Week 6 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks

D’Andre Swift ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)

The Bears were absolutely demolished by the Packers last week, but Swift still managed to salvage a solid fantasy performance. He had nine carries for 43 yards and a touchdown, and he added four catches and 30 yards through the air. The result was 17.3 DraftKings points and a +5.25 Plus/Minus.

Swift could be poised for a much bigger performance in Week 6. The Bears are expected to get Caleb Williams back this week, and he gives the offensive a massive upgrade. They erupted for 59 points with Williams in Week 1 before stumbling against the Vikings’ elite defense in Week 2. If they can look anything like they did in their first game, this has the potential to be one of the best units in football.

That’s being reflected in the Vegas data. Their game vs. the Falcons has a total of 51.0, while the Bears are listed as 1.5-point road favorites.

The biggest selling point for Swift involves Kyle Monangai. The two RBs have operated in a timeshare this season, but Monangai missed last week’s contest. He’s been absent at practice to start the week, so it’s possible he’s forced to miss another game.

If that happens, Swift will become one of the best values at the position. He combines elite upside with a reasonable price tag, especially on FanDuel. He ranks second on that site in projected Plus/Minus.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

The Patriots offense appears to be back. They got off to a rough start this season, with Drake Maye struggling mightily. However, they’ve put together back-to-back strong showings, including 45 points against the Raiders last week. The Raiders’ defense had played well this season, so it was an impressive performance.

Stevenson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the past two outings, and he’ll take over as the Patriots’ feature back following the injury to TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson has handled just 62% of the snaps and 45% of the carries in the Patriots’ backfield this season, and both numbers should see significant spikes with Henderson out of the picture. That will include almost all of the high-value touches around the goal line and as a receiver.

Stevenson is also expected to be in a favorable game script. The Patriots are listed as 7.5-point favorites vs. the Jets, and big favorites tend to deliver plenty of fantasy value at running back. Stevenson has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.81 on DraftKings when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).

There are plenty of solid value targets at running back this week, but Stevenson is clearly the best of the bunch. He ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he’s No. 2 on DraftKings.

Braelon Allen ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

Ultimately, it looks like a great week to save some money at RB. You could certainly spend up for one of the top options, but the guys in the $6-7k range stand out as the best values. Using two or three of them allows you to pay up for a couple of luxury picks with the rest of your lineup.

Allen will be opposing Stevenson in New England, and he should continue to serve as the Jets’ lead running back for as long as Breece Hall is injured. His usage has been borderline elite over the past two weeks: 89% snap share, 88% carry share, 12% target share. Ultimately, he’s handled nearly all of the rushing work, and he’s provided more than expected as a pass-catcher.

Unlike with Stevenson, Allen will have to navigate a tougher set of circumstances. He’s a pretty big underdog, so it’s possible that he gets scripted out. However, New England is merely 20th in EPA per rush defensively, so Allen should be successful if he gets his usual allotment of touches.

Overall, Allen is simply too cheap for his projected workload. He’s third at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks

With the Lions on bye this week, Robinson takes over at the top at the running back position. Only Jahmyr Gibbs has scored more fantasy points than Robinson at running back this season, and Robinson unsurprisingly has the top raw projections in our NFL Models.

From a usage standpoint, it’s hard to get much better than what Bijan brings to the table. He does lose some work to Brian Robinson between the 20s, but he dominates the important touches. His 19% target share is the second-best mark at the position, while he’s handled 88% of the carries from inside the five-yard line.

The Falcons appear to have avoided the disaster situation with Michael Penix, who will be under center vs. the Bears. That’s a huge deal for the Falcons’ offense, and it keeps Robinson’s fantasy value high. The matchup is also excellent, with Chicago ranking 23rd in EPA per rush this season. Add in the second-highest total on the main slate, and Robinson checks all the boxes.

Kyren Williams ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

Williams is criminally underpriced at $6,800 on DraftKings, making him more than just a tournament option there. He’s arguably the best cash game option on the slate, ranking first at the position in projected Plus/Minus.

Williams will lose some work to Blake Corum, but like with Robinson, he’s getting most of the high-value touches. Specifically, he’s had at least seven targets and six receptions in three straight games, and he’s scored three touchdowns over his past two outings.

The Rams also have the top offensive expectation on the slate. They’re listed as 12.5-point home favorites vs. the Cardinals, giving them an implied team total of 32.0 points. That’s the highest implied team total since the Lions faced the Giants last season, and Gibbs racked up 58.4 DraftKings points in that spot.

Williams obviously isn’t Gibbs – no one is – but his upside is still massive as a huge favorite. He has the second-highest optimal lineup rate in SimLabs, trailing only Robinson.

Kenneth Walker ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

Walker is in contention with Robinson for the title of “best running back in fantasy not named Jahmyr Gibbs.” While Robinson has more points this season, he’s done that thanks to an extra game played. In terms of fantasy points per game, Walker is the clear cut No. 2 back in football, averaging 26.0 0.5-PPR points per game this season.

Walker has always been a fantastic talent at the position, but he was limited by his situation in Seattle. They insisted on using him as part of a committee, but the Chiefs are letting him run wild. He’s posted an 83% carry share and 14% target share to start the year, and he’s averaged just under 25 touches per game. All that volume hasn’t hurt his efficiency so far, with Walker averaging a league-best 6.2 yards per carry.

Walker will take the field as an 8.5-point favorite vs. the Chargers. While LA’s defense hasn’t been terrible, it still results in a favorable game script projection for Walker. They’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and Walker will be their biggest test to date.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside

Jonathan Taylor ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

Taylor doesn’t really fit as a “contrarian” target this week. He’s going to be popular, but there are a lot of strong options at the position. This ultimately felt like the most fitting spot for him in this writeup.

The Colts are another team with a solid offensive outlook this week. They’re taking on the Titans, with the Colts listed as seven-point favorites. The Titans defense has actually been ok vs. the run, but Taylor could see a lot of volume in this matchup.

Taylor is one of the best pure runners in football, so it’s no surprise that he has historically done well as a big favorite. He’s posted a ridiculous +9.88 average Plus/Minus when favored by at least a touchdown. Only Robinson has a higher ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and Taylor is projected for roughly 5% lower ownership across the industry.

Cam Skattebo ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

Skattebo had a crushing fumble in overtime last week that would’ve led to a Giants loss if not for some of the worst clock management you’ll ever see. Instead, they managed to escape with a tie, and they’ll look to get back in the win column this week vs. the Saints.

Skattebo has yet to really get rolling since the team lost Jaxson Dart, but the Saints represent a phenomenal opportunity. They’re 31st in EPA per rush defensively, and no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to the position. Skattebo is a solid pivot off some of the chalkier runnings, especially on DraftKings given his 88% Bargain Rating.

Jaylen Warren ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

Warren was the chalk at running back last week, and he has been a workhorse for the Steelers over their past three outings. He’s played on 91% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he’s posted an 86% carry share and 16% target share. Overall, he’s the RB4 in terms of fantasy production over that time frame.

Warren has been priced up across the industry, and Rico Dowdle is expected to return to action this week. That should keep Warren mostly off the radar for DFS purposes.

However, it’s possible that Warren has taken this job and run with it. He’s been so good – and the Steelers’ offense so improved – that he should still handle the majority of the opportunities even with Dowdle back in the fold. His optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership across the industry.

Tony Pollard ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

The Titans’ offense has ranged from bad to awful for most of the season. However, Pollard has still generally gotten the job done for fantasy purposes. He’s scored at least 13.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, with last week’s blowout loss to the Texans the lone exception.

It’s always possible that the Titans get blown out again, but personally, I don’t think the Colts are a good enough team to make that happen. If the game stays competitive, Pollard should get plenty of cracks against the worst defense in the league in EPA per rush. That makes him an interesting value option, especially at almost no projected ownership.

Pictured: D’Andre Swift
Photo Credit: Imagn