Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72 measuring 7,454 yards and features bermuda greens. Interestingly, the past five editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have yielded an international champion. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.
There are 123 golfers in the field this week at Bay Hill. This event usually attracts a very strong field but being that The PLAYERS Championship (March 10-13) is next week, some top players have chosen to sit this week out.
Even so, the field this week will feature some of the world’s best, including Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey, and Tommy Fleetwood.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $10,800 (2nd SG: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Paul Casey— $8,300 (4th SG: Approach)
- Value target: Andrew Putnam — $6,900 (9th SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important. We have seen some events of late where golfers can get away with bad tee shots, Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,400 (1st SG: OTT)
- Mid-range target: Keith Mitchell — $8,100 (5th SG: OTT)
- Value target: Taylor Moore — $6,800 (18th SG: OTT)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning)
A major reason why Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is due to the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces have played “lightning” fast in every round since 2017.
- High-end target: Matt Fitzpatrick — $9,200 (6th SG: Putting Bermuda and Lightning)
- Mid-range target: Christian Bezuidenhout — $7,700 (3rd SG: Putting Bermuda and Lightning)
- Value target: Brendon Todd — $6,900 (2nd SG: Putting Bermuda and Lightning)
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
While ball-striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week. It will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill this week.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $10,800 (4th SG: Ball Striking)
- Mid-range target: Paul Casey — $8,300 (5th SG: Ball Striking)
- Value target: Keegan Bradley — $7,300 (13th SG: Ball Striking)
Strokes Gained: Par 5
With four par 5s on the course, it will be important to take advantage of these holes. While I don’t expect the winning score to be quite as uninspiring as last year, it certainly won’t be a birdie fest.
Whoever takes the best advantage of the scoreable par 5s may have the best shot to win.
- High-end target: Matt Fitzpatrick— $9,200 (1st SG: Par 5)
- Mid-range target: Seamus Power— $7,600 (2nd SG: Par 5)
- Value target: Sam Ryder — $6,700 (5th SG: Par 5)