Sunday’s main slate for Week 7 features 10 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 7.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Matthew Stafford ($6,400) + Puka Nacua ($8,400) + Tyler Higbee ($3,500)
Note: Nacua left Thursday’s practice early with an injury. Be sure to monitor his status.
Coming off a frustrating loss to the Cardinals and sitting at 2-4, the Rams are in a must-win situation vs. the Raiders this Sunday, and this is a perfect get-right spot. Las Vegas is giving up the sixth-most yards per pass (7.6), and both the Rams and Raiders rank top-10 in pace this season. Los Angeles has the third-highest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points), and the Rams, per usual, should rely on their passing attack: Los Angeles ranks seventh in PROE.
Stafford is averaging 7.2 YPA, and he has thrown 11 touchdowns to six picks. The quarterback has scored 25+ DraftKings points in 3-of-6 starts, and with Davante Adams (hamstring) and Terrance Ferguson (ankle) both out, Stafford’s targets are going to be heavily concentrated on Nacua and Higbee.
Adams has yet to miss a game this season, but last season, Nacua produced 29.4 DraftKings PPG in the three games he played without Adams, and Higbee went off for 20.1 DraftKings points in the lone game he played with Adams sidelined.
Nacua is handling a 31.3% target share, and he has scored 30+ DraftKings points in 2-of-4 games this season, despite Adams playing in every contest. Now, remove Adams and Ferguson from the equation, and Nacua’s upside is even greater. With those two off the field the last two seasons, his target share rises to a huge 35.6%.
Meanwhile, Higbee has scored 20.2, 11.7, 13.3, and 5.2 DraftKings points since Ferguson went down in Week 3. Higbee is running a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks, and he is seeing a 12% target share during this stretch. With Adams now sidelined as well, Higbee’s target share should increase. With Adams and Ferguson off the field the last two seasons, Higbee is garnering a target on 17% of his routes. The Raiders defense Higbee is facing is surrendering the third-most catches (40) and third-most touchdowns to tight ends (six).
Stafford, Nacua, and Higbee all have the potential for excellent performances, and this three-man stack shouldn’t be common in tournaments. Nacua is going to be chalky, and Higbee should hover around 10% ownership, but with Jared Goff and Jordan Love soaking up most of the ownership at quarterback, Stafford should come with single-digit ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Bam Knight ($4,100)
Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is slated to miss his second game in a row, as he hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday. CBSSports’ Matt Zenitz is reporting the expectation is that Love will remain out. With Love inactive this past Sunday vs. the Rams, many were on Tyler Allgeier, but Knight ended up being the better fantasy play, scoring 11.8 DraftKings points compared to 5.8 for Allgeier.
Allgeier led the way with 18 carries, but Knight was right behind him with 15, and Knight was far more effective, averaging 5.3 YPC, whereas Allgeier averaged just 2.1. Knight saw 45.5% of the running back carries on a 44% snap rate, and three of his rushes came in the red zone. As a receiver, Knight only ran a route on 29% of his team’s dropbacks, but he saw a target on 20% of those routes.
The Cardinals pulled off the road upset over the Rams with Knight playing a significant role, and he should see another big workload this Sunday vs. the Broncos, possibly out-touching Allgeier this time around.
Nevertheless, Knight should be in store for 15+ touches, and this is a better matchup than it seems, as Denver has been a run funnel this season, giving up the seventh-most yards per rush (4.7) but the fifth-fewest yards per pass (5.8).
Knight could do some damage in this spot, and at only $4,100, he is a low-risk, high-reward option that shouldn’t be popular.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Denzel Boston ($5,400)
This is a great time to buy low on Boston. After being held to 2.5 DraftKings points last Sunday vs. the Ravens, Boston is only expected to be around 3% owned on DraftKings according to our projections. He is facing the Titans in a strong bounce-back spot.
Tennessee is yielding the 11th-most yards per pass (7.0), and this defense uses zone coverage at the eighth-highest clip in the league (81%). Boston is averaging 2.6 YPRR vs. zone coverage this season. When he faced the zone-heavy Buccaneers in Week 2 – Tampa Bay ranks sixth in zone usage – he caught 5-of-7 targets for 75 yards, resulting in a season-best 20.5 DraftKings points.
Boston has scored 12+ DraftKings points in 4-of-6 games during his rookie season while handling an 18.4% target share on an 86.4% route rate. The wideout is leading the Browns with a 16.5 aDOT, and he has seen 12 targets over 20 yards, which ranks third in the league.
Boston should catch a few deep balls vs. the Titans, and 15-20 DraftKings points is within reach for the receiver.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($4,000)
It took a few games, but Pitts and Michael Penix have found their groove again. With the quarterback under center, Pitts has finished with 15.2 and 23 DraftKings points over the last two weeks, including three touchdowns.
Pitts has had an awesome role during this run, seeing a 19.7% target share while running a route on 67% of his team’s dropbacks. Five of Pitts’ 13 targets have come in the red zone, and he is averaging 1.9 YPRR.
Overall, Pitts is commanding a target on 24% of his routes with Penix on the field the last two seasons. This Sunday, the Falcons are facing the 49ers, who are giving up the seventh-fewest yards per pass this season (5.9).
However, this game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (49.5 points), and Atlanta is a 2.5-point underdog. The Falcons should be forced into a pass-heavy attack in this likely high-scoring affair, and Pitts should be one of the primary beneficiaries.
Chig Okonkwo just posted 13.9 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers last week, and Pitts should have an even better outing. Plus, the tight end is expected to get way overlooked, with our projections putting him at just around 5% ownership on DraftKings.
Pictured: Kyle Pitts
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
