The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features just two teams implied for 3.3 or more goals. Here are the high-priced options:
Center
- Connor McDavid @ New Jersey Devils: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $9,200
- Steven Stamkos @ Los Angeles: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,600
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov @ Los Angeles: DraftKings – $8,200, FanDuel – $8,900
- Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $8,300
- Patrick Kane @ Philadelphia: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,500
Defense
- Alex Pietrangelo vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $6,100
- Shea Weber vs. Minnesota: DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $5,700
The Oilers have scored two or fewer goals in four of their past five games, but McDavid leads the slate in Corsi-For over the past month, and the Devils have allowed 4.67 goals during their three-game losing streak. Edmonton’s 2.9 implied goal total (sixth-highest on the slate) could lead to McDavid going under-owned in this spot, regardless of his elite peripheral stats:
Stamkos and Kucherov have an unreal 0.72 correlation coefficient in our Models, and both players lead the slate in points per 60 minutes of ice time (pts/60) over the past month. The Lightning are on the latter half of a road back-to-back and the Kings present a tough test for this duo, allowing the fewest goals per game in the league this year. Still, expect this dynamic pairing to be massively owned tonight, as they proven to be productive in suboptimal situations.
If you’re fading some of the aforementioned studs, it could make a ton of sense to pay up for Tarasenko and Pietrangelo tonight. Both players rank in the 97th percentile or higher in shots + blocks and power play shots per game over the past month. The Blues’ 3.4 implied goals leads the slate, and they also own the top matchup expectation against a Coyotes team that’s allowing the second-most goals this year.
Weber’s price has risen $1,000 on DraftKings over the past month, but he is underpriced on FanDuel at $5,700 with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. His 5.92 shots + blocks per game leads the slate.
Values
Ben Hutton (DraftKings – $3,300, FanDuel – $3,600): Michael Del Zotto has been a staple value play for over a month – and he is still underpriced at $4,200 on both sites – but we discussed Hutton for an even cheaper price on Inside the Lab. Not only do his shots + blocks rank in the 86th percentile, but he also forms more favorable stacks with a Canucks’ power play unit that features Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, and Sven Baertschi.
Note: Keep an eye on our twitter feed @FantasyLabsNHL, as Alex Edler could return tonight and is a game-time decision. This could greatly impact Hutton’s value.
Andrew Shaw (DraftKings – $4,100, FanDuel – $3,400): Expected to skate on the top line and power play unit, Shaw is still the cheapest way to get exposure to Max Pacioretty and Shea Weber. Over the past month, Shaw ranks in the 86th percentile in shots + blocks per game and the 82nd percentile in points, and he owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel in tonight’s matchup.
One-Timers
Ivan Provorov (DraftKings – $5,200, FanDuel – $4,500): The Flyers are quietly in a great spot tonight hosting Chicago, who’s lost four of its last six games and is allowing the sixth-most shots on goal this year. The Blackhawks have been surrendered the seventh-most power play opportunities and Provorov should continue to see ice time on the second unit. He ranks in the 99th percentile in shots + blocks per game over the past month and offers elite peripheral stats at a discount on a nightly basis.
Brendan Gallagher (DraftKings – $4,700, FanDuel – $6,100): There could certainly be a strong correlation between fantasy points and dating former Bachelor contestants, but I’ll defer to FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales, who likely has a lot more data on the subject. In all seriousness, Gallagher has been on a tear lately, with seven points over his past six games. His 3.85 shots + blocks per game over the past month ranks in the top five among wingers playing tonight. His price is egregiously low on DraftKings, where he owns a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Notable Stacks
Unsurprisingly, one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Montreal Canadiens:
The Canadiens own the highest Corsi-For expectation of any team in the slate but are likely still underpriced because the team has scored the ninth-fewest goals. After registering zero points in the first five games of the season, Pacioretty now has nine points in his past eight games, and he ranks in the 99th percentile in shots, 99th percentile in power play shots and 97th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month. Minnesota is currently battling through some key injuries, allowing 3.5 goals per game over their past four, so this could be a prime goal-scoring progression spot for Montreal.
St. Louis rates highly on both sites, but it’s much easier to jam in a Blues stack on FanDuel:
The Blues are top-five in goals per game at home at this season, own the highest goal expectation (3.3) on the slate, and have a prime matchup against a Coyotes team with the most-favorable Corsi-Against (50.73) over the past month. Brayden Schenn has seven points in his last two games and boasts a 0.41 and 0.29 correlation coefficient with Pietrangelo and Jaden Schwartz, respectively.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, but the slate offers only one large favorite:
- St. Louis -235 vs. Arizona
- Calgary -157 vs. Detroit
- Montreal -143 vs. Minnesota
Carter Hutton will start for the Blues, but his peripheral stat ceiling could be limited even if he gets the win. St. Louis is a strong defensive team, allowing the eighth-fewest shots on goal and the second-fewest goals. Hutton should be a cash consideration, even though Arizona doesn’t shoot a ton (ninth-fewest in the NHL).
As the third-largest moneyline favorite, Charlie Lindgren (St. Cloud State University alumni) is back in play for tournaments facing his hometown Wild. With a 5-0-0 record in the NHL, Chuck has seen his price rise $1,000 on DraftKings after allowing just two goals over as many games this season. That said, Montreal has allowed the sixth-fewest shots this year and Lindgren owns the fifth-lowest save prediction on the slate.
Cory Schneider is expected to start for New Jersey and is an intriguing underdog to target today. Edmonton owns the second-highest Corsi-For expectation tonight, which is part of the reason Schneider has the highest save prediction on the slate (35.15).
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
