The PGA TOUR is just two weeks away from the end of the FedExCup Fall, which makes the stakes this week extremely high for players looking to improve their status for the 2027 season. After four weeks of international play, the PGA TOUR is back in the United States for the next two tournaments, beginning with this week’s inaugural Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions.
The event is a return to the Austin area for the PGA TOUR, which last visited for the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event. The return to the Texas Hill Country will take place at a new course for the PGA TOUR, as the Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa will make its debut on the big stage this week. For more information on this week’s field, format, and course, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field tournaments, you’ll want to target players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for tournament success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.
Since these are tournament picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for tournament play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Also available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Pick
Austin Smotherman $9,100
For the FedExCup Fall, we’ll focus on just one pick in each price range and list a few more standout plays at the bottom of each section. This week, Austin Smotherman stands out in the top tier, which has been left with some saturated ownership projections after the key withdrawals of Ben James and Michael Kim.
Smotherman has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field and comes at a very affordable price of just over $9,000. Since we don’t have course history for any players at this venue, we’ll lean more heavily into recent form, and Smotherman definitely has plenty of that!
He picked up his first PGA TOUR victory at the Bank of Utah Championship in his 100th career start. He took a few weeks off and returned for start No. 101, wasting no time claiming championship No. 2. In his very next appearance, Smotherman won the weather-delayed Butterfield Bermuda Championship in a Monday playoff over Seamus Power. Coming off back-to-back wins, he ranks No. 51 in the FedExCup Fall standings and is in a great spot to claim one of the Aon Next 10 spots and qualify for the Signature Events at the start of 2027.
While Smotherman is originally from California, he does have some local ties to Texas since he played his college golf at SMU in Dallas. His experience on Texas courses could help him this week, and the fact that the fairways and greens are Bermuda grass should also play to his strengths.
Smotherman has ranked third in the field in SG:T2G over the last three months, while also ranking third in Total Strokes Gained and seventh in SG:APP. The 32-year-old comes in red hot and will look to add a third straight win to his FedExCup Fall. Even if he doesn’t win, he has a great chance to be a good value and leverage play at his current salary and ownership projection.
Other High-Priced Picks from the Model: Andrew Novak ($9,600), Chris Kirk ($9,400)
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Pick
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