.44 on DraftKings. The Seahawks have allowed Wilson to throw more to start the year, and it hasn’t impacted his elite efficiency numbers.
This matchup against the Cardinals is merely average for Wilson. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.1 on DraftKings, and Arizona currently ranks 10th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. Still, he leads all players in terms of ceiling projection in our NFL Models, which makes him a viable Captain choice on DraftKings.
Kyler Murray will be at the helm for the Cardinals’ offense, and he might be the better pure value. The Seahawks have been a disaster in pass coverage this season, giving Murray an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.5 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark on the slate.
Murray has also displayed an increased willingness to run in his second season, which has been a huge boost for his fantasy stock. He’s averaging 61.7 rushing yards per game — leading the league with an average of 7.3 yards per carry — and he’s also chipped in six rushing touchdowns. That gives him an average of more than 12 fantasy points per game before factoring in any passing numbers.
Murray is an underdog in this matchup, but he still owns the top projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
The biggest question mark heading into this contest is the availably of DeAndre Hopkins. He’s currently listed as questionable, but he does appear on track to play after getting in a limited practice on Friday.
The Seahawks should have absolutely no answer for him if he’s active. They have struggled against WRs all year, and they rank just 25th in DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs in particular. Hopkins has cooled down a bit after starting the year with 37 targets through his first three games, but he’s still one of the biggest target hogs in the NFL. He has arguably the highest ceiling among the non-QBs.
D.K. Metcalf has emerged as the Seahawks’ clear alpha WR. He’s coming off 11 targets in their last game, and Wilson leaned on him heavily during their game-winning touchdown drive. Wilson reportedly has a ton of confidence in Metcalf — he stated he wanted to be the Joe Montana to Metcalf’s Jerry Rice — and that was on full display against the Vikings.
That said, he does appear to be a bit pricy this week. He doesn’t stand out from a ceiling perspective when compared to the other high-priced options, and he’s not nearly as good of a value as some of the cheaper targets. Maybe that will result in lower ownership than usual, but I’m fine with being underweight on him.
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Midrange
Chris Carson and Tyler Lockett headline this price range for the Seahawks.
Carson is coming off an uncharacteristically low eight carries last week against the Vikings, but he had a few different things working against him. He was dealing with an MCL injury heading into that game, which caused him to miss practice time during the week. The Seahawks also fell behind early, so it wasn’t a great game script for him either.
That said, Carson has been much more involved as a pass-catcher this season, so he was still able to salvage his fantasy value. His seven targets in that game trailed Metcalf’s mark of 11, and he was also able to find the end zone. That combination of receiving and touchdown upside makes him a very appealing fantasy running back, and he should hopefully be healthier following Seattle’s bye in Week 6.
Lockett took a backseat to Metcalf last week, but he remains the 1B to Metcalf’s 1A. He’s already had a game with 40.0 DraftKings points this season, so he has the ability to crush his current price tag.
Lockett also owns a correlation of +0.68 with Wilson and +0.38 with Metcalf, so stacking all three players together looks like an excellent strategy. You can easily increase your exposure to Lockett’s teammates whenever he’s in your lineups using our updated multi-lineup tool:
Kenyan Drake is coming off a huge game for the Cardinals last week, finishing with 31.4 DraftKings points thanks to 164 rushing yards and two touchdowns. There was talk that he should lose his job to Chase Edmonds, so Drake needed that kind of performance in the worst way.
Still, that game looks like a clear outlier for Drake, who hasn’t eclipsed 13.2 DraftKings points in any other game this season. He also has failed to contribute in the passing game through his first six contests, which makes him a bit risky from a game script perspective. If this contest turns into a shootout, Drake could struggle to return value unless he makes multiple trips to the end zone for the second straight week.
Christian Kirk also found the end zone twice last week against the Cowboys. That said, his overall game log was much less encouraging than Drake’s. Those were his only two catches of the game, and he also finished with just three targets. I’m only rostering him as a part of larger Cardinals’ stacks.
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Values & Punts
This is the area that will decide today’s slate. There are so many high-priced studs available, and you’re going to want to jam as many of them into your lineups as possible. That means you’re going to need to take some shots on some cheaper players as well.
Let’s break down some of the top candidates in this price range rapid-fire style:
- Greg Olsen: $4,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — The Cardinals haven’t been nearly as bad against TEs as they were last season, but Olsen still has a path to fantasy relevance this week. He’s been a frequent red-zone target for Wilson and has logged at least six targets in two of his past three games.
- Larry Fitzgerald: $4,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Larry Legend doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, but he’s still a very appealing value option at $7,000 on FanDuel. He’s played on 79.7% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps this season, although that number did drop to just 61% in their last game. Still, that was likely due to the blowout nature of that contest, so I’m not overly concerned.
- Chase Edmonds: $4,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel — Edmonds is very cheap this week on DraftKings, and he’s the preferred Cardinals’ RB to build into larger stacks. He owns a correlation of +0.52 with Murray on DraftKings, thanks to his ability in the passing game.
- Kickers and Defenses — These options are always in play in the single-game format. That said, this doesn’t appear to be a particularly good week for them given the projected high-scoring game environment.
- Andy Isabella: $3,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel — Isabella is the clear No. 4 WR for the Cardinals with Kirk back in the lineup, but he still has some appeal as a punt play. He has the potential to get behind the defense for a long touchdown and pay off his salary in one play.
- Darrell Daniels: $2,400 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel — He’s priced at the minimum on FanDuel but has emerged as the Cardinals’ preferred option at the TE position. He played on 71% of their offensive snaps last week compared to just 42% for Dan Arnold.
- Will Dissly: $1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel — Dissly is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and has a strong connection was Wilson near the goal line. He had just one target in Week 5 against the Vikings but turned it into a 19-yard touchdown.
- Freddie Swain: $800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel — Swain played on 39% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps in their last contest, which was just slightly lower than David Moore’s mark of 43%. He’s also caught at least two passes in each of his past two games, and he doesn’t need to do much more than that to pay off his DraftKings salary.
