After a week in the Valley of the Sun, the PGA TOUR is back at the ocean for the first Signature Event of the season. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week and another Signature Event at the Genesis Invitational next week close out the West Coast Swing before the pros head to Florida. Chris Gotterup has already claimed a pair of victories this season and will be looking for a third as he joins an elite field led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and defending champion Rory McIlroy.
Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course host the event this week, with the 80 pros joined by 80 amateurs for the first two rounds, one on each course. The no-cut event finishes with Round 3 and Round 4 focused on just the professionals on Pebble Beach, which usually sets up picturesque, Pacific panoramas and fantastic finishes. For more on the field, format, courses, and what to look for from a statistical perspective this week, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Rory McIlroy $11,500
If you’re looking for lower ownership players with high upside, Rory fits those GPP ideals this week, and he saves $2,500 in salary compared to Scottie Scheffler, who is always a good play whenever he’s in the field, because he brings so much win equity. He looked much better after some rare stumbles in Round 1 last week, and he can definitely be the heart of a “stars & scrubs” lineup despite his high salary and ownership projection.
Rory matches more Pro Trends than Scheffler this week, leading the field by matching 11 Pro Trends. He has the second-shortest odds of winning and of finishing in the top 10, according to Vegas, and he has the second-highest Perfect% as well. He only has the fourth-highest ownership projection behind Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, and Chris Gotterup.
Last year, Rory started his PGA TOUR season with a win in his season debut at this event and will look to follow that pattern again this year. He went on to win three times on the PGA TOUR, including the victory here, a win at THE PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass, and his memorable Masters triumph.
After finishing just T23 in the TOUR Championship to end his season, he won the Amgen Irish Open on the DP World Tour in September and added top-three finishes at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and DP World Tour Championship in two of his four events after that win. In January, he finished third in the Dubai Invitational and T33 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour.
Rory had a shaky history at this venue before winning last year, but he’s proven that when he’s at his best, he can win just about anywhere. Because of the added risk of rolling with him in his first PGA TOUR appearance of the season, he comes at a lower ownership, but his ceiling makes him worth the risk for GPP contests as a pivot option.
Justin Rose $9,400
Rose has the highest SimLeverage in the field and is extremely affordable on DraftKings compared to other sites, as indicated by his 96% Bargain Rating. He has a top-10 Perfect% but an ownership projection under 10%, making him an excellent GPP contrarian play.
He’s a classic pay-up-for-leverage option this week since his salary has jumped from $7,500 to $9,400, causing many to balk at paying top salary for the 45-year-old veteran. On some courses, I might steer clear of him as well, but this tournament is a great fit for Rose’s skill set regardless of current form.
He took last week off after absolutely dominating the field at Torrey Pines, where he picked up the wire-to-wire win at the Farmers Insurance Open, winning by seven strokes. He ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach and first in GIR% for the week, as his seemingly ageless iron game continued to shine.
With the smallest greens of any regular PGA TOUR stop, Pebble Beach demands precision iron play as well, which is why Rose has fared well here over the years with three top-10 finishes in six appearances, including a win in 2023, a T11 in 2024, and a T3 last year behind Rory.
On a course that fits his game so well and has been a great spot for him in the past, and with so much momentum after his win two weeks ago, Rose brings lots of upside as a leverage play this week.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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