This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Very few players are generational talents. Even though he’s not as established as Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin, it’s possible the 19-year-old Connor McDavid — the youngest captain in NHL history — is such a talent. It doesn’t take long to realize this kid is special:
At the time of this writing McDavid leads the NHL in scoring.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are McDavid’s per-game averages since he entered the league in 2015 as the No. 1 overall pick.
Every night is point night for McDavid, but in comparison to someone like Brent Burns he has peripheral stats that are far from elite.
McDavid is one of the NHL’s top playmakers, but after a strong rookie season he hasn’t provided extraordinary value this season (per our Trends tool):
For context, here’s how the rest of the league’s power play (PP) centers have done over the past two seasons:
McDavid, at least from a Plus/Minus perspective, has been a roughly average DFS play in 2016-17.
Trends
Let’s dig deeper into Trends to find out why and when the league’s top scorer isn’t providing DFS value.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, centers typically provide more value and Consistency at home.
Surprisingly, McDavid has been considerably better on the road since he entered the league.
In 2016-17, his struggles at home are even more drastic:
You’ll notice that year over year McDavid has been a steady producer at home, so his decrease this year in Plus/Minus is purely due to a higher salary. On the road, however, his production has kept pace with his rising salary. In fact, the Edmonton Oilers as a whole have performed much better on the road than at home this season.
This data might be noisy, but to date McDavid has been substantially more profitable on the road, where he’s also probably had lower ownership.
Opposing Teams
Of McDavid’s most frequent opponents, the Ducks and Wild have given him the most trouble:
Of teams McDavid has faced more than once over the past two seasons, he has the strongest per-game average Plus/Minus values against the Maple Leafs and Stars.
Division Games
Typically, playing in division games has little impact on a (power play) center’s value:
McDavid on the other hand performs far better in non-division games:
For whatever reason, McDavid seems to perform his best in games that mean less for his team. From a DFS perspective, targeting him in non-division games has provided significant production in the past.
Here is how he does against each division as well:
That’s a pretty significant drop-off. The Pacific Division has historically given McDavid fits, although he still typically exceeds value everywhere else and smashes the Atlantic Division.
Vegas
Most centers perform better as Vegas favorites.
Although McDavid scores more raw points as a favorite, he provides significantly more value and is more consistent as an underdog:
With likely lower ownership as an underdog, McDavid once again provides value in what is a suboptimal situation for centers in general.
Salary Sweet Spot
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 15.85 FD points per game (PPG), we would expect McDavid to cost $8,800. His price has been $8,800 or above in 19.3 percent of games this season.
McDavid has averaged 15.58 FD PPG since Jan. 1 and would be expected to have a salary of $8,700 with that production. He’s failed to reach that salary threshold 60 percent of the time in that time frame.
DraftKings
Based on his 2016-17 average of 4.24 DK PPG, we would expect McDavid to cost $8,000. He’s been priced at $8,000 or more in 89.7 percent of games this season. It’s clear that on DK he’s been priced at a premium over the course of the season:
If McDavid is to be rostered, he’s generally better on FD than DK.
Stacking the Oilers
Here’s the average production for Edmonton players during McDavid’s 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
FanDuel
DraftKings
Goaltender Cam Talbot has typically provided the most average fantasy points in games in which McDavid has gone off. That’s not a surprise. When a stud skater does well, a team is usually likelier to win, thereby earning a victory bonus for the goalie.
McDavid’s Correlations tab (in our Player Models) more or less reflects the data we see above:
There are quite a few reasonably priced options here for stacking: Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, and Patrick Maroon have offered cheap stacking exposure to McDavid this season.
Conclusion
On the surface McDavid looks like a subpar option given his price and lack of peripheral stats. However, he does have significant reverse home/road, division/non-division, and favorite/underdog splits that can likely be leveraged in tournaments — especially on FD.
