This article is one in a series that uses theFantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
NOTE: All statistics and Trends in this article are as of March 3, 2017.
The Toronto Maple Leafs selected Auston Matthews with the first overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft last summer. Since the first game of his NHL career — in which Matthews scored four goals — he has exceeded all expectations.
2016-2017 Rookie Season
As you can see, Matthews’ elite performance in the NHL has translated well to daily fantasy sports. A +3.83 Plus/Minus on FanDuel is very good (relative to the league average +0.38 Plus/Minus), and on average he is outperforming his salary-adjusted expectations by almost 33 percent (per our Trends tool).
Home/Road
Throughout the early part of his NHL career, Matthews has been significantly better on the road. About two thirds of Matthews’ Plus/Minus production has come on the road, where he has a high 60 percent Consistency Rating (compared to his 48 percent at home).
Division
All the samples here are small, as Matthews has played only 64 NHL games, but it’s apparent that he has absolutely dominated his division. With a +6.3 Plus/Minus within the Atlantic Division, he is two to three times as productive (from a salary-adjusted perspective) within division as he is against any other division.
Top Performances
If we consider the six teams against which Matthews has had the most success, it is no surprise than three of them are in his own division, which he has dominated all season. He has no more than two games played against any other team on this list other than the Ottawa Senators, whom Matthews has played four times this season.
Most Frequent Opponents (3 or more)
There are only two teams outside of the Atlantic Division that Matthews has faced more than twice this season, both of which which are New York teams. He has been successful against the Islanders (+9.4 Plus/Minus) but has struggled against the Rangers (-5.2 Plus/Minus). The other five teams are in the Atlantic Division and, surprisingly (given their record) the Buffalo Sabres have caused the most trouble for Matthews. The Sabres are the only team within the division against whom Matthews has a negative Plus/Minus. Even then, it is relatively small at -1.0.
Vegas
You can check out our Vegas dashboard nightly, but looking at Matthews performance in the context of his favorite/underdog splits doesn’t offer much insight. Matthews has had more success as an underdog (+4.1 Plus/Minus) than a favorite (+3.5 Plus/Minus), but it’s important to note that coming into the season the Leafs were not expected to play nearly as well as they have, so the number of games in which they were underdogs (especially earlier in the season) is higher than we’d otherwise expect. On top of that, Matthews’ success on the road naturally dovetails with his success as an underdog.
While it’s important to note that Matthews as an underdog has been more productive in terms of raw and adjusted production, he’s actually been more consistent as a favorite. As a result, he might be better in cash games when favored and guaranteed prize pools when not.
Finding the Salary Sweet Spot
Matthews has had some intriguing variance in his FanDuel pricing and production. I’ve broken his games into three different salary ranges to offer consistency in sample size:
Matthews Salary: $7,400 – $7,900
Matthews Salary: $6,400 – $7,300
Matthews Salary: $4,500 – $6,300
Here’s some information on the three distinct ranges in which Matthews has been priced:
- $7,400 – $7,900: Where Matthews should be realistically priced based on his actual level of talent
- $6,400 – $7,300: Roughly where Matthews was priced in the middle of the actual season
- $4500 – $6300: Where Matthews was priced early in the season as well as during his 13-game
Naturally, the more expensive Matthews is, the less value he affords and the less consistently he affords it.
Correlations
After filtering out the players with fewer than 20 games, the following chart shows the players most correlated with Matthews.
As to be expected between two players typically together at even strength and on the power play, William Nylander and Matthews are strongly correlated. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest line changes using the our NHL Team Lines tool.
Compared to Other Top Rookies
Compared to other top rookies this season, Matthews has fared well:
Easily first in expected points, actual points, and Plus/Minus and second in Consistency, Matthews is the top of his rookie class.
Takeaways
Based on these stats, it’s apparent just how good Matthews has been as a 19-year-old rookie. It’s possible to roll him out in just about any matchup as one of the elite players in the league, as he’s arguably a matchup-proof DFS option. In cash games or tournaments, he can confidently be stacked with his linemates through our Lineup Builder in the Players Models, especially Nylander, with whom he shares an elite correlation.
Pro users can review ownership trends via our DFS Ownership Dashboard to see how sharper high-stakes DFS players utilize Matthews and his linemates. If they have similar ownership percentages in high-stakes contests, it’s likely that Matthews is being stacked with teammates in a relatively high percentage of contests.
