As anticipation mounts for the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills, we make one final pit stop at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, to play the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
Last year was the first time the tournament was held at TPC Craig Ranch. The prior two editions of the AT&T Byron Nelson were played at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard par 72 and features bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that certainly didn’t change last year with the new course. K.H. Lee won the event by shooting -25.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th set up like the stadium hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with driveable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and it’s a very strong collection of players. Some notable golfers in the field include Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Hideki Matsuyama.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, K.H. Lee was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $10,100 (5th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Adam Hadwin— $8,000 (3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: C.T. Pan— $7,300 (12th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there doesn’t appear to be too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
- High-end target: Will Zalatoris— $9,400 (2nd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
- Mid-range target: Cameron Champ— $8,000 (3rd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Value target: Tom Hoge — $7,300 (5th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Birdie or Better
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie makers.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler 10,900 (1st Birdie or Better)
- Mid-range target: Joaquin Niemann— $9,300 (2nd Birdie or Better)
- Value target: Kurt Kitayama— $7,400 (10th Birdie or Better)
Par 3s: 200+
Three of the four par 3s at TPC Craig Ranch measure over 200 yards (Hole 4: 219, Hole 7: 232, and Hole 15: 216).
This week, I will be looking for golfers who can play these difficult par 3s effectively and who have good proximity statistics on similar length holes.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth— $10,100 (10th Par 3: 200+)
- Mid-range target: Adam Hadwin— $8,000 (5th Par 3: 200+)
- Value target: Tom Hoge— $7,300 (1st Par 3: 200+)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on tour have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
- High-end target: Dustin Johnson — $10,200 (5th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Mid-range target: Jason Kokrak— $8,300 (1st in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Value target: Beau Hossler — $6,600 (4th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)