The Florida swing was set to start this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but it got jump started early with an impromptu debut trip to The Concession last week at the WGC Workday. It turned out to be a fantastic venue for a big tournament, as the best players in the world were challenged on every shot.
On the DFS side, you have to be nearly perfect to win the top prize in any limited field, no cut event. Last week’s winner of the $250,000 in the main DraftKings GPP, rocko118, was pretty close as they were able to solo ship the top prize by 3.5 points. The of course is first to have the winner in Collin Morikawa who came in under-owned at less than nine percent, as many were scared off after an ugly putting week at the Genesis Invitational.
They also had two of the players that tied for second in Hovland and Horschel, alongside the scoring of Bryson, Ancer, and Ooshuizen. In all, the lineup had a naturally higher ownership of nearly 90% and used all of the $50,000 in salary, but it was still able to be unique with the build style.
Now, we get to turn back to my preferred PGA DFS set up, with a full field (125 players) and a traditional cut of the top 65 and ties after 36 holes on Friday at Bay Hill. Arnie’s tournament is one that has seen a wide range of scores due to the occasional winds that can wreak havoc around the course. Last year was the best example of that as just three players finished under par with Tyrrell Hatton leading the way at 4 under par. His score was an eight shot difference from Francesco Molinari’s win in 2019 and a fourteen shot difference to the win of Rory McIlroy back in 2018.
The key to figuring out this event will start with determining the winning score, but the weather forecast will make that a bit tricky. It appears that rain may come on Wednesday before the event, then again on Saturday before the winds really kick up for what is set to be Sunday’s final round. I’d expect that we see the rain help to soften the course some, but any help that may provide will be offset by the Sunday winds. I am making a not so confident prediction that we see the winning score this week hover around, if not just short, of double digits under par, making some of our scoring stats like Bogey Avoidance a big key for the week.
You can find a more detailed breakdown of the general course set up in my Tournament Preview Article. You’ll also want to check on Matt Vincenzi’s stats that matter article and Landon Silinsky’s Cash Game article in your prep for the tournament.
The stats I used to build out my model are listed below, and they key in on the scoring as mentioned, but also around some of the annual difficulties at Bay Hill. This course always ranks as one of the toughest in greens in regulation as well as some of the furthest in proximity to the hole. It will put a stress and lean to the better iron players, but also with everyone missing the greens, an elite short game is a necessity. I didn’t list it below, but I’ll also be taking a look at those players with a preference for putting on the bermudagrass surfaces that they will see this week.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie or Better Percentage
Top Tier
Patrick Reed ($10,200 DK/$11,600 FD)
My pick to win this week is Reed, and I will be heavily overweight on him versus the field in DFS. He has absolutely everything I am looking for in a player at the Arnold Palmer Invitational especially with the consistency he has shown this year with his approach play. Reed is coming off of a week at The Concession where he gained 5.4 strokes on the field with his irons, and was actually hindered a bit by his typically elite short game. I expect him to be able to bounce back around the greens, and put himself in position to contend throughout the weekend.
Reed should avoid any major ownership in DFS, as he is squeezed between a favorite new player in Viktor Hovland and the defending champion Tyrrell Hatton on DraftKings. I’d expect him to come in around 15% owned, and that will give me plenty of room to gain leverage on the field.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800 DK/$11,100 FD)
I did a double take when I saw Fitzpatrick’s name pop up in the second slot in my model, as I knew he had been playing well, but he’s not a name you expect to see before Rory or Hatton. We all know he is still searching for that elusive first win stateside, and if the last couple of weeks are an indication, it may be coming soon.
Fitzpatrick has always played well at Bay Hill, most notably in his runner up finish to Molinari in 2019. This is a course that makes a lot of sense to be a spot for his breakthrough, and he too should avoid any major ownership.
Jordan Spieth ($9,300 DK/$10,800 FD)
I didn’t see a scenario where I was writing up to pick Spieth at all about a month ago, and certainly not at over $9,000 on DraftKings, but here we are. We have seen quite the resurgence in play for the Texan as he has reeled off three consecutive Top 15 finishes including two top fives. He’s been every bit of the old Spieth, a little squirrely off the tee, but elite with his irons and deadly on and around the greens.
This week, he heads to Bay Hill for the first time and that is a bit curious as the course seems to be a perfect fit. He will have wide landing zones off the tee, and many of the holes are set to fit his right to left shot shape. As I’ve noted a couple of times, solid approach play and a strong short game are a must on this course, and those are the strengths in Spieth’s play. I’m in, for the first time in a long time, and I feel pretty good about it especially with marginal projected ownership.
Mid Tier
Francesco Molinari ($8,700 DK/$10,300 FD)
Since I am starting some lineups a bit uniquely, I’ll eat a bit of chalk in my next two plays. Molinari is set to be popular as he has made a resurgence of his own with a couple of Top 10 finishes in his last three appearances. He has always liked the track at Bay Hill, most highlighted by his win in 2019, but even prior to that he had multiple Top 10 finishes.
It’s encouraging to see Molinari’s play since the start of the new year as he’s come back to the form we came to know from him in prior seasons with his strong ball striking. He’s gained more than a stroke on the field with his irons in three out of four events this year. He seems to be shaping into form, at a course he loves, which will have me buying in even with his ownership approaching 20 percent.
Jason Kokrak ($8,100 DK/$9,800 FD)
A lot of people are going to go to Sam Burns in this range, and I get it, it makes a ton of sense. I am not fully fading him, but it’s certainly a spot where you can get leverage in lineups. Kokrak is one of my favorite leverage options this week even though he is garnering some attention as well.
We saw Kokrak during the swing season put together a great string of events, and even pull off his first TOUR win at the CJ Cup. Since then, he’s had to work to get his game back in order, and he started to show that over the last couple of weeks. One aspect that seems genuinely improved is the putter, which had always been his worst club in the bag. I really like the combination of ball striking and the solidified short game for Kokrak this week at Bay Hill.
Kevin Na ($8,000 DK/$9,700 FD)
As I’ve gone through the week, I’ve started to trend towards taking some of the better putters. Na certainly fits that mold as he is arguably the best putter on TOUR when he has it rolling. I love that reliability from Na, but I was also really encouraged by the way he closed out the week at the WGC Workday. His full tournament numbers will show that he lost strokes to the field on approach, but that damage was all done in the first two rounds. Na gained 2.5 strokes with his irons over the weekend at The Concession, and I’ll look for him to carry that play into this week at low ownership.
Cameron Tringale ($7,700 DK/$9,500 FD)
Possibly the surprise of the young year has been the steady play of Tringale. He’s been a player I have targeted in this article several times, and he’s finished no worse than 26th in his last four events. I won’t jump off now even as others are starting to jump on, because he’s shown some reliability that can be tough to find in this range. I’ll continue to ride the hot hand of Tringale and look for him to have a chance to improve on his 27th-place finish at this event in 2016.
Value Plays
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500 DK/$9,400 FD)
This is a play that will certainly fly under the radar in DFS this week, and I’m a big fan of Bezuidenhout’s prospects at Bay Hill. He made a name for himself on the European Tour toward the end of last season, as he won twice down the stretch of November and December. It’s hard to find that kind of winning upside in a player in this price range, but he is also a great course fit. Bezuidenhout is known for a sharp approach game and a great short game, which is right in line with our main needs for the API. He has typically gotten in trouble in events where he has to be precise off the tee, but that won’t be the case this week. All of this shapes up for him to make a run for one of his top finishes stateside.
Alex Noren ($7,300 DK/$8,700 FD)
Just a few years ago Alex Noren came over to play more on the PGA Tour and was ranked in the Top 20 in the world, but since that time his game has faded a bit. I seem to have a Noren issue where I look for reasons to play him when given the opportunity, so take that into consideration, but I do think he’s viable.
Noren finally flashed some good form at Riviera where he gained more than three strokes on that strong field with his irons. He would actually gain strokes on the field across all metrics, and he’s a player that is known for a strong short game especially on the greens. The Swede has the upside we want in a GPP lineup and as long as we can get him through the cut, I like his chances to outscore his price.
Chris Kirk ($7,000 DK/$8,700 FD)
No player jumped off the page in my model more than Kirk. He ranks in the Top 35 in all of my main statistical categories, and you simply can’t ask for more than that in this price range. Generally when a player fits that well statistically they jump out to many others too and garner high ownership, but Kirk appears to be dodging double-digit ownership.
Sleepers
Matthew NeSmith ($6,900 DK/$8,500 FD)
NeSmith only falls in the “sleeper” category based on price as it appears no one is sleeping on him. His form in the last two events has had him competing at a Top 20 clip in each of the last three events including a 7th place finish in Phoenix. This week he will get back on his preferred bermudagrass greens, making him even more attractive this week. He did miss the cut in his only appearance at the API last year, which can give you something to lean on if you want to avoid his ownership, which is approaching 15% early in the week.
Sebastian Munoz ($6,700 DK/$8,500 FD)
I’ve become a bit of a Munoz truther as I seem to see him as a better player than the oddsmakers. He is a player that finished in the Top 20 in all three playoff events last season, including two 8th place finishes. Those are elite level fields, and events that really highlight the potential of his game. Munoz has always shown to be streaky and he really started to get hot on the weekend at the WGC Workday. I will look for him to ride that good play into this week at Bay Hill where if he can make the cut, he has possibly the best scoring upside of anyone in this price range.
