The PGA Course Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool and metrics to highlight stats for the upcoming tournament.
Swing season is underway, and the fields are weak, but golf is back!
Let’s dive in.
As always, I back-tested various metrics in our PGA Models to discover those that have been the most valuable at The Old White. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 49.04 DraftKings points and a +1.43 Plus/Minus with a 48.6% Consistency Rating to the field.
Metrics that tested with at least a +2.00 Plus/Minus:
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +10.45
- Recent Birdies: +5.02
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +4.38
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.64
- Recent Driving Distance: +3.49
- Long-Term Birdies: +3.45
- Long-Term Eagles: +3.43
- Long-Term Bogeys: +3.14
- Long-Term Scrambling: +2.88
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +2.65
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +2.45
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.34
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +2.28
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +2.24
Key metrics: Greens in regulation, birdie or better scoring, par-4 and par-5 scoring, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2019 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
The first guy on my roster this week will be Viktor Hovland ($10,900 DraftKings; $12,100 FanDuel). He’s hit an excellent 74.5% of greens in regulation (GIR) while averaging 15.3 birdies per tournament and -1.4 adjusted strokes on par 4s over the past 75 weeks. Over his last 36 rounds, Hovland leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
To get to Hovland, you’ll need to save salary in some places. There are two other cheaper players that I like as core plays. One of them is Sepp Straka ($7,600 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel). Over his last 36 rounds, he is eighth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and his 13.8 birdies per tournament ranks top-20 in the field.
Cameron Tringale ($7,300 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) gained strokes on approach in six straight events before missing the cut at the Northern Trust. If he can regain that form, I like him on the lower end of the pricing spectrum. Over his last 36 rounds, Tringale ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and sixth in total strokes gained.
Roger Sloan’s ($6,500 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel) metrics don’t jump off the page, but he’s made six straight cuts. He also ranks inside the top-30 in birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks and is 25th in total strokes gained over his last 36 rounds. That’s not awful for someone who costs $6,500 on DraftKings.
Brian Harman ($8,900 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) currently has a Buzz Score of zero in our models. His long-term form doesn’t stand out, but he’s hit 70.1% of GIR in his last two tournaments and ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his last 36 rounds. Harman is typically a consistent putter, and if he can keep his irons going, he could be a solid tournament play at likely low ownership.
Denny McCarthy ($8,200 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel) is not a strong iron player, but his 14.1 birdies per tournament ranks 12th in the field this week. He’s also one of four players in the field who has gained strokes on par 3s, 4s and 5s over the last 75 weeks. McCarthy is one of the best putters in the field; even if his irons are just average this week, he shouldn’t have an issue making the cut with the weak competition.
- Jason Kokrak ($10,500 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel) is one of the best ball-strikers in the field, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his last 36 rounds.
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,700 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel) is a strong play with his -1.2 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 69.7% GIR hit over the last 75 weeks. He also leads the field in total strokes gained over the last 36 rounds.
- If we want solid ball-strikers, then it’s hard not to mention Byeong-Hun An ($9,500 DraftKings; $10,600 FanDuel). An ranks third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 14th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his last 36 rounds. His 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score is also the third-best mark in the field.
- Scottie Scheffler ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel) dominates par 4s and 5s, averaging -2.0 and -6.3 adjusted strokes on them over the last 75 weeks. This course should set up well for him as he’s hit 70.4% of GIR in the same time frame and ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his last 32 rounds.
- Joel Dahmen ($8,000 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) is in decent form, sporting a 69.6 recent Adj Rd Score over his last three tournaments. Over that time frame, he’s hit 70.4% of GIR and averaged 16.3 birdies per tournament.
- Sebastian Muñoz ($7,600 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) hasn’t missed a cut since the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and his 14.3 birdies per tournament is the 10th-best mark in the field.
- Lanto Griffin ($7,100 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel) is an intriguing choice with his 0.7 eagles and 13.7 birdies per tournament. Overall, he should do well on the par 4s and 5s since he’s averaged -0.1 and -5.3 adjusted strokes on them over the last 75 weeks.
Grayson Murray ($6,800 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel) has been playing through the Korn Ferry Finals, but he’s averaged a worrisome 10.8 birdies per tournament and an abysmal +2.2 and -3.4 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the last 75 weeks. If he can maintain his current form, then maybe he’ll be OK, but the long-term metrics are worrisome.
Cameron Smith ($9,000 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) probably has a good shot at making the cut in this underwhelming field, but I’m hesitant to back him since he does most of his work with the putter. Over the last 75 weeks, Smith has hit just 61.6% of GIR while averaging +1.1 and -3.8 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s. And over his last 36 rounds, he ranks 105th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.